David Martinez
Mexico City chilango. Amateur historianDec 10
What will make Mexico a manufacturing giant rivaling China?
Mexico will never rival China because China has 11 people for every single Mexican.

It is more or less inevitable now that Mexico will become a manufacturing giant. A lot of people, certainly here in Quora but even US and Mexican businessmen, are still stuck in the “maquiladora” mentality. They don’t see that Mexico graduates 130K engineers per year (vs the US’ 60–70K). They don’t realize that more and more advanced manufacturing, and even design and engineering tasks end up being done in Mexico. And it is a more natural partner of the US than places around the globe for this type of work because it shares timezones with the US, allowing for a live interactivity you just can’t get if your engineering peer is around the planet and asleep while you’re awake, not to mention the China “distancing” the US may or may not feel they have to start doing.

This is the most current mix of exports from Mexico (and the services sector is even bigger). It is no longer dominated by basic materials like petroleum or even clothing (“maquila”), or even TV displays as it was 10 years ago. Now we have a great mix. Cars, computers, video displays, trucks. And the export amount is more than the rest of Latin America (including giant Brazil) - combined. It’s staggering growth.

When I start seeing advanced Chip fabs moving into Mexico, I’ll know it’s moving even further into the space of China. A lot of people tell me that’s impossible, but they said the same thing about car manufacturing and computers not that long ago.

But it won’t ever “rival China” because it is much, much smaller in geography, population and it doesn’t have the goal to be that. It is becoming an option. A great option for world manufacture, of a country more aligned to Western ideals, with high quality manufacturing and a good service sector.

But only China will be China. Always.