Bill Chen
·
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Completed 22-year military cycleWed
Is Taiwan's defense concept suited for a Chinese invasion?
Yes, and getting more suitable by the day.

Let's present some numbers.

In the year 2000, the number of 18 year old males eligible for conscription was 210,000.

In 2020, the number fell to 130,000.

By 2030, the number will fall further to below 90,000.

Taiwan's orbat calls for a 215,000 strong standing military, consisting of full time volunteers and conscripts on 4 month long national service. It is currently less than 80 percent staffed.

Unless Taiwan revamps the conscription system to include females or go back to the 2-3 year conscription system for males, the island's standing military will shrink below 100,000 in the 2030s, 60 percent of current size. The replacement pool is too small to support anything bigger, especially if Taiwan transits to an all-volunteer military.

Taiwan's combat strength is eroding by the day, whereas the mainland's capabilities are growing. There will be stealth jets operating off flattops, long range stealth bombers and many other indigenous weapon systems coming online in the coming decades.

Now for a poser. What if the Chinese deploy a s-500 equivalent system (similar to thaad) in fujian? It will be able to shoot anything down within Taiwan's adiz. What will the Taiwanese airforce do?

It isn't hard to see the tide of history here.

On 5/2/2022 1:56 am, Rusty Wyse wrote:
> Bill Chen
> ·
> Follow
> Completed 22-year military cycleWed
> Is Taiwan's defense concept suited for a Chinese invasion?
> Yes, and getting more suitable by the day.
>
> Let's present some numbers.
>
> In the year 2000, the number of 18 year old males eligible for conscription was 210,000.
>
> In 2020, the number fell to 130,000.
>
> By 2030, the number will fall further to below 90,000.
>
> Taiwan's orbat calls for a 215,000 strong standing military, consisting of full time volunteers and conscripts on 4 month long national service. It is currently less than 80 percent staffed.
>
> Unless Taiwan revamps the conscription system to include females or go back to the 2-3 year conscription system for males, the island's standing military will shrink below 100,000 in the 2030s, 60 percent of current size. The replacement pool is too small to support anything bigger, especially if Taiwan transits to an all-volunteer military.
>
> Taiwan's combat strength is eroding by the day, whereas the mainland's capabilities are growing. There will be stealth jets operating off flattops, long range stealth bombers and many other indigenous weapon systems coming online in the coming decades.
>
> Now for a poser. What if the Chinese deploy a s-500 equivalent system (similar to thaad) in fujian? It will be able to shoot anything down within Taiwan's adiz. What will the Taiwanese airforce do?
>
> It isn't hard to see the tide of history here.

Taiwanese people can leave Taiwan immediately if they are unhappy to
return the Taiwan to China. Taiwan should be handed back to China as it
is the province, China. It does not matter whether China ruled them or
not. They should just return the property to China. Period.

Yale Guen Mar (Bright Equality Mule), you should try to see what you can do about your very own Taiwan problem.

Yale Guen Mar (Bright Equality Mule), Can you think of a way to make the PLA unleash DF-21D and DF-26 on Taiwan? That would be dandy, right Yale Guen Mar?

Resty Wyse (Yale Guen Mar), it has been one of your lasting pains that you got dumped by a Taiwanese girl in the 1970s.

Your pain got only worse when you were refused a visa when you tried to visit Taiwan.

Yale Guen Mar (masquerading in the newsgroup under phony fanciful names like Resty Wyse, Buddy Frank, and Rusty Wyseman), why are you still mad because a Taiwanese girl dumped you in the 1970s? Don't you know why you got dumped?

But she wasn't the last woman to dump you, Yale Guen Mar (Bright Equality Mule).

In 1972, Lillian Dili Han divorced you because your selfishness had become intolerable for Lillian, Valerie, and Kimberly.

Resty Wyse (Yale Guen Mar), you have been dumped by women all your life. Lillian Dili Han dumped you. The Taiwanese girl dumped you. May Fung dumped you. Even Yuhua Luo dumped you. But she paid a heavy price. She had to offer you $30,000 and a minivan before you agreed to get lost from her life.

One has to admire Carlton's dad's stoic stance through your crisis with Yuhua Luo. It was Carlton's dad who provided Yuhua Luo with the $30,000 and the minivan so that she could offer them to you in return for your pledge to get lost from her life.

>
On Friday, May 3, 2019 at 1:29:32 PM UTC-7, Resty Wyse wrote:
> Will US go to war with China to defend Taiwan? "The question is, will the US go to war with China for Taiwan, and consequently face catastrophic consequences? The answer is no. China’s power increasing by the day, Taiwan is ultimately better off reaching a political rapprochement with China instead of relying on the US being ready to defend it."
>

Judah's parents, and their families, don't want Yale Guen Mar (Resty Wyse) to ever visit Taiwan because they are afraid that his deviant behavior with pigs will blacken the family's honor.

They have managed to influence the American Institute in Taiwan to thwart Yale Guen Mar's attempt to visit Taiwan. Yale Guen Mar has been informally informed that he'll need a visa if he wants to visit Taiwan even for a very short period.

Yale Guen Mar has been made aware that his visa application will be turned down on a technicality.

Yale Guen Mar has been denied a visa to Taiwan several times. It is unlikely that he will get a visa without help.

I suggest that Yale Guen Mar should try to get in touch with his cousin Clarence Yale Mar through the good offices of his "message-relayer" cousin in Santa Clara. If she puts in a good word for Yale Guen Mar (we know how difficult it is to discover even an iota of goodness in Yale Guen Mar, but blood is thicker than water), Yale Guen Mar might yet be allowed to visit Taiwan.

Clarence Yale Mar is a respected industry leader working for a multinational hi-tech company - he works from Austin, TX but business takes him to Taiwan quite often. Cousin Clarence is well acquainted with the rich and the powerful in Taiwan.

Unfortunately, jealousy had led Yale Guen Mar (who posts under the fake name of Resty Wyse) to bait cousin Clarence quite often in the newsgroup. Resty has maligned his accomplished cousin Clarence to have nothing to show for himself other than his fat belly. It will be a hard sell for her (the message-relayer cousin in Santa Clara) to convince cousin Clarence to have anything to do with Yale Guen Mar.