Hello,

More of my philosophy about the future of artificial intelligence and more..

I am a white arab from Morocco, and i think i am smart since i have also
invented many scalable algorithms and algorithms..

I will ask a philosophical question of:

Can we forecast the future of artificial intelligence ?

I think i am smart, and i am quickly noticing that connectionism in
artificial intelligence like with deep learning is not working because
it is not able to make emerge common sense reasoning, so i invite you to
read the following article from ScienceDaily so that to notice it, since
it is speaking about the connectionist models(like the ones of deep
learning or the transformers that are a kind of deep learning) in
artificial intelligence:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201118141702.htm

Other than that the new following artificial intelligence connectionist
models like from Microsoft and NVIDIA that are better than GPT-3
has the same weakness , since i think that they can not make emerge
common sense reasoning, here they are:

"Microsoft and Nvidia today announced that they trained what they claim
is the largest and most capable AI-powered language model to date:
Megatron-Turing Natural Language Generation (MT-NLP). The successor to
the companies’ Turing NLG 17B and Megatron-LM models, MT-NLP contains
530 billion parameters and achieves “unmatched” accuracy in a broad set
of natural language tasks, Microsoft and Nvidia say — including reading
comprehension, commonsense reasoning, and natural language inferences."

Read more here:

https://venturebeat.com/2021/10/11/microsoft-and-nvidia-team-up-to-train-one-of-the-worlds-largest-language-models/

Because i also said the following:

I think i am quickly understanding the defects of Megatron-Turing
Natural Language Generation (MT-NLP) that is better than GPT-3, and it
is that "self-attention" of the transformers in NLP, even if they scale
to very long sequences, they have a limited expressiveness, as they
cannot process input sequentially they can not model hierarchical
structures and recursion, and hierarchical structure is widely thought
to be essential to modeling natural language, in particular its syntax,
so i think that Microsoft Megatron-Turing Natural Language Generation
(MT-NLP) and GPT-3 too will be practically applied to limited areas, but
they can not make emerge common sense reasoning or the like that are
necessary for general artificial intelligence.

Read the following paper so that to understand the mathematical proof of it:

https://aclanthology.org/2020.tacl-1.11.pdf

So i think that the model that will have much more success to or can
make emerge common sense reasoning is like the following hybrid model in
artificial intelligence of connectionism + symbolism that we call COMET,
read about it here:

Common Sense Comes Closer to Computers

https://www.quantamagazine.org/common-sense-comes-to-computers-20200430/

And here is what i also said about COMET:

I have just read the following article about neuroevolution
that is a meta-algorithm in artificial intelligence, an algorithm for
designing algorithms, i invite you to read about it here:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/computers-evolve-a-new-path-toward-human-intelligence-20191106/

So notice that it says the following

"In neuroevolution, you start by assigning random values to the weights
between layers. This randomness means the network won’t be very good at
its job. But from this sorry state, you then create a set of random
mutations — offspring neural networks with slightly different weights —
and evaluate their abilities. You keep the best ones, produce more
offspring, and repeat."

So i think that the problem with neuroevolution above is that the
"evaluate the abilities of the offspring neural networks" lacks common
sense.

So read the following interesting article that says that artificial
intelligence has also brought a kind of common sense to Computers, and
read about it here:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.05317

And read about it in the following article:

"Now, Choi and her collaborators have united these approaches. COMET
(short for “commonsense transformers”) extends GOFAI-style symbolic
reasoning with the latest advances in neural language modeling — a kind
of deep learning that aims to imbue computers with a statistical
“understanding” of written language. COMET works by reimagining
common-sense reasoning as a process of generating plausible (if
imperfect) responses to novel input, rather than making airtight
deductions by consulting a vast encyclopedia-like database."

Read more here:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/common-sense-comes-to-computers-20200430/

So as you are noticing that the model that will cause problems by
bringing advanced automation that will cause too many jobs losses is
the hybrid connectionist + symbolic artificial intelligence model,
so we have to think about giving a Universal Basic Income (UBI) so
that to solve this problem, so you can look at the following video about
this problem of advanced automation with artifical intelligence:

Universal Basic Income (UBI) - Life After Automation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQjrhIyaPyg

More of my philosophy about automation and globalization and Donald
Trump and more..

I have just explained, read below, that Donald Trump protectionism
is not good, but i think that from year 2000 around 85% of jobs losses
in the manufacturing sector in USA was caused by automation and not by
China or such as were thinking it the people who elected Donald Trump,
and you can look at the following video that talks about it and that
makes you understand that automation also has advantages:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-rd3kW7Bc8

Following are some of the advantages of automation:

1. Automation is the key to the shorter workweek. Automation will allow
the average number of working hours per week to continue to decline,
thereby allowing greater leisure hours and a higher quality life.

2. Automation brings safer working conditions for the worker. Since
there is less direct physical participation by the worker in the
production process, there is less chance of personal injury to the worker.

3. Automated production results in lower prices and better products. It
has been estimated that the cost to machine one unit of product by
conventional general-purpose machine tools requiring human operators may
be 100 times the cost of manufacturing the same unit using automated
mass-production techniques. The electronics industry offers many
examples of improvements in manufacturing technology that have
significantly reduced costs while increasing product value (e.g., colour
TV sets, stereo equipment, calculators, and computers).

4. The growth of the automation industry will itself provide employment
opportunities. This has been especially true in the computer industry,
as the companies in this industry have grown (IBM, Digital Equipment
Corp., Honeywell, etc.), new jobs have been created.
These new jobs include not only workers directly employed by these
companies, but also computer programmers, systems engineers, and other
needed to use and operate the computers.

5. Automation is the only means of increasing standard of living. Only
through productivity increases brought about by new automated methods of
production, it is possible to advance standard of living. Granting wage
increases without a commensurate increase in productivity
will results in inflation. To afford a better society, it is a must to
increase productivity.

And i invite you to read my following thoughts about protectionism
and capitalism etc.

More of my philosophy about Trade Adjustment Assistance and globalization..

I think that protectionism is not good, and i think that Trade
Adjustment Assistance etc. is a better way of solving problems, so
i invite you to read the following article to know more:

https://theconversation.com/international-trade-has-cost-americans-millions-of-jobs-investing-in-communities-might-offset-those-losses-143406

And read more here about Trade Adjustment Assistance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_Adjustment_Assistance

More philosophy about protectionism and USA and more..

I think we have to be careful about protectionism, since read the following:

"Protectionist policies impose an additional cost and loss on all
parties. First of all, domestic consumers must pay a higher price for
goods. At the same time, importers face a decline in demand, so
international jobs are lost. For instance, the US-China trade war meant
that US consumers paid a higher price whilst demand for Chinese workers
is reduced.

So the Chinese unemployment increases and US consumers pay more.
However, the counter-argument is that it saves US jobs and businesses.
Now there is some validity to that claim. If the money sent to China
doesn’t come back in either demand for US goods, or FDI, then the
argument can be validated.

However, the reality of the situation is that when a US consumer buys
cheaper Chinese goods, that money goes to a Chinese exporter. That money
doesn’t stay with them indefinitely. It makes its way back to the US
through either demand for its goods or in FDI.