Gas prices skyrocket as the global energy crisis worsens
By Matt Egan, CNN Business, Oct 11, 2021

New York (CNN Business) The cost of energy was dirt cheap
in the spring of 2020 as roads and airports sat nearly
empty during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Energy demand is back today as the world economy reopens
-- but supply simply hasn't kept up. That's why US oil
prices have skyrocketed $120 since crashing to negative
$40 a barrel in April 2020. US oil prices finished above
$80 a barrel on Monday for the 1st time in nearly 7 years.

Crude gained 1.5% to end the day at $80.52. The last time
oil closed above $80 was Oct 31, 2014.

All of this is leading to sticker shock for many Americans
filling up at the pump -- at a time of the year when gas
prices typically cool off. The national average price for
gasoline hit a fresh 7-year high of $3.27/gal on Monday,
up by 7 cents in the past week alone, according to AAA.
Gas has nearly doubled since bottoming at $1.77 in Apr'20.

High gas prices will only exacerbate elevated inflation,
squeeze the budgets of American families & hurt Biden's
political fortunes. Unfortunately, prices at the pump
may get lifted even higher by the global energy crisis.

Natural gas prices have skyrocketed so much, esp. in Europe
& Asia, that power plants & factories may increasingly
turn to a relatively cheaper fuel source for electricity:
crude oil.

"It's a case of just trying to keep the lights on," said
Matt Smith, Kpler's lead oil analyst for the Americas.
"This is essentially creating demand that typically
isn't there,"

$100 oil in the cards?
====================
Citigroup on Monday ramped up its Brent oil forecast to
$85 a barrel for the 4th quarter & said crude will likely
hit $90 at times. The Wall Street bank cited "price
contagion this winter" and the expected switching of
power plants away from sky-high natural gas to oil.

Citi added that a "very cold winter" could see Europe
"running out of gas" by February.

Oil has long been there as a potential substitute for
natural gas -- except until recently, it didn't make any
financial sense. That's because for much of the past dozen
years, natural gas prices have been very low, making
switching to oil uneconomical.

But in Europe, natural gas prices have gone from below
$2 per million BTU last year to as much as $55 this fall.
That is the equivalent of $320 a barrel oil.

Bank of America has warned that a cold winter could boost
oil demand by half a million barrels per day, lifting
Brent crude to $100 a barrel. That in turn would cause
more sticker shock for American drivers because gas prices
are priced off Brent crude.

"We may just be one storm away from the next macro
hurricane," Bank of America strategists wrote in a
recent note to clients.

Record coal prices in China
=========================
It's not just high natural gas prices that are playing a
role here. Chinese coal prices have hit record highs amid
flooding in northern China that forced the closure of
dozens of coal mines. Coal remains the main source of
energy in China, used for heating, power generation and
steelmaking. China is now grappling with power shortages,
prompting the government to ration electricity during peak
hours and some countries to suspend production.

Against this backdrop, gasoline prices have crept higher &
higher in the United States -- adding to inflationary
pressures gripping the economy.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy,
said $3.30 gas prices nationally are likely around the corner.

"Looking out on the horizon, I really don't see an organized
drop in prices," said De Haan. "The market is starting to
feel explosive. The fundamentals are there for that to
continue."

OPEC in the driver's seat
======================
While demand is strong, oil supplies have simply not kept
pace. US oil production has been slow to rebound from Covid
-- even as prices have surged. Many US oil companies are
leery of once again oversupplying the market & they're far
more focused on returning cash to shareholders who have
lost gobs of money over the past decade.

Despite the White House's calls for OPEC & its allies to
significantly ramp up production, the group has only
gradually increased output sidelined in early 2020. For
now, they seem content to let oil prices remain elevated.

"They have always been the swing producer," said Kpler's
Smith, "but my gosh they certainly hold the power right now."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/business/gas-prices-oil-opec/index.html