On Monday, April 18, 2022 at 2:58:17 PM UTC+8, David P. wrote:
> Is Shanghai’s Covid-19 Disaster China’s Future?
> By Nathaniel Taplin, April 13, 2022, WSJ
>
> After largely keeping out Covid-19 for two years, China’s
> largest city is battling an outbreak numbering over 100,000
> cases. And while the Shanghai government has yet to acknowledge
> any Covid fatalities, spiking deaths at some elderly care
> facilities suggest that the numbers are there, whether
> officially acknowledged or not.
>
> Is this a sign of things to come in the rest of China?
>
> Not necessarily, but if the government doesn’t move quickly
> to vaccinate and boost its elderly, and start spending much
> more heavily on hospital capacity, then the human and economic
> consequences could be disastrous.
>
> Events in Hong Kong and Shanghai have demonstrated that a
> “zero Covid” strategy can look very effective for a long time—
> until suddenly it isn’t, either because a more infectious variant
> changes the game or because success itself breeds overconfidence.
>
> To be sure, mainland China has tools that Hong Kong lacks. These
> include the network of neighborhood party committees that have
> formed the backbone of grass-roots monitoring and enforcement,
> the state’s greater coercive and surveillance capabilities writ
> large, and the ability to mobilize enormous manpower in a pinch
> to build hospital space, conduct testing, or deliver food. The
> political stakes on the mainland, where Communist Party General
> Secretary Xi Jinping is poised to bid for an unprecedented third
> term later this year, are also arguably even higher than in Hong Kong.
>
> Shanghai’s struggle to deliver food to residents and staff
> medical facilities shows that these advantages can crumble quickly,
> however, if Omicron’s exponential growth isn’t halted in its early
> stages. At the very least China will pay an enormous economic price
> to bring the current outbreak under control. Cities under complete
> lockdown or very harsh control measures as of early April accounted
> for about 13% of China’s economy, according to Gavekal Dragonomics.
> China’s target of “around 5.5%” growth for 2022—which looked ambitious
> before the recent outbreak—now looks implausible.
>
> More important, even assuming this outbreak is controlled, the
> idea that China can achieve a “soft exit” from “zero Covid” at
> some future date without large-scale fatalities is seeming
> increasingly questionable.
>
> China invested heavily in healthcare for the past several years—
> to the tune of 30% growth in 2020 and 25% last year, both far
> faster than overall fixed asset investment, which only grew in
> the single digits both years. But in some important respects,
> that rapid investment is coming from a very low base. China had
> only 4.4 intensive care beds per 100,000 residents in 2021,
> according to Morgan Stanley—compared with around 11 in South
> Korea and the U.K., and 26 in the U.S.
>
> Mainland China also has some of the same weaknesses that led to
> Hong Kong’s disastrous Omicron outbreak. As in Hong Kong, and for
> reasons that aren’t entirely clear, a large proportion of the
> elderly remain unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated—about
> half of the population over 80.
>
> In Hong Kong, where government health expenditures are slightly
> higher than China’s as a percentage of gross domestic product,
> hospitals were easily overwhelmed by large numbers of elderly
> patients once Omicron broke through. Hong Kong also has 7.1 ICU
> beds per 100,000 residents, according to a February article in
> the Hong Kong Medical Journal—significantly more on a per capita
> basis than China. General government expenditure on healthcare
> in China amounted to less than 3% of GDP in 2019, according to
> the World Bank, below the upper-middle-income average of 3.3%
> and well below the nearly 8% typical of developed countries.
>
> China has also declined to approve foreign mRNA-based Covid-19
> vaccines, such as those developed by Pfizer and Moderna that
> appear to offer superior protection against the virus compared
> with vaccines developed using older technologies—including China’s
> own. The rationale has apparently been to create room for Chinese
> businesses to develop their own mRNA vaccines, a venture that could
> eventually be successful. By buying time for China’s domestic
> vaccine entrepreneurs, however, Beijing may have squandered time
> to get its most vulnerable vaccinated with the best protection available.
>
> For now, China’s outbreak appears to have only reached truly
> dangerous levels in Shanghai and the northern province of Jilin.
> But the days of “zero Covid”—so successful at preventing deaths
> and economic damage early in the pandemic—are now clearly numbered.
> Omicron is too contagious and the economic cost of containing it is
> unsustainable. If the Chinese government doesn’t use its remaining
> time to aggressively vaccinate and boost its vulnerable with the
> best protection available, build up intensive-care capacity, and
> motivate the populace to protect itself by articulating a clear
> intention to eventually move toward living with the virus, many
> more situations like Shanghai and Hong Kong might become inevitable.
>
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-shanghais-covid-disaster-chinas-future-11649867483

China is still growing well in a steady state from 4.0% at the end of December 2021 to 4.8% for the first quarter of this year 2922. It is within the world's analysts' forecasts even though the lockdown is still underway in the particular city of Shanghai. The rest of the country's economy is still going about their activities and is pose to grow to 5.4 % in mid term of June.

China's method of containment of Omicron is doing well and is the best option for the big country on big cities with heavy population centres. People in China are fully aware of their needs to cooperate with their health authorities on containment of spreading of virus to other buildings and into other cities, too. If the spread goes beyond beyond their city, the spread of virus will be more serious than now. At this time, up to now, there was no death at all, despite the high number of infections found and infection is growing to 200,000.

If containment is not successful, US and its Western media will be ready to chide at China and make new laughter and mock at China. US is ready in trying to disrupt China from growing its economy and hence is delighted to see how Chinese people will react against to their authorities. Make no mistake, the Chinese people has a trust of 97% on their government to manage the infection control well to expectation.

With much orders still in production, delays of productions and deliveries will be expected for local and export markets, too. Most buyers around the world are fully aware of their expected delays but they are happy to see China is doing well in containment of infection as it is their correct priority to make their people safe first, like any country does that, too.

What China is doing now is to accelerate the vaccination of the populations to the fullest completion. Elderly populated centers need to be vaccinated to prevent elderly infections and potential deaths. Additional booster vaccination may also be needed to address any potential spread of Omicron.

At some point, new measures will be needed to relax some controls to allow batches of people in different blocks of buildings to go out to shop and relax. A control version in outdoor purchase and shopping and relaxing can relieve them from their tiresome life at home.

On Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 12:35:28 AM UTC+8, David P. wrote:
> stoney wrote:
> > David P. wrote:
> > > Is Shanghai’s Covid-19 Disaster China’s Future?
> > > By Nathaniel Taplin, April 13, 2022, WSJ
> > > [....]
> > > https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-shanghais-covid-disaster-chinas-future-11649867483
> > China is still growing well in a steady state from 4.0% at the end of December 2021 to 4.8% for the first quarter of this year 2922. It is within the world's analysts' forecasts even though the lockdown is still underway in the particular city of Shanghai. The rest of the country's economy is still going about their activities and is pose to grow to 5.4 % in mid term of June.
> >[....]
> ----------------
> There's nothing "Normal" about adding one billion every 12 years,
> like we've been doing since 1960! Nowhere else in Nature does a
> population increase indefinitely without a crash! Nature's plan is
> that every species has enemies that keep its numbers in check. Our plan
> is to suppress communicable diseases, and we're slowly discovering that
> this has significant costs. We should stop making flu, MMR, & Covid shots,
> to shorten the average life span by a few years, because we didn't
> listen to the scientists who called for Zero Population Growth 50 years ago!
> When you go too far out on a limb, you need to back up!
> --
> --

Up to today latest media news said only 3 deaths of mainly elderly. This death is very small and is the first case after more than one month of lockdown of Shanghai. This death case may be due to the existing medical condition of the medical health of the elderly patients but can also be contributed in part by the Omicron infected condition.

Henceforth, it goes to show that relaxation of lockdown can be possible and could be done soon if the Shanghai government has done the needed things to comply with the requisite public measures required by the central health authorities of China.

Such needed things such as contact tracing system could be introduced to locate any infected persons to return to its nearest testing center for swab testing purposes. This means tracing measures could be put in place to trace and respond to any infection of individual.

The health authorities in China can identify and differentiate different cities with infection allowances for infected patients, and not have to have zero infection rate in all of China's cities.

Some population in some outer cities in China with sparsely populated density can have broader per square mile of infection rate, and some have to have tighter rate, too.

Therefore, potential risk of infection rate can set to vary from day to day or week to week in order to meet the infection found for that city.

Should there be any infection discovered, the tracing system can inform to go for swab testing to confirm it. By this way, the people can move around and carry on their activities such as shopping, marketing, and going to work too. The contact tracing system installed at entrances of offices, shopping malls, and markets can trace them when required to do so.

In short, if Shanghai has a tracing system, the people can leave their homes and their mobile phone will be installed with their contact tracing system, in order to communicate through wifi by the health authorities at all times.