from
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/apr/11/chris-murphy/fact-checking-chris-murphy-on-how-much-firearm-law/

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Chris Murphy
stated on April 3, 2023 in a tweet:
“The 5 states with the highest gun homicide rates in the nation all have
loose gun laws” while “the 5 states with the lowest rates have some of
the toughest laws.”
true half-true
LEGAL ISSUES PUBLIC HEALTH GUNS CHRIS MURPHY
Semi-automatic handguns are displayed Jan. 11, 2023, in New York City.
(AP)Semi-automatic handguns are displayed Jan. 11, 2023, in New York
City. (AP)
Semi-automatic handguns are displayed Jan. 11, 2023, in New York City. (AP)

Louis Jacobson
By Louis Jacobson
April 11, 2023
Do loose gun laws lead to more gun deaths? Fact-checking Sen. Chris
Murphy’s claim
IF YOUR TIME IS SHORT

• Data shows some correlation between looser gun laws and higher gun
homicide rates in a state, and vice versa.

• But that relationship does not always hold true. Many states with
relatively loose gun laws also have low gun homicide rates, and some
states with tighter laws have relatively high gun homicide rates.

• Experts say gun laws are one of several factors that play a role in
the gun homicide rate.

See the sources for this fact-check
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., one of Congress’ leading advocates of
stricter gun laws, recently tweeted a statistic that he said shows that
more restrictive gun laws can save lives.

"The 5 states with the highest gun homicide rates in the nation all have
loose gun laws" while "the 5 states with the lowest rates have some of
the toughest laws," Murphy tweeted April 3.

Murphy listed what he said were the top five states for gun homicide
rates: Alaska, Alabama, Montana, Louisiana and Mississippi (though he
incorrectly used the postal abbreviation for Michigan). These states
each have a failing grade on gun laws from the Giffords Law Center,
which supports laws to prevent gun violence.

The states he said had the lowest gun homicide rates were Hawaii, New
York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Those states have
high marks from Giffords for gun laws, because they have policies such
as universal background checks, assault weapon restrictions, a large
capacity magazine ban and strong concealed carry laws.

Shortly after Murphy tweeted, a reader sent PolitiFact the link and
asked whether Murphy’s claim is correct.

When we examined the claim further, we found issues with Murphy’s
framing of the data and his oversimplified conclusion.

Twitter attached a note to Murphy’s tweet based on crowdsourced
feedback. It said that the numbers in his cited source, a webpage at the
World Population Review website, represent gun deaths per capita, which
include suicides, not just homicides.

Responding to PolitiFact’s inquiry, Murphy’s press office acknowledged
the mistake, and his Twitter account appended a reply noting the
discrepancy.

Regardless of how suicides shift the data, the connection between gun
laws and death rates is still not as direct as Murphy presented.

Some states with less restrictive gun laws — such as Nebraska, North
Dakota, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont — have low rates of gun
homicides.

And some states with restrictive gun laws, including Illinois and
Maryland, have high rates of gun homicide.

Experts say that factors beyond gun laws can influence a state’s gun
homicide rate.

"There is no simple correlation of gun control severity and violence
rates," said Gary Kleck, a Florida State University emeritus professor
of criminology.

How the states rank
The most readily available data, from websites like Giffords’ and World
Population Review, tends to use overall gun deaths, not just gun
homicides. So, there can be confusion when people, including Murphy, try
to cite data on homicides and offer instead overall data for homicides
and suicides.

FEATURED FACT-CHECK

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By Madison Czopek • May 23, 2023
This is not a trivial difference. According to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, the U.S. in 2020 had 19,384 gun homicides but a
significantly larger number of suicides: 24,292. An additional 535 gun
deaths were ruled accidental, 611 were due to law enforcement
intervention, and 400 were undetermined. So homicides in 2020 accounted
for about 43% of all gun deaths.

Suicides are an important issue within the category of gun violence.
However, because Murphy’s tweet specifically cited the link between gun
homicide and gun laws, we wanted to test his original proposition. We
collected state-by-state gun homicide data using an online tool run by
the CDC. Using data filters, we looked at states’ rate of gun homicides
and fatal law enforcement shootings per 100,000 residents in 2020.

We layered the state homicide data with an assessment of gun laws by
Guns & Ammo magazine, which is geared toward gun owners. The magazine
uses a 50-point scale to rate each state on the strictness of its gun
laws, with 50 being the least restrictive.

Using the homicide data alone, without including suicides, changes the
roster of highest- and lowest-ranking states for homicides from what
Murphy said in his tweet.

CDC data shows the five states with the highest gun homicide rates were
Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina. These
states have some of the nation’s most permissive laws on guns, such as
allowing guns to be carried without a permit and having barriers to
enforce federal gun laws.

Using the CDC data, the five states in 2020 with the lowest gun homicide
rates were Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Idaho and Hawaii. Notably,
most of those states were not included in Murphy’s initial tweet, and
all except Hawaii have relatively permissive gun laws.

Other states within the list of bottom 10 gun homicide rates, notably
Nebraska and North Dakota, also have relatively permissive laws,
according to the Guns & Ammo ranking. States with tighter gun laws,
including Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Minnesota, are also in the
bottom 10.

Other factors beyond gun laws
A key complicating factor that Murphy ignores is region.

The list of 10 states with the highest gun homicide rates, according to
the CDC, includes seven in the South: Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama,
South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Georgia.

By contrast, the bottom 10 mostly includes states that are northeastern
(Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island) or are
in the Great Plains or Rocky Mountain regions (Idaho, North Dakota,
Minnesota and Nebraska).

Beyond historical-cultural factors, many of the states with high gun
homicide rates have higher poverty rates and less developed trauma care
resources, both of which can affect death rates from gun violence, said
Jay Corzine, a University of Central Florida emeritus professor of
sociology and a homicide and gun policy expert.

Meanwhile, some states that have tight gun laws and large cities with
poverty and gang activity rank relatively high, such as Illinois and
Maryland.

"There is certainly a correlation between gun laws and gun violence
rates, but determining causation is virtually impossible," said Jaclyn
Schildkraut, executive director for the Rockefeller Institute of
Government’s Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium in Albany, New
York. "There are too many variables at play, some of which cannot be
controlled for."

Our ruling
Murphy tweeted, "The 5 states with the highest gun homicide rates in the
nation all have loose gun laws" while "the 5 states with the lowest
rates have some of the toughest laws."

Murphy is partially accurate when he said the top five states for gun
homicide death rates include only states with looser gun laws. However,
his framing ignores that several states with relatively loose gun laws
have low gun homicide rates, and some states with tighter laws have
relatively high gun homicide rates.

Experts say other variables, including region, poverty and medical
infrastructure, also shape the gun homicide rate.

The statement is partially accurate but leaves out important
information. So, we rate the statement Half True.

Our Sources
Chris Murphy, tweet, April 3, 2023

Chris Murphy, tweet, April 6, 2023

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WISQARS Fatal and Nonfatal
Injury Reports, accessed April 6, 2023

Guns & Ammo, "The Best States for Gun Owners: Ranked for 2022," Aug 18, 2022

Giffords, state gun ratings, accessed April 10, 2023

Everytown Research & Policy, "Gun Safety Policies Save Lives: Which
states have the ideal laws to prevent gun violence?" accessed April 6, 2023

Michael Siegel, Max Goder-Reiser, Grant Duwe, Michael Rocque, James Alan
Fox, and Emma E. Fridel, "The Relation Between State Gun Laws and the
Incidence and Severity of Mass Public Shootings in the United States,
1976–2018" (Law and Human Behavior), 2020