Bill Chen
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Student of comparative historyUpdated Tue
What would it take to win a war against China?
For a start, figure out who the enemy is.

China is incredibly misunderstood and analyzed in the media. The foreigner's perception of China is a cartoon divorced from Chinese realities, even among supposed think tanks. Few China experts even speak the language, much less keep up with developments.

Next, determine what you are fighting for. In other words, why is war necessary? What is at stake here? What will victory achieve, but more importantly, what will victory cost?

Then we get to the how.

The problem today is, the Chinese will not allow others to screw with them at will and without consequence. That era ended in 1950 when the Chinese light infantry without heavy weapons, air or naval support managed to repel the Americans from the yalu to the 38th parallel.

The odds are stacked on the Chinese side today.

China began 2010 without an aircraft carrier. It had 2 in 2020.

By 2030, it will have 2 or more emals launched carrier battle groups equipped with naval stealth jets, drones and a sophisticated complement of surface and subsurface escorts.

By 2040, China will completely dominate the waters off China. The yuan will have a prominent role in Eurasian and African trade. It will comfortably be the biggest and most dynamic market powered by the world's largest economy and manufacturing base.