"America today is a house divided. The tensions tearing it apart have not been tamed by Mr Trump’s defeat and Mr Biden’s ascendance to the White House. There is even some talk of a civil war as a looming threat.
....
The United States is approaching another reinvention moment, one that requires much more than a bumper sticker that says “build back better” and a huge infrastructure package. And crucially, America is no longer just competing against itself as it did after the end of the cold war. For the first time in over 100 years the country faces the certainty of losing its position as the world’s top economy and potentially its technological primacy as well. Should that happen, the consequences for America’s global standing would be enormous.
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Hence in foreign policy—from Mr Obama’s pivot to Asia and Mr Trump’s declaring Beijing an adversary to Mr Biden’s preoccupation with major-power rivalry—the country has been sharply focused on China. Having passed from a happy offensive in the name of globalisation to an active defence in the name of protecting its number-one status, America will respond vigorously to the challenge that China presents.

This confrontation will be the most consequential geopolitical, geo-economic, technological and ideological power struggle for decades to come.
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It would be foolhardy to speculate on the likely outcome of the Sino-American rivalry. One might suggest only that, in the end, the United States will not defeat China. By the same token, China, even if it surpasses America in certain categories, will not replace it as the world’s new hegemon: China has no pretensions to universalism.

The world order that is emerging in the 21st century is likely to be multi-layered or multi-dimensional. China and America will probably stay as the only two superpowers, but each will not command their part of the world in the way that leaders in Washington and Moscow did in the second half of the last century. Instead, different sets of players—including occasionally non-state actors—will wield influence in various functional areas and geographic regions.

A new chilly war
With the unipolar moment now history, Russia’s objective is to remain a world-class, self-standing player. This is the current definition of the historical term “great power” widely used in Russia today. For the country’s leaders, Russia is nothing if not a great power—just as, for many in Washington, America’s identity is inextricably wedded to global superiority.

For Russia, securing and holding on to that status, however, will be challenging. Geopolitical issues include above all maintaining an equilibrium—though hardly equidistance—in the face of America-China confrontation. Being sucked into that fight could be as detrimental, or worse, for Russia than was its fateful entry into the first world war.

A companion challenge for Russia is to stand on its own vis-à-vis its partners in China and thus keep the relationship on an even keel. In relations with the United States, leaders in Moscow and Washington need to manage the rapport carefully. That means making sure that conflicts in which Russia and America are directly or indirectly involved (such as Ukraine) do not spiral out of control; that a series of incidents between their armed forces (say, in Syria) do not inadvertently lead to actual shooting; and that a major cyberattack does not provoke a military response.

The confrontation with the United States notwithstanding, Russia’s principal challenges will be domestic. In the political realm, the looming hurdle will be managing the transition to a new regime that follows the current leader, Vladimir Putin, while avoiding the Scylla of instability and the Charybdis of deepening stagnation. In the realm of economics, unchaining the country’s potential—held back by monopolies and corruption from unaccountable, self-serving elites—is critical.

There are other hurdles. Mastering technological innovation and energy transition is an urgent task. Climate change affects Russia’s vast territory even more than it does the world generally. Russia’s demographics, despite the government’s efforts, remain uncheerful, with low birth rates and male life-expectancy lower than elsewhere in Europe. And immigration as a remedy has an underside, with many newcomers from rural regions in central Asia less willing to assimilate and in some cases falling for jihadist propaganda.

Lastly, to move ahead confidently, Russia would need to rediscover its values, such as working together for the good of the community, patriotism not tied to the current authorities and trust in one’s fellow citizens—and putting them into practice, rejecting the prevailing cynicism that undermines trust."

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/10/01/dmitri-trenin-on-russias-interests-in-the-new-global-order