https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/22/russia-niger-africa-biden-strategy-00153734

U.S. officials are starting to accept that their strategy
of pressing Niger and other war-battered African countries
to break off ties with Moscow and embrace democratic norms
is no longer working.

The recent breakdown in relations with Niger, where American
troops are set to withdraw as Russian fighters arrive, has
forced a reckoning inside the Biden administration over its
approach to maintaining its allies in volatile parts of
Africa, according to two officials familiar with the matter.
Both officials were granted anonymity to speak about
sensitive diplomatic negotiations.

Countries across the continent, including Chad, Central
African Republic, Mali and Libya, have turned toward Russia
for security assistance. Now, in Niger, Russian paramilitary
fighters have arrived, sidelining the U.S. and forcing the
withdrawal of 1,100 U.S. military personnel there in the
next several months, one of the officials said.

.. . .

I don't see any changes in this trajectory alas.

Africa is HUGE and has HUGE resources. Russia and
China WANT those resources all to themselves.

They're getting their way.

The Russian and Chinese systems allow them to deploy
cash and military assets in a way and scale The West
just can't keep up with for political/fiscal reasons.
To Africans they seem like The Winners - so .....

Oh, and INDIA ... Modi is more friendly with Russia
now than the USA/UK ... that's well over a billion
people, WITH nuclear weapons .......