"SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s behavior.

Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough, sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are, counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched Putin and his associates.
....
We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be eye-popping.

Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?

SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala] Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
....
SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and severe.

The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up paying more than would have otherwise been the case."

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/

On Monday, June 6, 2022 at 11:45:34 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> "SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s behavior.
>
> Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough, sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are, counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched Putin and his associates.
> ...
> We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be eye-popping.
>
> Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?
>
> SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala] Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
> ...
> SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and severe.
>
> The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up paying more than would have otherwise been the case."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/

No doubt everyone will end up paying more. What is more so is the patents, too. Free up the patents so that everyone can use and can also increase their innovations, too.

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> "SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic
> weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war
> against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally
> ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s
> behavior.
>
> Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough,
> sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are,
> counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s
> regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have
> created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched
> Putin and his associates.
> ...
> We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a
> scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment
> banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and
> NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just
> the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be
> eye-popping.
>
> Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?
>
> SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala]
> Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who
> indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil
> and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will
> decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies
> don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by
> Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
> ...
> SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of
> Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of
> insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and
> severe.
>
> The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will
> become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as
> it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up
> paying more than would have otherwise been the case."
>
> https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/

1. Are economic sanction cheaper than a big military war (other than blitzkrieg)?
2. "Round the flag effect" is quite likely in *short* term (a few tears max).
3. In *longer* term (5 years+) Russia will sell to other (non E.U.) markets.
EU ban will make Russian oil cheaper e.g. for PRC.

USA+EU in practice "accepted" annexation of Crimea in step 1. Two people
republics were step 2. Open Russian invasion is step 3. What's going
to be step 4 without *strong* (economic) reaction?
Chamberlain's "Peace in our times" (1938 UK+France and nazi-Germany"
does not work with Putin too IMHO. Two years later (1940) conquered
half of France in a few weeks.

Economic sanctions *will be* costly (mostly) for EU but lack of sanctions
may be *MUCH* more costly, costly as World War Two (in Europe).
So it is not a matter of "Is it going to be cheap?".
It is a matter of "Is it worth to be done?".

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| "Right now I feel that I've got my feet on the ground as far as my
| head is concerned." (Baseball pitcher Bo Belinsky)

On Tuesday, June 7, 2022 at 5:40:19 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > "SH: Like all sanctions, those being imposed on Russia are economic
> > weapons that are being deployed in what is, in fact, an undeclared war
> > against Russia. And like all sanctions, they have proved to be totally
> > ineffective in accomplishing their stated goal of changing Russia’s
> > behavior.
> >
> > Sanctions have never won a war. And if that’s not bad enough,
> > sanctions have been, as economic sanctions often are,
> > counterproductive. Indeed, instead of toppling Vladimir Putin’s
> > regime, the sanctions have done what they typically do: they have
> > created a “rally ’round the flag effect,” which has further entrenched
> > Putin and his associates.
> > ...
> > We don’t have any official total cost estimates, ... we do have a
> > scattering of cost estimates on the Russian sanctions from investment
> > banks, central banks, international organizations like the IMF, and
> > NGOs. Those estimates, which are somewhat ad hoc and partial – just
> > the tip of the iceberg – indicate that the costs of sanctions will be
> > eye-popping.
> >
> > Does the US have the capacity to replace Russian gas?
> >
> > SH: In a word, “No.” President Biden and Vice-President [Kamala]
> > Harris have been busy promising oil and gas to every cat and dog who
> > indicates a need. The problem is that private companies produce oil
> > and gas in the US, and they, not the president or vice-president, will
> > decide who to sell their wares to. Furthermore, those US companies
> > don’t have the capacity to fill the voids that will be created by
> > Brussels’ bans on the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
> > ...
> > SH: The impact on the EU countries, with perhaps the exception of
> > Hungary, of the ban on Russian oil and gas and the blocking of
> > insurers from covering Russian cargoes will be very negative and
> > severe.
> >
> > The US will not escape unharmed. The global oil and gas markets will
> > become politicized and balkanized, with oil not flowing as freely as
> > it has for the past four decades. As a result, everyone will end up
> > paying more than would have otherwise been the case."
> >
> > https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/how-the-west-miscalculated-its-ability-to-punish-russia/
> 1. Are economic sanction cheaper than a big military war (other than blitzkrieg)?
> 2. "Round the flag effect" is quite likely in *short* term (a few tears max).
> 3. In *longer* term (5 years+) Russia will sell to other (non E.U.) markets.
> EU ban will make Russian oil cheaper e.g. for PRC.
>
> USA+EU in practice "accepted" annexation of Crimea in step 1. Two people
> republics were step 2. Open Russian invasion is step 3. What's going
> to be step 4 without *strong* (economic) reaction?
> Chamberlain's "Peace in our times" (1938 UK+France and nazi-Germany"
> does not work with Putin too IMHO. Two years later (1940) conquered
> half of France in a few weeks.
>
> Economic sanctions *will be* costly (mostly) for EU but lack of sanctions
> may be *MUCH* more costly, costly as World War Two (in Europe).
> So it is not a matter of "Is it going to be cheap?".
> It is a matter of "Is it worth to be done?".
>
1. Russia taking Crimea and the Donbas region has a historical, USSR root. No
reason to generalize forward. If Russia is such a clear and present threat to
NATO nations, the US should have no reason to restrain itself from deeper
involvement.

2. The sanction does not seems to achieve anything. America is dialing back its
call on getting Putin off from his Russian presidency and/or weakening Russia.

3. It is also a matter of whether the US and its NATO allies have the right to impose
a cost all over the world.

From the same article:
"While the humanitarian and economic costs imposed on Russia will be massive,
they will pale in comparison to the costs imposed on those outside of Russia. In
terms of incidence, the EU will bear [a huge] cost, much greater than the US. But
the costs and disruptions caused by sanctions won’t be limited to the EU and the
US. They will spread throughout the world, putting significant burdens on poor
countries and poor peoples."