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interests / soc.culture.china / What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

SubjectAuthor
* What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before Itltlee1
+* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Oleg Smirnov
|+* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
||+* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Oleg Smirnov
|||+- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
|||`* What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace DealOleg Smirnov
||| +- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced tostoney
||| `* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace A. Filip
|||  `- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
||`* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced tostoney
|| `* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
||  `- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toborie
|`* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace A. Filip
| `* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
|  `* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace A. Filip
|   `- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced toltlee1
+- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before ItA. Filip
`* Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Beforestoney
 `- Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Beforeltlee1

1
What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: What_Sort_of_Losses_Can_Ukraine_Tolerate_Before_It
’s_Forced_to_Seek_a_Peace_Deal_With_Russia?_
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Fri, 3 Jun 2022 11:16 UTC

"How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of thousands, and the country’s public opinion accepts these figures for now. Yes, the losses are high, but they are successfully holding back “the orcs,” as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev’s propaganda. However, these are the best, most experienced and most motivated fighters, and – at least in the coming months – it will be hard to replace them. In addition, the defensive tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine work well in the fortified positions that have been created in the Donbass in recent years. How untrained recruits will perform outside of such positions and against an army experienced in assault operations, only the future will show.

How many weapons is Ukraine prepared to lose?
On the face of it, given Kiev seems to have a ‘cheat code’ for an endless supply of ammunition and guns from the West, this issue is irrelevant. But the backbone of an army, especially a defending army, is not hipster drones or single, obsolete armored vehicles, but artillery: guns, howitzers, MLRS, and mortars. With the current scale of combat operations, thousands or tens of thousands, and millions of pieces of ammunition for them are needed.

Yes, the USSR accumulated weapons for a couple of world wars, and the lion’s share of these weapons was kept in Ukraine and now serves Kiev’s needs. Yes, military aid is brought in from around the world, but the flow is less than the losses at the front. As the Soviet stockpile is exhausted, the West will face the task of fully supplying Ukraine with military supplies on a scale not seen in decades; it will have to supply a battle-hardened but severely depleted army with a significant percentage of untrained recruits, which means even more casualties and the need for even greater supplies.

How long will Ukraine survive economically?

They say Ukraine’s GDP will fall twofold this year, by about $100 billion. Keeping the economy afloat in the face of mobilization, loss of territory, stagnant businesses, and currency devaluation will require considerable investment from the West. Even a full confiscation of Russian foreign currency reserves would only partly compensate for this, as there is still the issue of military supplies, which requires up to another $1 billion daily.

What about Russia? As long as the Russian Army’s tactic of slow advance with reliance on artillery is paying off, we should not expect it to change. If the Russian Armed Forces completely stall, whether in defense of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, or on the outskirts of Kharkov or Nikolaev, the issue of a broad military mobilization will have to be resolved, which is still politically unacceptable for the Kremlin."

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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From: os3...@netc.eu (Oleg Smirnov)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
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 by: Oleg Smirnov - Sat, 4 Jun 2022 03:12 UTC

ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062-bfd8-249ce32e4d76n@googlegroups.com>

> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.

Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
fantastic figures for Russian losses.

Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.

> "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.

"Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sat, 4 Jun 2022 15:25 UTC

On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> > "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> > number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> > thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> fantastic figures for Russian losses.
>
> Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> > "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
> "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>

You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
and he just acted out his presidential role every night?

Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.

Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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From: os3...@netc.eu (Oleg Smirnov)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
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 by: Oleg Smirnov - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 03:07 UTC

ltlee1, <news:1336c970-0fd6-4c4f-9d50-2ca233a566dbn@googlegroups.com>
> On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:

>>> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
>>> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the
>>> total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens
>>> of thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures
>>> for now.
>>
>> Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
>> realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
>> massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
>> other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
>> fantastic figures for Russian losses.
>>
>> Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
>> per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
>> times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
>>
>>> "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
>>
>> "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>
>
> You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
> himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
> a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
> he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
> and he just acted out his presidential role every night?

Zelensky continues to play a celebrity, but this time mainly in
front of the "international community" <https://bit.ly/3th9ifp>.
And Zelensky before and after the election (that happened in the
Kiev-controlled territory in spring of 2019) is somewhat like two
different individuals. The voters preffered him to Poroshenko
mainly because he definitely promised to end the Donbas-related
hostilities and restore popular confidence in governance (which
had dropped to a very low level in the end of the Poroshenko's
term). There was also a hope that he would mute the lynching-like
activism of the domestic Nazi(-like) radicals. However, later it
turned out that none of this came true.

Few months after Zelensky had taken office, made first reshuffles,
and conversations with the Atlanticist leaders, it became clear
the conditions set by the Atlanticism in combination with the
constraints from the domestic structures stuffed with people whom
the Atlanticism bribed and / or nurtured before, will keep a firm
cinch on the regime's principal policies regardless of what
Zelensky promised or hinted while campaigning for president.

So I believe he knows pretty well what is relly going on, but it
would be wrong to see him as a figure in position to principally
decide something.

> Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
> average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
> each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.
>
> Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
> do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?
>
>

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia? [Link stupid!]

<anfi+pb4az2fvif-m650@wp.eu>

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Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It
’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia? [Link
stupid!]
Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2022 07:22:43 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 07:22 UTC

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the
> total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at
> tens of thousands, and the country’s public opinion accepts these
> figures for now. Yes, the losses are high, but they are successfully
> holding back “the orcs,” as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev’s
> propaganda. However, these are the best, most experienced and most
> motivated fighters, and – at least in the coming months – it will be
> hard to replace them. In addition, the defensive tactics of the Armed
> Forces of Ukraine work well in the fortified positions that have been
> created in the Donbass in recent years. How untrained recruits will
> perform outside of such positions and against an army experienced in
> assault operations, only the future will show.
>
> How many weapons is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> On the face of it, given Kiev seems to have a ‘cheat code’ for an
> endless supply of ammunition and guns from the West, this issue is
> irrelevant. But the backbone of an army, especially a defending army,
> is not hipster drones or single, obsolete armored vehicles, but
> artillery: guns, howitzers, MLRS, and mortars. With the current scale
> of combat operations, thousands or tens of thousands, and millions of
> pieces of ammunition for them are needed.
>
> Yes, the USSR accumulated weapons for a couple of world wars, and the
> lion’s share of these weapons was kept in Ukraine and now serves
> Kiev’s needs. Yes, military aid is brought in from around the world,
> but the flow is less than the losses at the front. As the Soviet
> stockpile is exhausted, the West will face the task of fully supplying
> Ukraine with military supplies on a scale not seen in decades; it will
> have to supply a battle-hardened but severely depleted army with a
> significant percentage of untrained recruits, which means even more
> casualties and the need for even greater supplies.
>
> How long will Ukraine survive economically?
>
> They say Ukraine’s GDP will fall twofold this year, by about $100
> billion. Keeping the economy afloat in the face of mobilization, loss
> of territory, stagnant businesses, and currency devaluation will
> require considerable investment from the West. Even a full
> confiscation of Russian foreign currency reserves would only partly
> compensate for this, as there is still the issue of military supplies,
> which requires up to another $1 billion daily.
>
> What about Russia? As long as the Russian Army’s tactic of slow
> advance with reliance on artillery is paying off, we should not expect
> it to change. If the Russian Armed Forces completely stall, whether in
> defense of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, or on the outskirts of Kharkov or
> Nikolaev, the issue of a broad military mobilization will have to be
> resolved, which is still politically unacceptable for the Kremlin."

Could you avoid quoting without providing link for the source? [Source]

It is a matter of principles. "Easy" successes make Putin want even more.
NEVER forget "Chamberlain's peace (1938)" [A] - hitler/nazi-germany
wanted even more pretty soon. PRC would not "rationally" dump
One China policy for a few percent of GDP, would it?

I do not say I would make the same choices as Ukraine but it is
"their choice, their consequences.

[Source] https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/what-losses-can-ukraine-tolerate/
> 30.05.2022 ; What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s
> Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
> […] This article was originally published on globalaffairs.ru and
> translated and re-published by RT.com.

[A} https://www.history.com/news/chamberlain-declares-peace-for-our-time-75-years-ago
> Chamberlain Declares “Peace for Our Time”
> On September 30, 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain
> received a rowdy homecoming after signing a peace pact with Nazi
> Germany.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Treat your friend as if he might become an enemy.
| (Publilius Syrus)

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2022 07:39:48 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 07:39 UTC

"Oleg Smirnov" <os333@netc.eu> wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062-bfd8-249ce32e4d76n@googlegroups.com>
>
>> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
>> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
>> number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
>> thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
>
> Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> fantastic figures for Russian losses.
>
> Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> […]

Does Russians realize really realize the scale of real russian loses?
Does it create future political IED?

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Brigands will demand your money or your life, but a woman will
| demand both. (Samuel Butler)

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re:_What_Sort_of_Losses_Can_Ukraine_Tolerate_Before_
It’s_Forced_to_Seek_a_Peace_Deal_With_Russia?
From: papajoe...@yahoo.com (stoney)
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 by: stoney - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 09:55 UTC

On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 7:16:08 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of thousands, and the country’s public opinion accepts these figures for now. Yes, the losses are high, but they are successfully holding back “the orcs,” as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev’s propaganda. However, these are the best, most experienced and most motivated fighters, and – at least in the coming months – it will be hard to replace them. In addition, the defensive tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine work well in the fortified positions that have been created in the Donbass in recent years. How untrained recruits will perform outside of such positions and against an army experienced in assault operations, only the future will show.
>
> How many weapons is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> On the face of it, given Kiev seems to have a ‘cheat code’ for an endless supply of ammunition and guns from the West, this issue is irrelevant. But the backbone of an army, especially a defending army, is not hipster drones or single, obsolete armored vehicles, but artillery: guns, howitzers, MLRS, and mortars. With the current scale of combat operations, thousands or tens of thousands, and millions of pieces of ammunition for them are needed.
>
> Yes, the USSR accumulated weapons for a couple of world wars, and the lion’s share of these weapons was kept in Ukraine and now serves Kiev’s needs. Yes, military aid is brought in from around the world, but the flow is less than the losses at the front. As the Soviet stockpile is exhausted, the West will face the task of fully supplying Ukraine with military supplies on a scale not seen in decades; it will have to supply a battle-hardened but severely depleted army with a significant percentage of untrained recruits, which means even more casualties and the need for even greater supplies.
>
> How long will Ukraine survive economically?
>
> They say Ukraine’s GDP will fall twofold this year, by about $100 billion. Keeping the economy afloat in the face of mobilization, loss of territory, stagnant businesses, and currency devaluation will require considerable investment from the West. Even a full confiscation of Russian foreign currency reserves would only partly compensate for this, as there is still the issue of military supplies, which requires up to another $1 billion daily.
>
> What about Russia? As long as the Russian Army’s tactic of slow advance with reliance on artillery is paying off, we should not expect it to change. If the Russian Armed Forces completely stall, whether in defense of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, or on the outskirts of Kharkov or Nikolaev, the issue of a broad military mobilization will have to be resolved, which is still politically unacceptable for the Kremlin."

In response to the subject title, it is not possible for Ukraine to enter into peace deal when Russia has abandoned it. Russia is already in progress to takeover the eastern side of Ukraine. Their war power machine will take the 20% of eastern Ukraine will end soon. too. Both side will have heavy losses, but Russia will have an upper hands on Ukraine. Ukraine's resistance and victory will depend on the how much advanced weapons they received from their allies.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: papajoe...@yahoo.com (stoney)
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 by: stoney - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 10:21 UTC

On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:25:07 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> > > "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > > Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> > > number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> > > thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> >
> > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> > > "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
> > "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>
> You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
> himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
> a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
> he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
> and he just acted out his presidential role every night?
>
> Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
> average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
> each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.
>
> Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
> do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?

Zelensky himself should know his losses. But leader normally will not tell their true figures. It will not be told even until years later. The losses will be for media and historians to guess and put a figure for it. The same goes to Russia's losses, too. Putin will not tell and forever the Duma and Russian people will not know it. What is at stake now is complete takeover of eastern Ukraine in 2 week's time. What is important to Putin is he knows that the war will end his favor and not Ukraine. Putin knows that US has failed to participate and challenge him. Hence the losses of dead to Putin is nothing and not important to Russia's goals.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It’s Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re:_What_Sort_of_Losses_Can_Ukraine_Tolerate_Before_
It’s_Forced_to_Seek_a_Peace_Deal_With_Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 11:27 UTC

On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 5:55:49 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:
> On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 7:16:08 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of thousands, and the country’s public opinion accepts these figures for now. Yes, the losses are high, but they are successfully holding back “the orcs,” as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev’s propaganda. However, these are the best, most experienced and most motivated fighters, and – at least in the coming months – it will be hard to replace them. In addition, the defensive tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine work well in the fortified positions that have been created in the Donbass in recent years. How untrained recruits will perform outside of such positions and against an army experienced in assault operations, only the future will show.
> >
> > How many weapons is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > On the face of it, given Kiev seems to have a ‘cheat code’ for an endless supply of ammunition and guns from the West, this issue is irrelevant. But the backbone of an army, especially a defending army, is not hipster drones or single, obsolete armored vehicles, but artillery: guns, howitzers, MLRS, and mortars. With the current scale of combat operations, thousands or tens of thousands, and millions of pieces of ammunition for them are needed.
> >
> > Yes, the USSR accumulated weapons for a couple of world wars, and the lion’s share of these weapons was kept in Ukraine and now serves Kiev’s needs. Yes, military aid is brought in from around the world, but the flow is less than the losses at the front. As the Soviet stockpile is exhausted, the West will face the task of fully supplying Ukraine with military supplies on a scale not seen in decades; it will have to supply a battle-hardened but severely depleted army with a significant percentage of untrained recruits, which means even more casualties and the need for even greater supplies.
> >
> > How long will Ukraine survive economically?
> >
> > They say Ukraine’s GDP will fall twofold this year, by about $100 billion. Keeping the economy afloat in the face of mobilization, loss of territory, stagnant businesses, and currency devaluation will require considerable investment from the West. Even a full confiscation of Russian foreign currency reserves would only partly compensate for this, as there is still the issue of military supplies, which requires up to another $1 billion daily.
> >
> > What about Russia? As long as the Russian Army’s tactic of slow advance with reliance on artillery is paying off, we should not expect it to change. If the Russian Armed Forces completely stall, whether in defense of Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, or on the outskirts of Kharkov or Nikolaev, the issue of a broad military mobilization will have to be resolved, which is still politically unacceptable for the Kremlin."

> In response to the subject title, it is not possible for Ukraine to enter into peace deal when Russia has abandoned it. Russia is already in progress to takeover the eastern side of Ukraine. Their war power machine will take the 20% of eastern Ukraine will end soon. too. Both side will have heavy losses, but Russia will have an upper hands on Ukraine. Ukraine's resistance and victory will depend on the how much advanced weapons they received from their allies.

At this stage, it is unlikely that US led NATO nations will reverse the sanctions any time soon.
Russia may not care about any peace deal. It can always claim victory and cease fire unilaterally,
at least temporarily, keeping whatever it get. And then harasses Ukraine as it sees fit.

In this sense, Russia cannot lose on the battle field.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 11:42 UTC

On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 6:21:52 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:
> On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:25:07 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> > > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> > > > "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > > > Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> > > > number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> > > > thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> > > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> > > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> > > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> > > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> > > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> > >
> > > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> > > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> > > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> > > > "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
> > > "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>
> > You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
> > himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
> > a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
> > he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
> > and he just acted out his presidential role every night?
> >
> > Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
> > average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
> > each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.
> >
> > Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
> > do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?

> Zelensky himself should know his losses. But leader normally will not tell their true figures. It will not be told even until years later. The losses will be for media and historians to guess and put a figure for it.
The same goes to Russia's losses, too. Putin will not tell and forever the Duma and Russian people will not know it. What is at stake now is complete takeover of eastern Ukraine in 2 week's time. What is important to Putin is he knows that the war will end his favor and not Ukraine. Putin knows that US has failed to participate and challenge him. Hence the losses of dead to Putin is nothing and not important to Russia's goals.

Zelensky was the people's choice. But it does not mean he is the military's
choice. He is a total outsider to Ukraine's military establishment. How much has
he entrenched himself and his people into the Ukrainian governing bureaucracy
is still unknown to foreigners and to perhaps to most Ukrainians as well. In
comparison, Trump is a lot more entrenched because of America's polarized
politics and because the long election season.

IMO, he is at present more a tool for the generals and admirals for weapon and
other assistance. Over the Western media, he is stuck with his angry man image
constantly complaining against US allies for not doing enough.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 11:54 UTC

On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 3:40:36 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> "Oleg Smirnov" <os...@netc.eu> wrote:
> > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> >
> >> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> >> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> >> number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> >> thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> >
> > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> >
> > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> > […]
>
> Does Russians realize really realize the scale of real russian loses?
Putin, AFAIK, has near total control over the Russian military apparatus. Can
one say the same about Zelensky. And of course, Russia has a population
3+ times bigger than Ukraine. More important, the war was fought in Ukraine,
not in Russia. And it is losing population over emigration.

> Does it create future political IED?
Politically, political IED should be expected from the beginning. The issue
is which country or countries do not mind to see Ukraine turned into a
failed state.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 12:38 UTC

On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:08:54 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:1336c970-0fd6-4c4f...@googlegroups.com>
> > On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
>
> >>> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> >>> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the
> >>> total number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens
> >>> of thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures
> >>> for now.
> >>
> >> Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> >> realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> >> massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> >> other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> >> fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> >>
> >> Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> >> per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> >> times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> >>
> >>> "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
> >>
> >> "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>
> >
> > You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
> > himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
> > a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
> > he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
> > and he just acted out his presidential role every night?
> Zelensky continues to play a celebrity, but this time mainly in
> front of the "international community" <https://bit.ly/3th9ifp>.
> And Zelensky before and after the election (that happened in the
> Kiev-controlled territory in spring of 2019) is somewhat like two
> different individuals. The voters preffered him to Poroshenko
> mainly because he definitely promised to end the Donbas-related
> hostilities and restore popular confidence in governance (which
> had dropped to a very low level in the end of the Poroshenko's
> term). There was also a hope that he would mute the lynching-like
> activism of the domestic Nazi(-like) radicals. However, later it
> turned out that none of this came true.
>
> Few months after Zelensky had taken office, made first reshuffles,
> and conversations with the Atlanticist leaders, it became clear
> the conditions set by the Atlanticism in combination with the
> constraints from the domestic structures stuffed with people whom
> the Atlanticism bribed and / or nurtured before, will keep a firm
> cinch on the regime's principal policies regardless of what
> Zelensky promised or hinted while campaigning for president.
>
> So I believe he knows pretty well what is relly going on, but it
> would be wrong to see him as a figure in position to principally
> decide something.

He has to be told by the military and the entrenched establishment. I am not
sure he has independent channel of information.

> > Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
> > average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
> > each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.
> >
> > Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
> > do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?
> >
> >

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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From: anf...@wp.eu (A. Filip)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2022 18:11:38 +0000 (UTC)
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 by: A. Filip - Sun, 5 Jun 2022 18:11 UTC

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 3:40:36 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
>> "Oleg Smirnov" <os...@netc.eu> wrote:
>> > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
>> >> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
>> >> number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
>> >> thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
>> >
>> > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
>> > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
>> > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
>> > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
>> > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
>> >
>> > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
>> > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
>> > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
>> > […]
>>
>> Does Russians realize really realize the scale of real russian loses?
> Putin, AFAIK, has near total control over the Russian military apparatus. Can
> one say the same about Zelensky. And of course, Russia has a population
> 3+ times bigger than Ukraine. More important, the war was fought in Ukraine,
> not in Russia. And it is losing population over emigration.

It is more about Putin's loosing "comfortable support" by (majority of) Russians.
IMHO it is likely unless Ukraine over blows russian losses more than twice.

>> Does it create future political IED?
> Politically, political IED should be expected from the beginning. The issue
> is which country or countries do not mind to see Ukraine turned into a
> failed state.

It is likely but it is too early to be even 2/3 sure.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Whatever doesn't succeed in two months and a half in California
| will never succeed.
| (Rev. Henry Durant, founder of the University of California)

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: zifon...@gmail.com (borie)
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 by: borie - Mon, 6 Jun 2022 04:25 UTC

On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 7:42:06 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 6:21:52 AM UTC-4, stoney wrote:
> > On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 11:25:07 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > On Friday, June 3, 2022 at 11:16:01 PM UTC-4, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> > > > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> > > > > "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> > > > > Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> > > > > number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> > > > > thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> > > > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> > > > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> > > > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> > > > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> > > > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> > > >
> > > > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> > > > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> > > > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> > > > > "the orcs," as Russian troops are dubbed in Kiev's propaganda.
> > > > "Orc Horde" <https://tinyurl.com/26xlo4bs>
> > > You mentioned regular people. Another concern is whether Zelensky
> > > himself knows the scale of real losses. Is he still a celebrity? Or is he
> > > a real leader? He gave a speech over the internet every night. But did
> > > he has real understanding of the conflict? Or was he given a speech
> > > and he just acted out his presidential role every night?
> > >
> > > Even if one accepts Zelensky's figure of 60 to 100 each day, it is on the
> > > average 80 a day. Or 8000 dead over 100 days. 500 wounded or disabled
> > > each day which amounts to 50,000 over 100 days.
> > >
> > > Anyway, Sergei Poletaev raises a King Solomon's question. Which country
> > > do not mind to see Ukraine turning into a failed state?
>
> > Zelensky himself should know his losses. But leader normally will not tell their true figures. It will not be told even until years later. The losses will be for media and historians to guess and put a figure for it.
> The same goes to Russia's losses, too. Putin will not tell and forever the Duma and Russian people will not know it. What is at stake now is complete takeover of eastern Ukraine in 2 week's time. What is important to Putin is he knows that the war will end his favor and not Ukraine. Putin knows that US has failed to participate and challenge him. Hence the losses of dead to Putin is nothing and not important to Russia's goals.
> Zelensky was the people's choice. But it does not mean he is the military's
> choice. He is a total outsider to Ukraine's military establishment. How much has
> he entrenched himself and his people into the Ukrainian governing bureaucracy
> is still unknown to foreigners and to perhaps to most Ukrainians as well. In
> comparison, Trump is a lot more entrenched because of America's polarized
> politics and because the long election season.
>
> IMO, he is at present more a tool for the generals and admirals for weapon and
> other assistance. Over the Western media, he is stuck with his angry man image
> constantly complaining against US allies for not doing enough.

He needs not have to be a military choice of choosing him as a leader, but a leader who is able to draw in the audience through the internet to know what is going on, and what is needed seeking them to provide military equipment support to them. He has used the internet to advance his communication with the world and to solicit military support at the same time. In short, the team of people well-versed in the internet communication has been a success for him in comparison to Russia's lacks in that same field of internet reach and capability.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Mon, 6 Jun 2022 12:30 UTC

On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 2:11:41 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Sunday, June 5, 2022 at 3:40:36 AM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> >> "Oleg Smirnov" <os...@netc.eu> wrote:
> >> > ltlee1, <news:d49f5b33-ddf3-4062...@googlegroups.com>
> >> >
> >> >> "How many people is Ukraine prepared to lose?
> >> >> Politically, it appears, the answer is quite a lot. At this point, the total
> >> >> number of troops killed, injured or captured is estimated at tens of
> >> >> thousands, and the country's public opinion accepts these figures for now.
> >> >
> >> > Regular people in the Kiev-controlled territory do not really
> >> > realize the scale of real losses. Propaganda is unbridled and
> >> > massive. Their military do not report own losses and, on the
> >> > other hand, they report - along with the Atlanticist MSM - very
> >> > fantastic figures for Russian losses.
> >> >
> >> > Zelensky recently said they are losing about 100 dead soldiers
> >> > per day, but many analysts believe this figure is understated in
> >> > times, while realistic figure would be within 300-600 per day.
> >> > […]
> >>
> >> Does Russians realize really realize the scale of real russian loses?
> > Putin, AFAIK, has near total control over the Russian military apparatus. Can
> > one say the same about Zelensky. And of course, Russia has a population
> > 3+ times bigger than Ukraine. More important, the war was fought in Ukraine,
> > not in Russia. And it is losing population over emigration.
> It is more about Putin's loosing "comfortable support" by (majority of) Russians.
> IMHO it is likely unless Ukraine over blows russian losses more than twice.

What is your figure?
The following from Wikipedia per its users and editor:

"Russian force
(RAF, Rosgvardiya, FSB)
................................................................ Time Period...................................Source
1,351 killed, 3,825 wounded[note 6]..24 February – 25 March 2022 .......Russian government[77]
3,211+ killed......................... ........... 24 February – 31 May 2022 ....... Meduza & BBC News Russian[78]
3,160+ killed................................... .....24 February – 2 June 2022.......... IStories[79]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

> >> Does it create future political IED?
> > Politically, political IED should be expected from the beginning. The issue
> > is which country or countries do not mind to see Ukraine turned into a
> > failed state.

> It is likely but it is too early to be even 2/3 sure.

> --

What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Newsgroups: soc.culture.china,soc.culture.russian,soc.culture.ukrainian
Subject: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2022 18:35:29 +0300
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 by: Oleg Smirnov - Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:35 UTC

> Zelensky continues to play a celebrity, but this time mainly in
> front of the "international community" <https://bit.ly/3th9ifp>.
> And Zelensky before and after the election (that happened in the
> Kiev-controlled territory in spring of 2019) is somewhat like two
> different individuals. The voters preferred him to Poroshenko
> mainly because he definitely promised to end the Donbas-related
> hostilities and restore popular confidence in governance (which
> had dropped to a very low level in the end of the Poroshenko's
> term). There was also a hope that he would mute the lynching-like
> activism of the domestic Nazi(-like) radicals. However, later it
> turned out that none of this came true.
>
> Few months after Zelensky had taken office, made first reshuffles,
> and conversations with the Atlanticist leaders, it became clear
> the conditions set by the Atlanticism in combination with the
> constraints from the domestic structures stuffed with people whom
> the Atlanticism bribed and / or nurtured before, will keep a firm
> cinch on the regime's principal policies regardless of what
> Zelensky promised or hinted while campaigning for president.

Here's a NYT article <https://archive.is/5Epyp> (published about
six months after the election of Zelensky) that reveals some
traces of the undercarpet fuss and negotiation at the time. During
the election campaign, Zelensky seemed to be really intended to
solve the Donbas issue in a decent peaceful way and also normalize
the relationship with Russia. Kolomoisky (the interviewee) was at
the time within the Zelensky camp and voiced its "thoughts".

Subsequent developments showed that the Atlanticism managed to
coerce Zelensky to abandon his electoral agenda and continue the
confrontational line of his predecessor. Thus Zelensky betrayed
the expectations of the voters on the Kiev-controlled territory
who believed his electoral promises. This betrayal was soon
compensated by amplification of hateful anti-Russia / anti-Donbas
propaganda and gradual crackdown on the regime's internal critics.

The situation when elected leaders betray the expectations of
their voters and abandon electoral promises is more the rule than
the exception for the modern Western-style democracies. Because,
besides ordinary voters, there's always some more powerful forces
that may be national corporate clans with their business interest
or powerful foreign forces. The Zelensky case illustrates such a
state of affairs pretty well.

The case also can illustrate how massive and unbridledly hateful
propaganda in combination with suppression of all critical voices
can maintain a manageable level of stupidity within the populace.

The main argument the Atlanticist politicians and media employ to
justify the need to support the post-coup Kiev regime is "defense
of democracy", which sounds like an insult to intelligence if one
takes into account the above story. In the perverted Atlanticist
interpretation, 'democracy' primarily means a regime obedient to
the Atlanticist neo-imperial lust for global hegemony. Everything
else is pretty secondary.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: papajoe...@yahoo.com (stoney)
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 by: stoney - Thu, 28 Jul 2022 16:21 UTC

On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 11:37:34 PM UTC+8, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> > Zelensky continues to play a celebrity, but this time mainly in
> > front of the "international community" <https://bit.ly/3th9ifp>.
> > And Zelensky before and after the election (that happened in the
> > Kiev-controlled territory in spring of 2019) is somewhat like two
> > different individuals. The voters preferred him to Poroshenko
> > mainly because he definitely promised to end the Donbas-related
> > hostilities and restore popular confidence in governance (which
> > had dropped to a very low level in the end of the Poroshenko's
> > term). There was also a hope that he would mute the lynching-like
> > activism of the domestic Nazi(-like) radicals. However, later it
> > turned out that none of this came true.
> >
> > Few months after Zelensky had taken office, made first reshuffles,
> > and conversations with the Atlanticist leaders, it became clear
> > the conditions set by the Atlanticism in combination with the
> > constraints from the domestic structures stuffed with people whom
> > the Atlanticism bribed and / or nurtured before, will keep a firm
> > cinch on the regime's principal policies regardless of what
> > Zelensky promised or hinted while campaigning for president.
> Here's a NYT article <https://archive.is/5Epyp> (published about
> six months after the election of Zelensky) that reveals some
> traces of the undercarpet fuss and negotiation at the time. During
> the election campaign, Zelensky seemed to be really intended to
> solve the Donbas issue in a decent peaceful way and also normalize
> the relationship with Russia. Kolomoisky (the interviewee) was at
> the time within the Zelensky camp and voiced its "thoughts".
>
> Subsequent developments showed that the Atlanticism managed to
> coerce Zelensky to abandon his electoral agenda and continue the
> confrontational line of his predecessor. Thus Zelensky betrayed
> the expectations of the voters on the Kiev-controlled territory
> who believed his electoral promises. This betrayal was soon
> compensated by amplification of hateful anti-Russia / anti-Donbas
> propaganda and gradual crackdown on the regime's internal critics.
>
> The situation when elected leaders betray the expectations of
> their voters and abandon electoral promises is more the rule than
> the exception for the modern Western-style democracies. Because,
> besides ordinary voters, there's always some more powerful forces
> that may be national corporate clans with their business interest
> or powerful foreign forces. The Zelensky case illustrates such a
> state of affairs pretty well.
>
> The case also can illustrate how massive and unbridledly hateful
> propaganda in combination with suppression of all critical voices
> can maintain a manageable level of stupidity within the populace.
>
> The main argument the Atlanticist politicians and media employ to
> justify the need to support the post-coup Kiev regime is "defense
> of democracy", which sounds like an insult to intelligence if one
> takes into account the above story. In the perverted Atlanticist
> interpretation, 'democracy' primarily means a regime obedient to
> the Atlanticist neo-imperial lust for global hegemony. Everything
> else is pretty secondary.

The "defense of democracy" is used by US and it is an insult to a person's intelligence when it is meant to rule and dictate the under "rule of thumb", instead.

Just look at those nations under their "rules by their thumb" such a Japan, South Korea, 5 eyes countries and NATO countries. Never take what they say. Just ignore them; keep your distance, and give them cold shoulder, and they will leave.

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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From: anf...@wp.eu (A. Filip)
Newsgroups: soc.culture.china,soc.culture.russian,soc.culture.ukrainian
Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2022 19:01:31 +0200
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 by: A. Filip - Thu, 28 Jul 2022 17:01 UTC

1. Soviets were ready to tolerate even "Stalingrad loses".
Czechoslovakia surrendered to hitler with no fight.
2. Any stupid chief can _start_ a war.
3. The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
-- George Orwell

Putin have not stopped after annexation of Crimea.
Putin have not stopped after creation of two people republics.
Will Putin stop after current *open* military invasion? I doubt so.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| IN MY OPINION anyone interested in improving himself should not
| rule out becoming pure energy.
| (Jack Handey, The New Mexican, 1988.)

Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?

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Subject: Re: What Sort of Losses Can Ukraine Tolerate Before It's Forced to
Seek a Peace Deal With Russia?
From: ltl...@hotmail.com (ltlee1)
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 by: ltlee1 - Fri, 29 Jul 2022 17:07 UTC

On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-4, A. Filip wrote:
> 1. Soviets were ready to tolerate even "Stalingrad loses".
> Czechoslovakia surrendered to hitler with no fight.
> 2. Any stupid chief can _start_ a war.
> 3. The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
> -- George Orwell
>
> Putin have not stopped after annexation of Crimea.
> Putin have not stopped after creation of two people republics.
> Will Putin stop after current *open* military invasion? I doubt so.
> --
> A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> | IN MY OPINION anyone interested in improving himself should not
> | rule out becoming pure energy.
> | (Jack Handey, The New Mexican, 1988.)

Soviets tolerated Stalingrad loses certainly does not mean
Ukraine under Zelenskyy could tolerate comparable loses.
Similarly, US was helping the former Soviet during WWII and it
is helping Ukraine at present.

Difference, the quality of leadership. Is Zelenskyy a capable
and respected politicians trust by the people?
Popularity of Zelenskyy did surge shortly after the conflict.
But then no comparable poll results were published since March 1st in English or Chinese media.
Currently, his wife is more likely to be more popular.

Look back before the conflict, I found the following NPR report:
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/27/1076199817/where-president-zelenskys-popularity-stands-with-people-in-ukraine

"As we have been out and about here in the Ukrainian capital, we have met a lot of people who
have a lot of not particularly nice things to say about the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
We wanted to hear what the other side of things is. So that has led to our showing up at this ice
skating rink. I'm about to lace up skates, and we'll tell you why.
....
As we have been out and about here in the Ukrainian capital, we have met a lot of people who have
a lot of not particularly nice things to say about the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. We
wanted to hear what the other side of things is. So that has led to our showing up at this ice skating
rink. I'm about to lace up skates, and we'll tell you why.
....
And he rises to stardom in this show, and he's elected to president because, you know, everyone
sees this video. And so that's the TV show, and then it happens in real life. In 2019, a TV star rails
against corruption, runs for president, and he wins. He gets more than 70% of the vote. He beats the
incumbent. And his party - get this - is called Servant of the People. That's the name of his TV show -
so fictional president becomes real president.
....
Today, though, as of last week, a poll shows that 30% only support this president. And it's low, but,
you know, just like that skater you met today, people don't really see an alternative."

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