China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times

China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
— but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.

While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
infections policy, under which the identification of even
one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
national travel restrictions

China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
the same manner.

For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
quarantine.

Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic

transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.

The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.

There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
to a site for Covid testing.

There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
growth in China. Newly released data from the National
Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
turing activity into contractionary territory for the
first time since Feb 2020.

Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.

One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
after reaching 80% vaccination.

But sticking with the current approach would transform
China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
less effective at protecting against new variants of the
virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
as the country opens up.

China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
last another two years or more.

Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
“living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
interest, both in the short and long term.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html

On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 3:53:08 AM UTC-4, David P. wrote:
> China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
>
> China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
> designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
> fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
> — but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
> strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
> as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
> the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
> If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.
>
> While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
> China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
> under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
> infections policy, under which the identification of even
> one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
> order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
> cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
> national travel restrictions
>
> China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
> approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
> New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
> would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
> unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
> than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
> cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
> policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
> any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
> the same manner.
>
> For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
> sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
> could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
> the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
> for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
> movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
> quarantine.
>
> Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
> Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
> quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
> outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
> the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
> govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic
>
> transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
> mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
> classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
> outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
> prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
> at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.
>
> The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
> to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
> diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.
>
> There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
> productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
> to a site for Covid testing.
>
> There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
> Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
> disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
> growth in China. Newly released data from the National
> Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
> during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
> to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
> turing activity into contractionary territory for the
> first time since Feb 2020.
>
> Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
> zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
> kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
> for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
> experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
> Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
> should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.
>
> One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
> been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
> vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
> Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
> achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
> But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
> efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
> reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
> vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
> to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
> most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
> that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
> the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
> after reaching 80% vaccination.
>
> But sticking with the current approach would transform
> China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
> there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
> less effective at protecting against new variants of the
> virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
> as the country opens up.
>
> China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
> And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
> unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
> rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
> last another two years or more.
>
> Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
> “living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
> turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
> backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
> most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
> strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
> would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
> on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
> vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
> interest, both in the short and long term.
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html

Don't quite understand this kind of "may be this", "may be that" article on China.
Of course, China will have to live with Covid one day.
We all will die one day. But don't we all try to delay that day as long as possible?

The same for living with the Covid virus. It less people sicken and killed by Covid not
better than more. More important, living with Covid the American way is also providing
the virus with millions of human bodies for GAIN OF FUNCTION experiments.

Of course, there will be a cost associating with zero tolerance. But then the question
is who are in the position to judge the cost-benefit of delay? Chinese government as
supported by the Chinese people or authors who write for American media?

A further question is what will this kind of article achieve. It is highly unlikely that it
would change Chinese government policy. American "Holier-than=thou"?

BTW, I did not read the article. I consider such article a waste of readers' time. If
anyone thinks I should and could learn something from the publication. Please
inform.

On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 12:53:08 AM UTC-7, David P. wrote:
> China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
>
> China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
> designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
> fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
> — but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
> strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
> as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
> the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
> If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.
>
> While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
> China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
> under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
> infections policy, under which the identification of even
> one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
> order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
> cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
> national travel restrictions
>
> China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
> approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
> New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
> would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
> unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
> than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
> cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
> policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
> any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
> the same manner.
>
> For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
> sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
> could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
> the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
> for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
> movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
> quarantine.
>
> Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
> Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
> quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
> outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
> the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
> govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic
>
> transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
> mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
> classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
> outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
> prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
> at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.
>
> The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
> to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
> diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.
>
> There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
> productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
> to a site for Covid testing.
>
> There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
> Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
> disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
> growth in China. Newly released data from the National
> Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
> during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
> to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
> turing activity into contractionary territory for the
> first time since Feb 2020.
>
> Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
> zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
> kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
> for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
> experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
> Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
> should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.
>
> One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
> been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
> vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
> Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
> achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
> But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
> efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
> reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
> vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
> to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
> most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
> that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
> the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
> after reaching 80% vaccination.
>
> But sticking with the current approach would transform
> China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
> there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
> less effective at protecting against new variants of the
> virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
> as the country opens up.
>
> China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
> And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
> unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
> rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
> last another two years or more.
>
> Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
> “living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
> turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
> backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
> most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
> strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
> would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
> on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
> vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
> interest, both in the short and long term.
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html

A government's preoccupation with appearance is bound to lead to problems like this.

ltlee1 wrote:
> David P. wrote:
> > China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> > By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
> > [ . . . ].
> > ---------------
> Don't quite understand this kind of "may be this", "may be that" article on China.
> Of course, China will have to live with Covid one day.
> We all will die one day. But don't we all try to delay that day as long as possible?
>
> The same for living with the Covid virus. It less people sicken and killed by Covid not
> better than more. More important, living with Covid the American way is also providing
> the virus with millions of human bodies for GAIN OF FUNCTION experiments.
>
> Of course, there will be a cost associating with zero tolerance. But then the question
> is who are in the position to judge the cost-benefit of delay? Chinese government as
> supported by the Chinese people or authors who write for American media?
---------
Why did the scientists call for Zero Population Growth
50 years ago? For Kicks? No, they were looking at our
ecological footprint & extrapolating into the future, & nobody
else was! Nothing was debunked; it was ignored!

Birth control will never be enough. Gotta have
Death control, too. Stop making flu, MMR, & Covid
shots, to shorten the avg life span by a few years.
Negative Population Growth, because we didn't listen
to the scientists 50 years ago calling for ZPG.
Nowhere else in Nature does a population keep
increasing indefinitely without a crash! The Laws
of Nature supersede & overrule the Human Laws!
--
--

On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 7:53:08 AM UTC, David P. wrote:
> China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
>
> China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
> designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
> fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
> — but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
> strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
> as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
> the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
> If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.
>
> While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
> China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
> under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
> infections policy, under which the identification of even
> one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
> order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
> cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
> national travel restrictions
>
> China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
> approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
> New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
> would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
> unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
> than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
> cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
> policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
> any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
> the same manner.
>
> For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
> sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
> could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
> the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
> for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
> movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
> quarantine.
>
> Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
> Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
> quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
> outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
> the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
> govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic
>
> transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
> mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
> classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
> outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
> prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
> at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.
>
> The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
> to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
> diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.
>
> There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
> productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
> to a site for Covid testing.
>
> There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
> Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
> disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
> growth in China. Newly released data from the National
> Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
> during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
> to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
> turing activity into contractionary territory for the
> first time since Feb 2020.
>
> Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
> zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
> kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
> for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
> experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
> Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
> should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.
>
> One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
> been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
> vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
> Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
> achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
> But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
> efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
> reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
> vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
> to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
> most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
> that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
> the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
> after reaching 80% vaccination.
>
> But sticking with the current approach would transform
> China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
> there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
> less effective at protecting against new variants of the
> virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
> as the country opens up.
>
> China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
> And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
> unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
> rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
> last another two years or more.
>
> Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
> “living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
> turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
> backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
> most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
> strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
> would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
> on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
> vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
> interest, both in the short and long term.
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html

Latest:
In the Chinese city of Putian, Fujian Province, because of one Chinese returning from Singapore with the Delta variant, almost 200 people have so far been infected.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3148772/covid-19-cases-still-rising-chinas-delta-variant-outbreak

In the end, it may be several times more over more places in China.
"30,000 people from Putian had already left the city before the outbreak emerged"

That's from just because of one person. You still think zero-infection tolerance is not the right way to go?

In the US, for the past week, average daily new infections is about 150K. Hospital resources are wearing thin again.

There is no other way but zero-infection tolerance as new variants become more infectious, contagious and virulent.

There should also be zero-freedom tolerance. Human freedom is aiding the virus to spread freely.

On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:12:13 AM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 7:53:08 AM UTC, David P. wrote:
> > China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> > By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
> >
> > China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
> > designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
> > fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
> > — but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
> > strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
> > as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
> > the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
> > If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.
> >
> > While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
> > China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
> > under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
> > infections policy, under which the identification of even
> > one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
> > order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
> > cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
> > national travel restrictions
> >
> > China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
> > approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
> > New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
> > would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
> > unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
> > than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
> > cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
> > policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
> > any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
> > the same manner.
> >
> > For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
> > sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
> > could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
> > the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
> > for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
> > movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
> > quarantine.
> >
> > Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
> > Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
> > quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
> > outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
> > the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
> > govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic
> >
> > transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
> > mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
> > classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
> > outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
> > prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
> > at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.
> >
> > The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
> > to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
> > diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.
> >
> > There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
> > productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
> > to a site for Covid testing.
> >
> > There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
> > Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
> > disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
> > growth in China. Newly released data from the National
> > Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
> > during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
> > to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
> > turing activity into contractionary territory for the
> > first time since Feb 2020.
> >
> > Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
> > zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
> > kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
> > for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
> > experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
> > Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
> > should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.
> >
> > One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
> > been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
> > vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
> > Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
> > achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
> > But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
> > efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
> > reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
> > vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
> > to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
> > most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
> > that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
> > the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
> > after reaching 80% vaccination.
> >
> > But sticking with the current approach would transform
> > China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
> > there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
> > less effective at protecting against new variants of the
> > virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
> > as the country opens up.
> >
> > China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
> > And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
> > unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
> > rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
> > last another two years or more.
> >
> > Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
> > “living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
> > turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
> > backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
> > most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
> > strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
> > would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
> > on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
> > vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
> > interest, both in the short and long term.
> >
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html
> Latest:
> In the Chinese city of Putian, Fujian Province, because of one Chinese returning from Singapore with the Delta variant, almost 200 people have so far been infected.
>
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3148772/covid-19-cases-still-rising-chinas-delta-variant-outbreak
>
> In the end, it may be several times more over more places in China.
> "30,000 people from Putian had already left the city before the outbreak emerged"
>
> That's from just because of one person. You still think zero-infection tolerance is not the right way to go?
>
> In the US, for the past week, average daily new infections is about 150K. Hospital resources are wearing thin again.
>
> There is no other way but zero-infection tolerance as new variants become more infectious, contagious and virulent.
>
> There should also be zero-freedom tolerance. Human freedom is aiding the virus to spread freely.

The issue is how much Covid is like flu at this stage.
Every variant would change lethality and/or transmissability.
In the long run, all virus and bacteria caused diseases would become less lethal
for two reasons:
1) Not killing the human hosts mean more opportunity for reproduction.
2) The population would build up a huge library of anti-bodies if the people
have encounter many many variants over the year.

We have to live with Covid by default in the past. But no reason to until we
have to given presently available medical and biological technology.

On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:12:13 AM UTC-4, gera...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 7:53:08 AM UTC, David P. wrote:
> > China Doesn’t Want to ‘Live With’ Covid. But It May Have To.
> > By Yanzhong Huang, 9/7/21, NY Times
> >
> > China’s zero-infections policy is no longer working as
> > designed. At the outset of the pandemic, the policy success-
> > fully drove down cases — and was adopted by other countries
> > — but the Delta variant changed the game & shows that this
> > strategy no longer fits. It’s time for China to change tack,
> > as the socioeconomic and public health costs now outweigh
> > the benefits with this highly transmissible new variant.
> > If it doesn’t, China and its people will suffer.
> >
> > While other countries were still in the grips of pandemic,
> > China by early April 2020 had managed to get the virus
> > under control within its territory. It implemented a zero-
> > infections policy, under which the identification of even
> > one local Covid case would trigger draconian measures in
> > order to reset local cases to zero. To fend off imported
> > cases, China imposed some of the world’s toughest inter-
> > national travel restrictions
> >
> > China is not the only country to pursue a zero-tolerance
> > approach toward Covid-19. Other countries that did, like
> > New Zealand, are also now seeing less success. But few
> > would dispute that China’s authoritarian govt, with
> > unrivaled power & resources, is in a much better position
> > than almost any other nation to quickly eliminate new
> > cases and make the strategy work. So the fact that the
> > policy isn’t working as intended is bad news for China and
> > any other country aiming to fully stamp out the virus in
> > the same manner.
> >
> > For over a year, the policy showed good results. Small &
> > sporadic outbreaks were usually quelled before cases
> > could spread to other regions. Local officials relied on
> > the extreme-measures songbook: They launched mass testing
> > for Covid-19, used QR codes to trace and control people’s
> > movements & rounded up entire neighborhoods for mandatory
> > quarantine.
> >
> > Then came the Delta variant. An outbreak that started in
> > Nanjing, in China’s eastern Jiangsu Province, on July 20
> > quickly spread to at least 17 provinces, causing the worst
> > outbreak since Wuhan. Now over a month has elapsed since
> > the first Nanjing cases were identified — and the Chinese
> > govt still has been unable to completely break the domestic
> >
> > transmission chain. As of Sunday, there were still 3 inter-
> > mediate-risk Covid areas nationwide, acc. to the govt’s
> > classification system. In Yangzhou, which became the new
> > outbreak epicenter in Jiangsu Province, residents were
> > prevented from leaving their homes for a month & underwent
> > at least 12 mandatory rounds of nucleic acid testing.
> >
> > The failure of such high-profile & high-powered measures
> > to bring a speedy end to this outbreak highlights the
> > diminishing returns of the zero-tolerance approach.
> >
> > There also are signs that this approach is becoming counter-
> > productive: Some 10% of the cases in Yangzhou were traced
> > to a site for Covid testing.
> >
> > There are worrying long-term secondary effects, as well.
> > Increased absenteeism, drops in employee productivity and
> > disruption to supply chains threaten overall economic
> > growth in China. Newly released data from the National
> > Bureau of Stats suggests that strict lockdown measures
> > during the recent Delta variant outbreak have contributed
> > to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, sending nonmanufac-
> > turing activity into contractionary territory for the
> > first time since Feb 2020.
> >
> > Some Chinese health experts have begun to question the
> > zero-tolerance strategy, though the govt has not looked
> > kindly upon it. A teacher in Jiangxi Province was detained
> > for 15 days in August for suggesting that Yangzhou
> > experiment with a different approach to epidemic control.
> > Dr. Zhang Wenhong — dubbed China’s Dr. Fauci — said China
> > should learn to coexist with the virus but backtracked.
> >
> > One rationale for sustaining the existing approach has
> > been to buy time for China to reach herd immunity thru
> > vaccination. Delta makes this argument irrelevant. Zhong
> > Nanshan, a top public health adviser, said China can
> > achieve herd immunity with around an 80% vaccination rate.
> > But he appears to have used an unrealistically high
> > efficacy rate for Chinese vaccines. Based on my calcs,
> > reaching herd immunity is not possible with the existing
> > vaccine regimen in China. It’s likely there will continue
> > to be some cases, though vaccination can still prevent the
> > most severe impacts of the disease. It’s no wonder, then,
> > that a senior official with China’s C.D.C. admitted that
> > the country could continue to experience outbreaks even
> > after reaching 80% vaccination.
> >
> > But sticking with the current approach would transform
> > China into a hermit nation that could be dangerous. If
> > there are low levels of natural immunity and vaccines are
> > less effective at protecting against new variants of the
> > virus, then reaching zero infections will not be possible
> > as the country opens up.
> >
> > China can’t afford to keep its borders closed forever.
> > And the pandemic is not over. Given the still-low and
> > unequal coverage of Covid vaccines worldwide and the
> > rampant spread of the Delta variant, this pandemic may
> > last another two years or more.
> >
> > Other govts already have shifted to policies aimed at
> > “living with,” not eradicating, Covid-19. Singapore
> > turned to a strategy of phased and contingent reopening
> > backed by mass vaccination. Even Australia, arguably the
> > most zealous liberal democracy in pursuing a zero-tolerance
> > strategy, now has proposed a road map to reopen. China
> > would be wise to take heed and pivot. A strategy focused
> > on preventing severe cases and deaths and administering
> > vaccines with high efficacy would be in China’s best
> > interest, both in the short and long term.
> >
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/China-covid-pandemic-delta.html
> Latest:
> In the Chinese city of Putian, Fujian Province, because of one Chinese returning from Singapore with the Delta variant, almost 200 people have so far been infected.
>
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3148772/covid-19-cases-still-rising-chinas-delta-variant-outbreak
>
> In the end, it may be several times more over more places in China.
> "30,000 people from Putian had already left the city before the outbreak emerged"
>
> That's from just because of one person. You still think zero-infection tolerance is not the right way to go?
>
> In the US, for the past week, average daily new infections is about 150K. Hospital resources are wearing thin again.
>
> There is no other way but zero-infection tolerance as new variants become more infectious, contagious and virulent.
>
> There should also be zero-freedom tolerance. Human freedom is aiding the virus to spread freely.