Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.

"The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
....
Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.

The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
....
A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.

The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
....
Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/

On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
>
> "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> ...
> Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
>
> The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> ...
> A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
>
> The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> ...
> Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
>
> https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/

The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.

"bmoore" wrote in message
news:4b2c8142-9342-49c4-939c-94dbe6bf50f1n@googlegroups.com...
>
> The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who
> is destroying Russia and Ukraine.

It'll be interesting to see how much he can get away
with before he gets the Lavrenti Beria treatment...

On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:11:12 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
>
> "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> ...
> Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
>
> The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> ...
> A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
>
> The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> ...
> Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
>
> https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/

Another possible ending: Ukraine will be dismembered until extinction, just like what the West did to ex-Yugoslavia.

On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:26:19 PM UTC, bmoore wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings..
> >
> > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > ...
> > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> >
> > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > ...
> > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> >
> > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > ...
> > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> >
> > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.

Unlikely and rationally thinking people may not like that outcome.

"Also not going to happen is some sort of regime change inside Russia. Putin has been in charge for 22 years and controls the media, the military, and the intelligence services. Those were the people who brought Putin to power in Russia’s last coup. There is no means to the end the West wishes for, and no clear evidence the people of Russia want such an outcome in the first place. After all, a million pink hats in Washington accomplished…very little. A few protests scattered across the vastness of Russia are exaggerated for a Western audience. And what could make life more interesting than one of the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons having no one firmly in charge?"

On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 9:47:13 AM UTC, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:11:12 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings..
> >
> > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > ...
> > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> >
> > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > ...
> > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> >
> > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > ...
> > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> >
> > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> Another possible ending: Ukraine will be dismembered until extinction, just like what the West did to ex-Yugoslavia.

Ukraine is not as divided as ex-Yugoslavia. Else Zelensky could not possibly win the number of votes in the first place. Given that Russia does need a buffer zone, A large region with a large population with insufficient internal coherence is bad news for Russia.

But the author of the article mainly tells the story from Russian point of view and action. American response, even a weak one, could certainly spoil Putin's plan. Will he resort to nuclear weapon?

"Consider the tinder in place, in addition to any simple false flag attacks Zelensky or other Ukrainian nationalists engineer out of desperation. CIA and U.S. Special Forces are likely on the ground already in Ukraine, parsing intel and advising. U.S. spy planes and drones are overhead. Imagine an incident where an American is taken prisoner by the Russians. Or maybe a border incident, real or imagined, with Poland to force NATO into the fight? Or a U.N. demand for some peacekeeping force to stop Putin’s war crimes. Maybe a “one-time surgical strike” for humanitarian reasons on a Russian column threatening another hospital?"

Zelensky is also a mystery. Looks like he has little understanding of Russia's concern. There is indication that he may want to drag out peace/cease fire negotiation. Bad for Putin but also bad for average Ukrainians.

On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:08:59 PM UTC, Byker wrote:
> "bmoore" wrote in message
> news:4b2c8142-9342-49c4...@googlegroups.com...
> >
> > The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who
> > is destroying Russia and Ukraine.
> It'll be interesting to see how much he can get away
> with before he gets the Lavrenti Beria treatment...

According to Peter Van Buren, Putin is likely to get away although Western response
would wreck Russia economically in the short term. But his action, so far, is on the right
side of RUSSIAN history.

bmoore <bmoore@nyx.net> wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
>> Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
>>
>> "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise
>> of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas
>> of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and
>> airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the
>> western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half
>> a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
[…]
>> https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
>
> The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin,
> who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.

*WHO* is the judge?

I am sure not everyone shares your opinion *especially* at s.c.china.
There is a lot of choices between (whole) support and condemnation
e.g. lukewarm "support".

P.S. Do you remember Russian Korea/Manchuria? [Russia-Japan War (1905)]

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from
| time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.
| (Oscar Wilde, "The Critic as Artist")

On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 4:37:14 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:26:19 PM UTC, bmoore wrote:
> > On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
> > >
> > > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > > ...
> > > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> > >
> > > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > > ...
> > > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> > >
> > > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > > ...
> > > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> > >
> > > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> > The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.
> Unlikely and rationally thinking people may not like that outcome.

If Putin continues, Ukraine and Russia will be destroyed. Thus, an alternative where Ukraine and/or Russia are not destroyed is preferable.

Rationally thinking people know that it is not important whether Putin is exiled or killed. He must go.

You seem not to understand simple logic. Perhaps your bias has made you blind?

> "Also not going to happen is some sort of regime change inside Russia. Putin has been in charge for 22 years and controls the media, the military, and the intelligence services. Those were the people who brought Putin to power in Russia’s last coup. There is no means to the end the West wishes for, and no clear evidence the people of Russia want such an outcome in the first place. After all, a million pink hats in Washington accomplished…very little. A few protests scattered across the vastness of Russia are exaggerated for a Western audience. And what could make life more interesting than one of the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons having no one firmly in charge?"

Putin does not control the single bullet which may end his life. He won't show it, but he is a scared little rabbit. If the Russian security forces see him as a failure in *any* way, it's bye bye Vladimir. That's the way it is in these countries. Let's hope the cooler heads in Russia will prevail and the world doesn't end. Putin is not the one anyone rational should want in charge. He is mentally ill.

On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 7:26:13 AM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
> bmoore <bmo...@nyx.net> wrote:
> > On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> >> Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
> >>
> >> "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise
> >> of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas
> >> of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and
> >> airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the
> >> western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half
> >> a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> […]
> >> https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> >
> > The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin,
> > who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.
> *WHO* is the judge?

God.
> I am sure not everyone shares your opinion *especially* at s.c.china.
> There is a lot of choices between (whole) support and condemnation
> e.g. lukewarm "support".

The supporters are the same people who would destroy democracy in Taiwan. Biased people.

> P.S. Do you remember Russian Korea/Manchuria? [Russia-Japan War (1905)]

I was very young at the time.

> --
> A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
> | Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from
> | time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.
> | (Oscar Wilde, "The Critic as Artist")

On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 2:11:12 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
>
> "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> ...
> Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
>
> The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> ...
> A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
>
> The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> ...
> Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
>
> https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/

Ending is part of the plans in the making of invasion objectives. Each stage is in the objective of the invasion plans. The objective is not tell now until the invasion is completed. When objective is completed, the next phase to takeover the country. New governing council installed and new management completed and closed. It will be registered as a republic state of Russia.

On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 7:29:28 AM UTC, borie wrote:
> On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 2:11:12 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings..
> >
> > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > ...
> > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> >
> > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > ...
> > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> >
> > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > ...
> > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> >
> > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> Ending is part of the plans in the making of invasion objectives. Each stage is in the objective of the invasion plans. The objective is not tell now until the invasion is completed. When objective is completed, the next phase to takeover the country. New governing council installed and new management completed and closed. It will be registered as a republic state of Russia.

Peter Van Buren considered occupying Ukraine a very bad choice for Putin.
"A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again. "

You disagree with his depiction. First of all, how many Russian soldiers are needed to occupy Ukraine to keep it a republic state of Russia?

On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:37:14 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:26:19 PM UTC, bmoore wrote:
> > On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
> > >
> > > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > > ...
> > > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> > >
> > > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > > ...
> > > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> > >
> > > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > > ...
> > > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> > >
> > > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> > The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.
> Unlikely and rationally thinking people may not like that outcome.
>
> "Also not going to happen is some sort of regime change inside Russia. Putin has been in charge for 22 years and controls the media, the military, and the intelligence services. Those were the people who brought Putin to power in Russia’s last coup. There is no means to the end the West wishes for, and no clear evidence the people of Russia want such an outcome in the first place. After all, a million pink hats in Washington accomplished…very little. A few protests scattered across the vastness of Russia are exaggerated for a Western audience. And what could make life more interesting than one of the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons having no one firmly in charge?"

It's a rational outcome. Either Ukraine ceases to exist or it will continue to fight Russia for the return of its occupied land. How does this current war happen? First, Russia took over Crimea and Lugansk and Donetsk. Then Ukraine wanted to take it back. Now that Russia has captured more of Ukraine's land, will it give them up? Not likely. Then Ukraine will have to get into a bigger fight with Russia. This will go on and on as long as there is a Ukraine.

On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 1:10:37 PM UTC, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:37:14 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 6:26:19 PM UTC, bmoore wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, March 15, 2022 at 11:11:12 AM UTC-7, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
> > > >
> > > > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > > > ...
> > > > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> > > >
> > > > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost..”
> > > > ...
> > > > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> > > >
> > > > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > > > ...
> > > > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> > > >
> > > > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> > > The best ending would be the overthrow of the brutal dictator Putin, who is destroying Russia and Ukraine.
> > Unlikely and rationally thinking people may not like that outcome.
> >
> > "Also not going to happen is some sort of regime change inside Russia. Putin has been in charge for 22 years and controls the media, the military, and the intelligence services. Those were the people who brought Putin to power in Russia’s last coup. There is no means to the end the West wishes for, and no clear evidence the people of Russia want such an outcome in the first place. After all, a million pink hats in Washington accomplished…very little. A few protests scattered across the vastness of Russia are exaggerated for a Western audience. And what could make life more interesting than one of the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons having no one firmly in charge?"
> It's a rational outcome. Either Ukraine ceases to exist or it will continue to fight Russia for the return of its occupied land. How does this current war happen? First, Russia took over Crimea and Lugansk and Donetsk. Then Ukraine wanted to take it back. Now that Russia has captured more of Ukraine's land, will it give them up? Not likely. Then Ukraine will have to get into a bigger fight with Russia. This will go on and on as long as there is a Ukraine.

Not necessarily so.
Ukraine is the result of an intra-national border turned into an international border. It is not inherently a nation of one people.
In the absence of external involvement, both sides would naturally survey the borders together and make a deal. It is still not too late for that. However, the process could take years if not longer.

BTW, this is also how the Ukraine situation is totally different from Taiwan.
Both PRC and ROC recognizes the fact they are of the same China. PRC and ROC constitutions have differences. Yet no difference regarding Taiwan and its outlying islands as well the islets in the SCS.

On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 7:39:25 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 7:29:28 AM UTC, borie wrote:
> > On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 2:11:12 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > Peter Van Buren, former US Foreign Service employee offers some endings.
> > >
> > > "The Best Case for Everyone is the Russians, perhaps under the guise of some humanitarian gesture, withdraw to the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and some strategic points, things like bridges and airports. Ukraine is essentially divided into two semi-states, the western half nominally under Ukrainian control and the eastern half a Russian zone with a new Iron Curtain in place.
> > > ...
> > > Putin made this strategy clear in his asks for a ceasefire: that Ukraine accept demilitarization, declare itself neutral, and drop its bid to join NATO. He does not really want the cities, and he does not want to occupy a hostile population. That is why he agreed to safe corridors westward for refugees and why he has held back sustained shelling and rocketing of Kiev, for now. Depopulation aids Putin in neutering eastern Ukraine and avoids later ethnic conflict between Ukrainian nationalists and the local Russian population.
> > >
> > > The Next Best Case is NATO makes a secret agreement to keep Ukraine out of the alliance in return for Putin withdrawing in whole or in part (see above). This is very tricky diplomacy, as it cannot appear NATO appeased Putin and it cannot seem in the eyes of the world that Putin “lost.”
> > > ...
> > > A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again.
> > >
> > > The idea may prove tempting to Putin. He can claim full victory, be done forever with the Ukrainian problem, leave NATO looking emasculated, strike fear into the other former satellites, and leave Joe Biden out of a job in his self-proclaimed role as leader of the free world.
> > > ...
> > > Anything can happen, but Putin “losing” in Ukraine seems among the most unlikely of scenarios."
> > >
> > > https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/
> > Ending is part of the plans in the making of invasion objectives. Each stage is in the objective of the invasion plans. The objective is not tell now until the invasion is completed. When objective is completed, the next phase to takeover the country. New governing council installed and new management completed and closed. It will be registered as a republic state of Russia.
> Peter Van Buren considered occupying Ukraine a very bad choice for Putin.
> "A Very Bad Case would be a decision by Putin to occupy or destroy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and roll his army right to the Polish border as if it were 1975 all over again. "
> You disagree with his depiction. First of all, how many Russian soldiers are needed to occupy Ukraine to keep it a republic state of Russia?

To go into a war, one has to factor in options of decisions to occupy or destroy that country. Scenario planning is considered some many months ago. The dynamic of scenario is constantly changed whenever there is changed in situational scenario. In any case, various changing outcomes have already been factored to the changing scenarios.

Russia does not need a lot of troops to occupy Ukraine; on 200,000, but they need a lot of drone to supervise and dethroned them.

"gerard jud" wrote in message
news:b283d8cc-3e5e-42df-bd6d-440f45736ba9n@googlegroups.com...
>
> Another possible ending: Ukraine will be dismembered until extinction,
> just like what the West did to ex-Yugoslavia.

More likely Putin will be dragged from his dacha and shot...

"A. Filip" wrote in message news:anfi+y48vb967zf-m3g3@wp.eu...
>
> P.S. Do you remember Russian Korea/Manchuria? [Russia-Japan War (1905)]

Anyone remember "Battleship Potemkin?":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCR44ihk6C8