"A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports.

Those officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues, say China is becoming a harder target, more opaque, just as the demand for insights into Xi’s decision-making is soaring and tensions with the U.S. are heating up over issues from Taiwan to high technology.

That reality comes after officials in both the Trump and Biden administrations said they were surprised by Beijing’s rapid moves to consolidate control of Hong Kong, project military power across the South China Sea, limit probes into the origins of Covid-19, undercut Chinese companies going public in the U.S. and ramp up hacking against adversaries.
....
Even before Xi, China’s political system was highly secretive and organized using a “stove-piped” system where information flows up to top leaders but rarely is disseminated widely inside the system. Chinese academia, the media and civil society organizations are all closely controlled by the government, further compounding the challenge of reporting on the country.

Consumers of intelligence often fail to recognize the severity of these challenges, former U.S. officials explained, and may have unrealistic expectations for what conclusions can be drawn from any raw intelligence collected in the field.

Xi’s broad anti-corruption campaign, which has punished more than 1..5 million officials, has also led to greater scrutiny of Chinese officials’ income, making payments to potential sources far more problematic, two former officials said. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/china-under-xi-is-tough-target-for-cia-spies-hurting-biden-s-beijing-policy?srnd=premium

There are no layers and hence no influencers. Each idea and feedback report
went straight to the president through the chimney.

It is like the election of the new pope whereby the election is selected
from among the gathered cardinals.

It is based on the white or black smoke signals emitted from the chimney in
the house where the cardinals stayed for prayers until the elected is
selected.

A black smoke would signal inconclusive conclave vote and white smoke would
announce the good news of the election.

Henceforth, none of the cardinals knew who selected but nobody knows.

"ltlee1" wrote in message
news:3d844d57-8aab-418e-9f61-499b8ce1b913n@googlegroups.com...

"A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner
circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to
get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials
who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports.

Those officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues,
say China is becoming a harder target, more opaque, just as the demand for
insights into Xi’s decision-making is soaring and tensions with the U.S. are
heating up over issues from Taiwan to high technology.

That reality comes after officials in both the Trump and Biden
administrations said they were surprised by Beijing’s rapid moves to
consolidate control of Hong Kong, project military power across the South
China Sea, limit probes into the origins of Covid-19, undercut Chinese
companies going public in the U.S. and ramp up hacking against adversaries.
....
Even before Xi, China’s political system was highly secretive and organized
using a “stove-piped” system where information flows up to top leaders but
rarely is disseminated widely inside the system. Chinese academia, the media
and civil society organizations are all closely controlled by the
government, further compounding the challenge of reporting on the country.

Consumers of intelligence often fail to recognize the severity of these
challenges, former U.S. officials explained, and may have unrealistic
expectations for what conclusions can be drawn from any raw intelligence
collected in the field.

Xi’s broad anti-corruption campaign, which has punished more than 1.5
million officials, has also led to greater scrutiny of Chinese officials’
income, making payments to potential sources far more problematic, two
former officials said. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/china-under-xi-is-tough-target-for-cia-spies-hurting-biden-s-beijing-policy?srnd=premium

"Need to know" is universal.
Foreign policy, in contrast to domestic policy, naturally has a lot less top down
as well as bottom up communications. In the absence of political polarization
like the US and frequently undermining opposition's policies, Chinese government
can accurately gauge the sentiment of Chinese people without enlisting the help
of the media. At least not to the extent in the US. Less media involvement means
less leaks.

The drying up of information sources also reflects other trends.

1. China is getting more prosperous. Hence, people in general have less need to
cultivate foreigners as a mean to obtain better lives outside of China.

2. The US is obviously in decline. And the people have turned toward ethno- and
religious nationalism. Many are hostile to China and Chinese. Such development
reduces Chinese enthusiasm over the US.

3. Arresting and jailing Meng under false pretense send a warning to all Chinese
elites with family members in the US. Would the Chinese government help them
if they are known to speak to suspected US spies?

On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:43:43 PM UTC, zizibong wrote:
> There are no layers and hence no influencers. Each idea and feedback report
> went straight to the president through the chimney.
>
> It is like the election of the new pope whereby the election is selected
> from among the gathered cardinals.
>
> It is based on the white or black smoke signals emitted from the chimney in
> the house where the cardinals stayed for prayers until the elected is
> selected.
>
> A black smoke would signal inconclusive conclave vote and white smoke would
> announce the good news of the election.
>
> Henceforth, none of the cardinals knew who selected but nobody knows.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> "ltlee1" wrote in message
> news:3d844d57-8aab-418e...@googlegroups.com...
> "A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner
> circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to
> get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials
> who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports.
>
> Those officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues,
> say China is becoming a harder target, more opaque, just as the demand for
> insights into Xi’s decision-making is soaring and tensions with the U.S. are
> heating up over issues from Taiwan to high technology.
>
> That reality comes after officials in both the Trump and Biden
> administrations said they were surprised by Beijing’s rapid moves to
> consolidate control of Hong Kong, project military power across the South
> China Sea, limit probes into the origins of Covid-19, undercut Chinese
> companies going public in the U.S. and ramp up hacking against adversaries.
> ...
> Even before Xi, China’s political system was highly secretive and organized
> using a “stove-piped” system where information flows up to top leaders but
> rarely is disseminated widely inside the system. Chinese academia, the media
> and civil society organizations are all closely controlled by the
> government, further compounding the challenge of reporting on the country..
>
> Consumers of intelligence often fail to recognize the severity of these
> challenges, former U.S. officials explained, and may have unrealistic
> expectations for what conclusions can be drawn from any raw intelligence
> collected in the field.
>
> Xi’s broad anti-corruption campaign, which has punished more than 1.5
> million officials, has also led to greater scrutiny of Chinese officials’
> income, making payments to potential sources far more problematic, two
> former officials said. "
>
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-10/china-under-xi-is-tough-target-for-cia-spies-hurting-biden-s-beijing-policy?srnd=premium