3 reasons China in the 2020s could start slowing dramatically like Japan in the 1990s

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-reasons-china-in-the-2020s-could-start-slowing-dramatically-like-japan-in-the-1990s/ar-AAPAVVK?ocid=msedgntp

Rusty Wyse <rst888wxyz@gmail.com> wrote:
> 3 reasons China in the 2020s could start slowing dramatically like Japan in the 1990s
>
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-reasons-china-in-the-2020s-could-start-slowing-dramatically-like-japan-in-the-1990s/ar-AAPAVVK?ocid=msedgntp

Keyword: *could*

My personal fully subjective guess/bet: No *dramatic* slowdown before
reaching half of US GDP *per capita* (per citizen).

--
A. Filip : Big Tech Brother is watching you.
| Darling: the popular form of address used in speaking to a member
| of the opposite sex whose name you cannot at the moment remember.
| (Oliver Herford)

On Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 11:10:54 AM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
> Rusty Wyse <rst88...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > 3 reasons China in the 2020s could start slowing dramatically like Japan in the 1990s
> >
> > https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-reasons-china-in-the-2020s-could-start-slowing-dramatically-like-japan-in-the-1990s/ar-AAPAVVK?ocid=msedgntp
> Keyword: *could*
>
> My personal fully subjective guess/bet: No *dramatic* slowdown before
> reaching half of US GDP *per capita* (per citizen).

I agree with you. "Hungry" people will stay hungry all the time. They will continue to work hard and produce...

>
> --
> A. Filip : Big Tech Brother is watching you.
> | Darling: the popular form of address used in speaking to a member
> | of the opposite sex whose name you cannot at the moment remember.
> | (Oliver Herford)

On Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 1:10:54 PM UTC-5, A. Filip wrote:
> Rusty Wyse <rst88...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > 3 reasons China in the 2020s could start slowing dramatically like Japan in the 1990s
> >
> > https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-reasons-china-in-the-2020s-could-start-slowing-dramatically-like-japan-in-the-1990s/ar-AAPAVVK?ocid=msedgntp
> Keyword: *could*
>
> My personal fully subjective guess/bet: No *dramatic* slowdown before
> reaching half of US GDP *per capita* (per citizen).

Too many "may" and "could" in American media regarding China.
While the probability of China starting dramatic slow is not zero, I would say
the probability is quite low.

First and foremost, China is not Japan. Japanese economy bulked up rapidly
as the results of Vietnam War during which the US used Japan as its staging
area. US sourced it war related things through Japan. Japanese economy
slowed down a lot following the end of the Vietnam War.

Secondly, the US forced Japan to increase its exchange rate quite dramatically.
From 250 yen per dollar (1985 high) to 90 yen per dollar (1995) low.

Thirdly, Japanese's industrial base was simply too narrow to support a large
GDP.

China is indeed greying rapidly. But it is also upgrading its manufacturing such the
age of the labor force is much less a limiting factor in comparing with its rate of
automation.

In contrast, the US has a much greater risk of dramatic slow down. 3 reasons among
other factors:
1. American 'democracy' is still not a position to stand up to big multi-nationals
as long as politicians still need campaign financing from companies the government
is supposed to regulate. The US political system is functionally speaking Inverted
Totalitarianism per late Princeton Univ prof. Sheldon Wolin.
(Professor of Politics, Emeritus, at Princeton University, where he taught from 1973 to 1987.)

https://www.kettering.org/wp-content/uploads/Wolin-Inverted-Totalitarianism-KREVIEW-2010.pdf

2. The dollar would need to devalue quit a lot to enable US manufacturing to be competitive.
A 25%
devaluation would of course reduce of the size of its economy by 25% based on exchange
rate.
3. America is short of both STEM workers and low paying labors. But ethno-religious nationalism
would hamper immigration of both.

>
> --
> A. Filip : Big Tech Brother is watching you.
> | Darling: the popular form of address used in speaking to a member
> | of the opposite sex whose name you cannot at the moment remember.
> | (Oliver Herford)