"In short, China should be able to narrow the gap with America in the 2020s, but its growth will probably slow down in the 2030s, and the prospect of China overtaking America will look increasingly dim. If this is the case, the coming decade might be the most volatile because China’s continuing ascent might make its leaders more reckless and Washington less secure.

In fact, a strategic stalemate seems the likeliest outcome. However unsatisfying, this will be a net improvement upon the status quo. Instead of spiralling dangerously out of control, bilateral relations will probably settle at an equilibrium with lower military tensions and far less diplomatic vitriol. America’s security alliance in Asia will remain largely intact, thus preventing China from achieving regional hegemony or absorbing Taiwan. Through arms control and renewed diplomatic engagement reminiscent of the US-Soviet détente, both countries may be able to agree on a set of rules confining their rivalry to a small number of realms unlikely to trigger a full-fledged conflict.

This is not exactly the scenario hoped for by strategists wishing to repeat America’s victory over the Soviet Union in the cold war. Nor is it the “great rejuvenation” President Xi Jinping has in mind. But even without turning China into the world’s most powerful country, the Chinese Communist Party will still be a winner: unlike its defunct Soviet cousin, the CCP will remain solidly in control of a superpower that the Americans fail to vanquish."

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/08/30/minxin-pei-on-why-china-will-not-surpass-the-united-states

Possibly the most honest article from Pei. Still his faith in the US still reflects his blind spots about the US .

On Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 12:46:42 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> "In short, China should be able to narrow the gap with America in the 2020s, but its growth will probably slow down in the 2030s, and the prospect of China overtaking America will look increasingly dim. If this is the case, the coming decade might be the most volatile because China’s continuing ascent might make its leaders more reckless and Washington less secure.
>
> In fact, a strategic stalemate seems the likeliest outcome. However unsatisfying, this will be a net improvement upon the status quo. Instead of spiralling dangerously out of control, bilateral relations will probably settle at an equilibrium with lower military tensions and far less diplomatic vitriol. America’s security alliance in Asia will remain largely intact, thus preventing China from achieving regional hegemony or absorbing Taiwan. Through arms control and renewed diplomatic engagement reminiscent of the US-Soviet détente, both countries may be able to agree on a set of rules confining their rivalry to a small number of realms unlikely to trigger a full-fledged conflict.
>
> This is not exactly the scenario hoped for by strategists wishing to repeat America’s victory over the Soviet Union in the cold war. Nor is it the “great rejuvenation” President Xi Jinping has in mind. But even without turning China into the world’s most powerful country, the Chinese Communist Party will still be a winner: unlike its defunct Soviet cousin, the CCP will remain solidly in control of a superpower that the Americans fail to vanquish."
>
> https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/08/30/minxin-pei-on-why-china-will-not-surpass-the-united-states
>
> Possibly the most honest article from Pei. Still his faith in the US still reflects his blind spots about the US .
-----------

Wahahaha! Another Gordon Chang, author of the useless "The Coming Collapse of China". The US, drunk with yellow peril hysteria and hatred, is the only country in the world that could sustain a China collapse industry. The US has so abused the world's trust and weaponized the US dollar and the international banking SWIFT payment system, that every country in the world, including US allies, are scrambling to find safe havens in other currencies. Having lost its manufacturing prowess, the US relies on its financial hegemony of the world to keep itself prosperous. The digital yuan will end US power.

Wakalukong

China's continuing ascent will not make its leaders more reckless and
Washington less secure.

It is Washington's jealousy of China's ascent. Which part is more reckless
and more volatile is perception is not identified and explained. China is
not reckless when defending its own rights of internal affairs, and rights
not to interfere other's internal affairs.

It is Washington's self esteem and inferiority complex to feel their
superiority is less secure because Washington's perceived China is superior
because its ascents of economy and military too.

Whether China's economic continuing ascent or not is not relevant to its
military ascent. China's economy is dipped by the pandemic now and then, but
its military ascent will continue to cruise ahead.

China's military ascent will continuously sustain to its capability around
the world, helping countries around the world, and to protect its interests.
China is not in want to be superpower in military. It's Washington's
perception of it.

China will not compete with any country for the superpower post. China is
enough to be a humble military power of its own. It will have its own
standing power of projection to monitor and protect its external interests.

China will project its military at its own speed and time to address its
needs for it . China's military will have its own bending moment and moment
of torsion when need to flex to protect its interests.

"ltlee1" wrote in message
news:e02faf9a-f272-4147-9263-9b6a9229bbfan@googlegroups.com...

"In short, China should be able to narrow the gap with America in the 2020s,
but its growth will probably slow down in the 2030s, and the prospect of
China overtaking America will look increasingly dim. If this is the case,
the coming decade might be the most volatile because China’s continuing
ascent might make its leaders more reckless and Washington less secure.

In fact, a strategic stalemate seems the likeliest outcome. However
unsatisfying, this will be a net improvement upon the status quo. Instead of
spiralling dangerously out of control, bilateral relations will probably
settle at an equilibrium with lower military tensions and far less
diplomatic vitriol. America’s security alliance in Asia will remain largely
intact, thus preventing China from achieving regional hegemony or absorbing
Taiwan. Through arms control and renewed diplomatic engagement reminiscent
of the US-Soviet détente, both countries may be able to agree on a set of
rules confining their rivalry to a small number of realms unlikely to
trigger a full-fledged conflict.

This is not exactly the scenario hoped for by strategists wishing to repeat
America’s victory over the Soviet Union in the cold war. Nor is it the
“great rejuvenation” President Xi Jinping has in mind. But even without
turning China into the world’s most powerful country, the Chinese Communist
Party will still be a winner: unlike its defunct Soviet cousin, the CCP will
remain solidly in control of a superpower that the Americans fail to
vanquish."

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/08/30/minxin-pei-on-why-china-will-not-surpass-the-united-states

Possibly the most honest article from Pei. Still his faith in the US still
reflects his blind spots about the US .