https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/4-lessons-china-should-take-from-ukraine-pentagon-policy-chief/

"First, “I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US and Western intelligence, relative to their own intelligence capabilities,” Kahl said, noting that the indications are the Chinese did not believe Russia actually planned to invade Ukraine. “That was an intelligence failure for the PRC. And so I think they’ll have to work through what the implications of that are.”

Second, and relatedly, “I suspect they are surprised by the degree to which the United States and other Western democracies were effective in the information domain” by pushing out warnings about Russia’s intentions. PRC leadership is “very focused on kind of winning the propaganda contest and shaping the information environment, and I suspect they believe they’re much better at it than then Western democracies are.” The fact the US was able to declassify information, make it public on a global scale, and then have it be verified by facts on the ground runs counter to that internal narrative of information superiority, and “is something they likely took note of.”

Third, Kahl said he expects China’s military to be studying intently lessons of how a superior military can be stymied in an offensive operation.
....

Finally, Kahl said China was “likely surprised” by how the advanced economies around the world, not just in Europe, responded with sanctions and export controls at a high level including “measures that create some damage to our own economies.” He highlighted how nations in the Indo-Pacific agreed to sanctions efforts because of Ukraine as sending a signal of democracy versus autocracy."

On Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:52:12 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/4-lessons-china-should-take-from-ukraine-pentagon-policy-chief/
>
> "First, “I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US and Western intelligence, relative to their own intelligence capabilities,” Kahl said, noting that the indications are the Chinese did not believe Russia actually planned to invade Ukraine. “That was an intelligence failure for the PRC. And so I think they’ll have to work through what the implications of that are.”
>
> Second, and relatedly, “I suspect they are surprised by the degree to which the United States and other Western democracies were effective in the information domain” by pushing out warnings about Russia’s intentions. PRC leadership is “very focused on kind of winning the propaganda contest and shaping the information environment, and I suspect they believe they’re much better at it than then Western democracies are.” The fact the US was able to declassify information, make it public on a global scale, and then have it be verified by facts on the ground runs counter to that internal narrative of information superiority, and “is something they likely took note of.”
>
> Third, Kahl said he expects China’s military to be studying intently lessons of how a superior military can be stymied in an offensive operation.
> ...
>
> Finally, Kahl said China was “likely surprised” by how the advanced economies around the world, not just in Europe, responded with sanctions and export controls at a high level including “measures that create some damage to our own economies.” He highlighted how nations in the Indo-Pacific agreed to sanctions efforts because of Ukraine as sending a signal of democracy versus autocracy."

Indo-Pacific support is only a few nations. They are allies to US. In Southeast Asia nations, only one nation supported. The rest of them was not interested to join in their sanction. They don't even want to go to them in US by giving excuses of not free to go to US in April. After that, US then used Japan PM to visit those nations to persuade them but they ignored him and he left with no answer of support for them on sanction on Russia. So this chief talked with his tongue out - lies.

On 20 Jun 2022 at 19:03:05 CEST, "stoney" <papajoe168@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:52:12 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
>> <https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/4-lessons-china-should-take-from-ukraine-pentagon-policy-chief/>
>>
>> "First, “I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US and Western
>> intelligence, relative to their own intelligence capabilities,” Kahl said,
>> noting that the indications are the Chinese did not believe Russia actually
>> planned to invade Ukraine. “That was an intelligence failure for the PRC. And
>> so I think they’ll have to work through what the implications of that are.”
>>
>> Second, and relatedly, “I suspect they are surprised by the degree to which
>> the United States and other Western democracies were effective in the
>> information domain” by pushing out warnings about Russia’s intentions. PRC
>> leadership is “very focused on kind of winning the propaganda contest and
>> shaping the information environment, and I suspect they believe they’re much
>> better at it than then Western democracies are.” The fact the US was able to
>> declassify information, make it public on a global scale, and then have it be
>> verified by facts on the ground runs counter to that internal narrative of
>> information superiority, and “is something they likely took note of.”
>>
>> Third, Kahl said he expects China’s military to be studying intently lessons
>> of how a superior military can be stymied in an offensive operation.
>> ...
>>
>> Finally, Kahl said China was “likely surprised” by how the advanced economies
>> around the world, not just in Europe, responded with sanctions and export
>> controls at a high level including “measures that create some damage to our
>> own economies.” He highlighted how nations in the Indo-Pacific agreed to
>> sanctions efforts because of Ukraine as sending a signal of democracy versus
>> autocracy."
>
> Indo-Pacific support is only a few nations. They are allies to US. In
> Southeast Asia nations, only one nation supported. The rest of them was not
> interested to join in their sanction. They don't even want to go to them in US
> by giving excuses of not free to go to US in April. After that, US then used
> Japan PM to visit those nations to persuade them but they ignored him and he
> left with no answer of support for them on sanction on Russia. So this chief
> talked with his tongue out - lies.

What do you expect, because of the COVID the economy is going bad, now if you
talk about sanctions the regional economy will become worst.
Using gasoline price as an indicator, only in Singapore the price is
skyrocketing. I know even without the sanction the gasoline price in Singapore
is already the most expensive within ASEAN, but now it is in its own league it
is almost the same as Scandinavia countries, even surpassing Sweden.

Before the war.
<https://web.archive.org/web/20220118112406/https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/>

Current
<https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/>

I know because of the war, even without sanctions, the economy will become
worst but for some countries their priority on their own country, which I
think is the best choice.

It is the same as the Covid policy from Sweden versus all other parts of the
world. Yes, the Swedish economy going down but it will not as bad as if they
implement the same policy in other parts of the world.

I think that what is happening, people try to make the best for their own
interests.

It is also the same as, when the prices of cooking oil went up, the Indonesian
government banned the cooking oil export. In the end, even though the price
still went up, but it is not as bad as if they did not ban it.

In short, they don't want the war because it will affect the economy but on
the other hand, if they do something extreme it will affect their own people.

But I believe it will a different story if China invades Taiwan since most
ASEAN will think about who next since the territorial south china sea is still
an ongoing dispute. if it happens at least ASEAN will be the first one to
respond since who can guarantee that China will not use its military might to
claim the south china sea and then invade other countries.

The only question how big is the reaction is.
--
-alien-
~ Work like you don't need the money. ~
~ Love like you've never been hurt. ~
~ Dance like nobody is looking. ~

On Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:52:12 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/4-lessons-china-should-take-from-ukraine-pentagon-policy-chief/
>
> "First, “I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US and Western intelligence, relative to their own intelligence capabilities,” Kahl said, noting that the indications are the Chinese did not believe Russia actually planned to invade Ukraine. “That was an intelligence failure for the PRC. And so I think they’ll have to work through what the implications of that are.”
>
> Second, and relatedly, “I suspect they are surprised by the degree to which the United States and other Western democracies were effective in the information domain” by pushing out warnings about Russia’s intentions. PRC leadership is “very focused on kind of winning the propaganda contest and shaping the information environment, and I suspect they believe they’re much better at it than then Western democracies are.” The fact the US was able to declassify information, make it public on a global scale, and then have it be verified by facts on the ground runs counter to that internal narrative of information superiority, and “is something they likely took note of.”
>
> Third, Kahl said he expects China’s military to be studying intently lessons of how a superior military can be stymied in an offensive operation.
> ...
>
> Finally, Kahl said China was “likely surprised” by how the advanced economies around the world, not just in Europe, responded with sanctions and export controls at a high level including “measures that create some damage to our own economies.” He highlighted how nations in the Indo-Pacific agreed to sanctions efforts because of Ukraine as sending a signal of democracy versus autocracy."

If Western intelligence is so good why did they not ready or prepare support to Ukraine? Germany is sluggish in the past 4 months of war and is not leading the EU to respond to that war being waged on Ukraine. They reacted nonchalantly with no interest to help Ukraine at all.

Now, after much US urging, and now towards the 4th months of war, Germany is being reluctantly forced to respond to Ukraine request made to EU for heavy weapons. They now are going to supply some long range howitzers and they have been delivered today to Ukraine. But they fear there are risks of being misfired into Russia territory by Ukrainians. Any misfiring can evoke a war on Germany too. Germany may be sending a team to accompany their guns to ensure Ukraine's firing of the guns will not be trajected into Russian towns or cities.

Seriously, as leader of EU, they actually want Ukraine to lose and if possible, to fail too. What makes them think China was not aware of the invasion potential that will take place is not for them to know. The Chinese has its own intelligence that even chicken making rattling noise and whispering sound can be differentiated into different awareness for their owner to know when to react to them.

On Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 12:28:59 AM UTC-4, borie wrote:
> On Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:52:12 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/4-lessons-china-should-take-from-ukraine-pentagon-policy-chief/
> >
> > "First, “I suspect they are surprised at the quality of US and Western intelligence, relative to their own intelligence capabilities,” Kahl said, noting that the indications are the Chinese did not believe Russia actually planned to invade Ukraine. “That was an intelligence failure for the PRC. And so I think they’ll have to work through what the implications of that are.”
> >
> > Second, and relatedly, “I suspect they are surprised by the degree to which the United States and other Western democracies were effective in the information domain” by pushing out warnings about Russia’s intentions. PRC leadership is “very focused on kind of winning the propaganda contest and shaping the information environment, and I suspect they believe they’re much better at it than then Western democracies are.” The fact the US was able to declassify information, make it public on a global scale, and then have it be verified by facts on the ground runs counter to that internal narrative of information superiority, and “is something they likely took note of.”
> >
> > Third, Kahl said he expects China’s military to be studying intently lessons of how a superior military can be stymied in an offensive operation.
> > ...
> >
> > Finally, Kahl said China was “likely surprised” by how the advanced economies around the world, not just in Europe, responded with sanctions and export controls at a high level including “measures that create some damage to our own economies.” He highlighted how nations in the Indo-Pacific agreed to sanctions efforts because of Ukraine as sending a signal of democracy versus autocracy."
> If Western intelligence is so good why did they not ready or prepare support to Ukraine? Germany is sluggish in the past 4 months of war and is not leading the EU to respond to that war being waged on Ukraine. They reacted nonchalantly with no interest to help Ukraine at all.
>
> Now, after much US urging, and now towards the 4th months of war, Germany is being reluctantly forced to respond to Ukraine request made to EU for heavy weapons. They now are going to supply some long range howitzers and they have been delivered today to Ukraine. But they fear there are risks of being misfired into Russia territory by Ukrainians. Any misfiring can evoke a war on Germany too. Germany may be sending a team to accompany their guns to ensure Ukraine's firing of the guns will not be trajected into Russian towns or cities.
>
> Seriously, as leader of EU, they actually want Ukraine to lose and if possible, to fail too. What makes them think China was not aware of the invasion potential that will take place is not for them to know. The Chinese has its own intelligence that even chicken making rattling noise and whispering sound can be differentiated into different awareness for their owner to know when to react to them.

Biden is 79. He looks fit physically. But likely to suffer some degree of neuro-degenerative disorder
as a result of his age. Overall, I still have to say that he has better understanding of the reality in
comparison to some younger officials.
To be sure, officials should try to tell a good story of the US is strong and capable. But they should also
know when not to say too much to keep US credible.

Jun 16, NBCnews.com headline and subheadline:
"When the secretaries of Defense and State said publicly the U.S. wants Ukraine to win and weaken Russia,
Biden said tone it down. “He was not happy with the rhetoric,” said one official familiar with President
Biden's conference call with Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/secretaries-defense-state-said-publicly-us-wanted-ukraine-win-biden-sa-rcna33826