On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so I'll jot down my
> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions that I've formed
> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>
> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.

I'll give it a go again this year.

Eastern Conference

Panthers (A1) vs Lightning (WC1)

In their previous two playoff matchups in 2021 and 2022, the Battle of
Florida has gone Tampa's way, but I feel like this year it should be
the Panthers' time to shine, because last year's cinderella Eastern
champions have gone and improved in practically every area - goalscoring
(Reinhart has been killing it), goaltending (Bob has been as good as
ever, and Stolarz is the best back-up in the league), defence (Forsling
has the best +/- rating in the NHL), and shithousery (Nick Cousins is
such a rat).

Tampa OTOH are the same they've always been - the same old core
including a brilliant Kucherov (100 assists for the season, a feat prior
to this season only managed by Orr (once), Lemieux (once) and Gretzky
(11 times) - this year McDavid has managed it, too -, an aging Stamkos
that can still fire the puck like there's no tomorrow but sometimes
looks as if he's hardly able to skate anymore, a defence struggling with
injuries (Hedman has turned it on recently though), and an ever more
inconsistent Vasilevsky in goal.

Of course, you never know. But still, Florida in 6.

Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)

'It was 4-1!'

This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last
season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and
Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence,
goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the
seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.

Boston in 7.

Rangers (M1) vs Capitals (WC2)

To the surprise of many, the Rangers have managed to win the Presidents'
Trophy as the best team of the Regular Season, and there was indeed much
to like about them this year - most of all Artemi Panarin shaving off
his flowing locks and going on a tear, perhaps there's a correlation -
but also a couple of reasons for concern - there were long stretches
during the season where they didn't do much outside the powerplay, and
Shesterkin in net took a while to get back to the level one is used to
seeing from him. But he formed a good tandem with Jonathan Quick (happy
to see him bounce back at the age of 38 from a really bad season), who
picked up the slack when Shesterkin faltered, and vice versa.

Washington OTOH should actually have no business being in this tie
(they even were sellers at the trade deadline), what with their -37 goal
difference, by far the worst for a playoff-bound team in the current
era, but yet here they are, buoyed by hard-nosed defending, brilliant
goaltending from previous journeyman Charlie Lindgren (a sibling duel
coming up, his younger brother Ryan is a defenceman for the Rangers),
and surprising contributions from both their Old (Ovie looks ancient and
took a loooong time to get going, but did so in the end, Oshie chipped
in with some timely goals, Carlson was solid) and New Guard (they have
some really good development going on over in Hershey, the Bears are the
best team in the AHL).
All courtesy of rookie coach Spencer Carbery, the best hire the Caps
could have made, and good on them for getting off the usual NHL coaches
merry-go-round.

Of course, the other teams in the Metro Division (Pittsburgh, New
Jersey, Philadelphia) shitting the bed also helped.

New York Rangers in 5.

Hurricanes (M2) vs Islanders (M3)

A repeat of last year's First Round match-up, and the Islanders, like
Washington, are a team that are here mostly not due to own merit, but
because their division rivals have been bad. I'll give them this though
- after having changed coaches from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy they
have become much less tedious to watch, even if only for Roy's
propensity to pull the goalie ten minutes before the end of a game.

But there's much more to like about Carolina, not the least of which the
way they handled the Trade Deadline, calmly identifying needs and then
addressing them - e.g. getting Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh was an
inspired move, and Guentzel also very quickly silenced those critics who
questioned if he could put up numbers without Crosby at his side.

The only reason they didn't win their division (or indeed, the
Presidents' Trophy) was that they somewhat bungled their goaltender
situation, but that issue looks resolved now that Frederik Andersen has
returned from his health scare (a blood clotting issue) and been
amazing. I'll spill the beans and admit that in my playoff bracket I
have Carolina going very far.

Last years the Canes won in 6, this time I expect them to make even
shorter work of it.

Carolina in 5.

Western Conference

Stars (C1) vs Golden Knights (WC2)

So Dallas have done practically everything right, built a great roster,
won the Western Conference, missed out on the Presidents' Trophy by a
point, and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup
with the reigning Stanley Cup champions. A slew of injuries halfway
through the season has given Vegas an (ultimately not very serious)
scare about missing the playoffs, but lo and behold! Miraculously all
their LTIR players (Eichel, Hertl, Stone) are back on the ice just
before the start of the playoffs, fully Salary Cap-compliant, and none
the worse for wear.

My sympathies are definitely with Dallas in this one, but this is the
tie where I've flip-flopped around a couple of times in my prediction
bracket, with repercussions all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals which
both teams could reach.

Vegas in 7. But it could just as easily be the other way around.

Jets (C2) v Avalanche (C3)

So Winnipeg have done practically everything right - when everyone
expected a rebuild or worse, instead during the off-season they re-
signed Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck to long-term contracts,
shipped out deadweight like Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois (for
whom they got a great return), played their best regular season in ages,
and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup with a
Nathan MacKinnon-powered Avalanche side that has gone full out this year
at the Trade Deadline.

But while Colorado in some matches look like a machine that can
streamroll anyone, on other occasions they have looked fragile, most
of all in goal where Alexandar Georgiev has collected the most wins
in the league with a sub-.900 saving percentage.

But as the Avalanche have shown in the past - if you're good enough up
front you don't really need stellar goaltending to go all the way (they
won the Cup with Darcy Kuemper), and if MacKinnon manages to turn it on,
he's nigh unplayable.

So, with a somewhat heavy heart, I pick Colorado in 6.

Canucks (P1) v Predators (WC1)

Following last year's unmitigated disaster of a season, Vancouver came
roaring out of the gates this year, and for long stretches up to the
All-Star break they had the best record of the league. But they've
cooled off quite a bit since then, not accidentally coinciding with an
injury to their goaltender Thatcher Demko, and while Demko has made it
back in time for the playoffs, question marks remain.

Nashville on the contrary are kind of the opposite - a bubble team for
most of the season they suffered an embarrassing loss against Dallas
just before the All-Star break, which prompted their management to
cancel a scheduled trip to a U2 concert in the Las Vegas Sphere, and
it appears that this disappointment spurred those big U2 fans to go
on something like a 20-game unbeaten run that easily secured them a
place in the playoffs. They've never been flashy, just incredibly solid,
with especially Saros, Josi and Forsberg delivering night after night.

This is the tie where I feel an upset is most likely. Nashville in 6.

Oilers (P2) v Kings (P3)

Another repeat of a First Round matchup from last year. It's notable
that there are only three new teams in the playoffs this season
(Washington instead of New Jersey in the East, Vancouver and Nashville
in place of Minnesota and Seattle in the West). It's hard work to turn
the fortunes of an NHL franchise around.

Now here's the thing - after last year's Second Round loss to Vegas,
the Oilers management and staff confidently declared that they'd
identified those issues that prevented their success in the playoffs,
and that they'd make the appropriate changes to the setup of the team -
and then they went and started the season with an atrocious run that saw
their coach Jay Woodcroft fired after 13 games when they had a worse
record than San Jose (!). New manager Kris Knoblauch (formerly McDavid's
junior coach) came in, went back to the system everyone was used to, and
lo and behold, Edmonton went on an unbeaten run that looked very much
like their Regular Season success in the last couple of years.

They say the definition of insanity is picking the Leafs to win a series
and of course they dont and then the next year picking them again to win.

But it is early, only one game played.

Carolina won their first match.

On 2024-04-20 5:25 p.m., Werner Pichler wrote:
> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
>> I'll jot down my
>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>> that I've formed
>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>
>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>
>
> I'll give it a go again this year.
>
>
>
> Eastern Conference
>
>
> Panthers (A1) vs Lightning (WC1)
>
> In their previous two playoff matchups in 2021 and 2022, the Battle of
> Florida has gone Tampa's way, but I feel like this year it should be
> the Panthers' time to shine, because last year's cinderella Eastern
> champions have gone and improved in practically every area - goalscoring
> (Reinhart has been killing it), goaltending (Bob has been as good as
> ever, and Stolarz is the best back-up in the league), defence (Forsling
> has the best +/- rating in the NHL), and shithousery (Nick Cousins is
> such a rat).
>
> Tampa OTOH are the same they've always been - the same old core
> including a brilliant Kucherov (100 assists for the season, a feat prior
> to this season only managed by Orr (once), Lemieux (once) and Gretzky
> (11 times) - this year McDavid has managed it, too -, an aging Stamkos
> that can still fire the puck like there's no tomorrow but sometimes
> looks as if he's hardly able to skate anymore, a defence struggling with
> injuries (Hedman has turned it on recently though), and an ever more
> inconsistent Vasilevsky in goal.
>
> Of course, you never know. But still, Florida in 6.
>
>
>
> Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)
>
> 'It was 4-1!'
>
> This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last
> season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and
> Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence,
> goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the
> seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
> Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.
>
> Boston in 7.
>
>
>
> Rangers (M1) vs Capitals (WC2)
>
> To the surprise of many, the Rangers have managed to win the Presidents'
> Trophy as the best team of the Regular Season, and there was indeed much
> to like about them this year - most of all Artemi Panarin shaving off
> his flowing locks and going on a tear, perhaps there's a correlation -
> but also a couple of reasons for concern - there were long stretches
> during the season where they didn't do much outside the powerplay, and
> Shesterkin in net took a while to get back to the level one is used to
> seeing from him. But he formed a good tandem with Jonathan Quick (happy
> to see him bounce back at the age of 38 from a really bad season), who
> picked up the slack when Shesterkin faltered, and vice versa.
>
> Washington OTOH should actually have no business being in this tie
> (they even were sellers at the trade deadline), what with their -37 goal
> difference, by far the worst for a playoff-bound team in the current
> era, but yet here they are, buoyed by hard-nosed defending, brilliant
> goaltending from previous journeyman Charlie Lindgren (a sibling duel
> coming up, his younger brother Ryan is a defenceman for the Rangers),
> and surprising contributions from both their Old (Ovie looks ancient and
> took a loooong time to get going, but did so in the end, Oshie chipped
> in with some timely goals, Carlson was solid) and New Guard (they have
> some really good development going on over in Hershey, the Bears are the
> best team in the AHL).
> All courtesy of rookie coach Spencer Carbery, the best hire the Caps
> could have made, and good on them for getting off the usual NHL coaches
> merry-go-round.
>
> Of course, the other teams in the Metro Division (Pittsburgh, New
> Jersey, Philadelphia) shitting the bed also helped.
>
> New York Rangers in 5.
>
>
>
> Hurricanes (M2) vs Islanders (M3)
>
> A repeat of last year's First Round match-up, and the Islanders, like
> Washington, are a team that are here mostly not due to own merit, but
> because their division rivals have been bad. I'll give them this though
> - after having changed coaches from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy they
> have become much less tedious to watch, even if only for Roy's
> propensity to pull the goalie ten minutes before the end of a game.
>
> But there's much more to like about Carolina, not the least of which the
> way they handled the Trade Deadline, calmly identifying needs and then
> addressing them - e.g. getting Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh was an
> inspired move, and Guentzel also very quickly silenced those critics who
> questioned if he could put up numbers without Crosby at his side.
>
> The only reason they didn't win their division (or indeed, the
> Presidents' Trophy) was that they somewhat bungled their goaltender
> situation, but that issue looks resolved now that Frederik Andersen has
> returned from his health scare (a blood clotting issue) and been
> amazing. I'll spill the beans and admit that in my playoff bracket I
> have Carolina going very far.
>
> Last years the Canes won in 6, this time I expect them to make even
> shorter work of it.
>
> Carolina in 5.
>
>
>
> Western Conference
>
>
> Stars (C1) vs Golden Knights (WC2)
>
> So Dallas have done practically everything right, built a great roster,
> won the Western Conference, missed out on the Presidents' Trophy by a
> point, and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup
> with the reigning Stanley Cup champions. A slew of injuries halfway
> through the season has given Vegas an (ultimately not very serious)
> scare about missing the playoffs, but lo and behold! Miraculously all
> their LTIR players (Eichel, Hertl, Stone) are back on the ice just
> before the start of the playoffs, fully Salary Cap-compliant, and none
> the worse for wear.
>
> My sympathies are definitely with Dallas in this one, but this is the
> tie where I've flip-flopped around a couple of times in my prediction
> bracket, with repercussions all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals which
> both teams could reach.
>
> Vegas in 7. But it could just as easily be the other way around.
>
>
>
> Jets (C2) v Avalanche (C3)
>
> So Winnipeg have done practically everything right - when everyone
> expected a rebuild or worse, instead during the off-season they re-
> signed Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck to long-term contracts,
> shipped out deadweight like Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois (for
> whom they got a great return), played their best regular season in ages,
> and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup with a
> Nathan MacKinnon-powered Avalanche side that has gone full out this year
> at the Trade Deadline.
>
> But while Colorado in some matches look like a machine that can
> streamroll anyone, on other occasions they have looked fragile, most
> of all in goal where Alexandar Georgiev has collected the most wins
> in the league with a sub-.900 saving percentage.
>
> But as the Avalanche have shown in the past - if you're good enough up
> front you don't really need stellar goaltending to go all the way (they
> won the Cup with Darcy Kuemper), and if MacKinnon manages to turn it on,
> he's nigh unplayable.
>
> So, with a somewhat heavy heart, I pick Colorado in 6.
>
>
>
> Canucks (P1) v Predators (WC1)
>
> Following last year's unmitigated disaster of a season, Vancouver came
> roaring out of the gates this year, and for long stretches up to the
> All-Star break they had the best record of the league. But they've
> cooled off quite a bit since then, not accidentally coinciding with an
> injury to their goaltender Thatcher Demko, and while Demko has made it
> back in time for the playoffs, question marks remain.
>
> Nashville on the contrary are kind of the opposite - a bubble team for
> most of the season they suffered an embarrassing loss against Dallas
> just before the All-Star break, which prompted their management to
> cancel a scheduled trip to a U2 concert in the Las Vegas Sphere, and
> it appears that this disappointment spurred those big U2 fans to go
> on something like a 20-game unbeaten run that easily secured them a
> place in the playoffs. They've never been flashy, just incredibly solid,
> with especially Saros, Josi and Forsberg delivering night after night.
>
> This is the tie where I feel an upset is most likely. Nashville in 6.
>
>
>
> Oilers (P2) v Kings (P3)
>
> Another repeat of a First Round matchup from last year. It's notable
> that there are only three new teams in the playoffs this season
> (Washington instead of New Jersey in the East, Vancouver and Nashville
> in place of Minnesota and Seattle in the West). It's hard work to turn
> the fortunes of an NHL franchise around.
>
> Now here's the thing - after last year's Second Round loss to Vegas,
> the Oilers management and staff confidently declared that they'd
> identified those issues that prevented their success in the playoffs,
> and that they'd make the appropriate changes to the setup of the team -
> and then they went and started the season with an atrocious run that saw
> their coach Jay Woodcroft fired after 13 games when they had a worse
> record than San Jose (!). New manager Kris Knoblauch (formerly McDavid's
> junior coach) came in, went back to the system everyone was used to, and
> lo and behold, Edmonton went on an unbeaten run that looked very much
> like their Regular Season success in the last couple of years.
>
> But the question lingers - and in the playoffs?
>
> But at least it should be enough to overcome the Kings, who are
> noticeably worse than last year, despite starting the season with a
> record-breaking streak of away wins, got fleeced on the Dubois trade,
> also fired their manager, and somewhat limped into the playoffs.
>
>
> Edmonton in 6, just like last year.
>
>
>
>
> Ciao,
> Werner

Werner Pichler wrote:

> I'll give it a go again this year.

I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead, I went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More or less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).

There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.

Futbolmetrix wrote:

> Werner Pichler wrote:

>> I'll give it a go again this year.

> I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead, I went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More or less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).

> There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.

Wait, you can submit a bracket *after* the some of the first round matches have already been played? Maybe I should change my predictions (also, my warmer climate theory is not doing too well -- probably it's still cold in the iceberg and people are still into hockey)

On 2024-04-22 7:35 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
>> Werner Pichler wrote:
>
>
>>> I'll give it a go again this year.
>
>> I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead, I
>> went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More or
>> less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).
>
>> There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes
>> around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and
>> smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it
>> makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.
>
> Wait, you can submit a bracket *after* the some of the first round
> matches have already been played? Maybe I should change my predictions
> (also, my warmer climate theory is not doing too well -- probably it's
> still cold in the iceberg and people are still into hockey)

It is an interesting theory, though I went totally in the opposite
direction. I picked the coldest place on the Iceberg to win it all.
They got noting else in Edmonton, except a shopping mall, they live for
the ice hockey there.

got all 4 picks last night, I must be winning this bracket thing?

Maybe, just maybe the Leafs can win a playoff series, coming out of the
first two games in Boston 1-1 isnt bad.

On 2024-04-20 15:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
>> I'll jot down my
>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>> that I've formed
>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>
>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>
>
> I'll give it a go again this year.
>
>
Thanks for this. You have obviously been paying a lot more attention to
the NHL than I have. Calgary were so disappointing this year, and
whether the long term benefits of their rebuild will be apparent next
year is pretty doubtful. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Hanafin, Tanev and
others all gone, and other than Blake Coleman, and to an extent
Sharangovich, their replacements have underperformed.

All four Canada-based teams won their last game - must be ages since
that happened in the playoffs.

On 2024-04-23 05:28, Binder Dundat wrote:
> On 2024-04-22 7:35 a.m., Futbolmetrix wrote:
>> Futbolmetrix wrote:
>>
>>> Werner Pichler wrote:
>>
>>
>>>> I'll give it a go again this year.
>>
>>> I probably should have read this before filling my bracket. Instead,
>>> I went with the old rule "team from the warmer climate wins." (More
>>> or less, I may have deviated from the rule once or twice).
>>
>>> There's an elaborate theory behind this: when May and June comes
>>> around on the iceberg and surroundings, you want to go outside and
>>> smell the flowers, not play hockey. Teams from Florida and Texas, it
>>> makes no difference, so they keep on playing hard.
>>
>> Wait, you can submit a bracket *after* the some of the first round
>> matches have already been played? Maybe I should change my predictions
>> (also, my warmer climate theory is not doing too well -- probably it's
>> still cold in the iceberg and people are still into hockey)
>
> It is an interesting theory, though I went totally in the opposite
> direction.  I picked the coldest place on the Iceberg to win it all.
> They got noting else in Edmonton, except a shopping mall, they live for
> the ice hockey there.
>
Winnipeg is colder than Edmonton.

Edmonton does have Commonwealth Stadium. I have attended some games
there (WOrld Cup QUalifiers, U20 World CUp) and it is a pretty
impressive stadium by Canadian standards.

> got all 4 picks last night, I must be winning this bracket thing?
>
> Maybe, just maybe the Leafs can win a playoff series, coming out of the
> first two games in Boston 1-1 isnt bad.

Didn't they win the series vs. Boston last year ?

MH wrote:

> Didn't they win the series vs. Boston last year ?

I think Boston lost to the Panthers (warm climate theory FTW!)

On 2024-04-23 16:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> MH wrote:
>
>
>> Didn't they win the series vs. Boston last year ?
>
> I think Boston lost to the Panthers (warm climate theory FTW!)

yes, it was the Lightning (defending runners up, and champs the previous
two years) that lost to the Leafs. (warm climate theory kind of out there)

On 2024-04-23 11:40 a.m., MH wrote:
> On 2024-04-20 15:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
>>> I'll jot down my
>>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>>> that I've formed
>>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>>
>>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>>
>>
>> I'll give it a go again this year.
>>
>>
> Thanks for this. You have obviously been paying a lot more attention to
> the NHL than I have.  Calgary were so disappointing this year, and
> whether the long term benefits of their rebuild will be apparent next
> year is pretty doubtful.  Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Hanafin, Tanev and
> others all gone, and other than Blake Coleman, and to an extent
> Sharangovich, their replacements have underperformed.
>
> All four Canada-based teams won their last game - must be ages since
> that happened in the playoffs.
>
>

I am not sure if going all Homer on Canadian teams was such a good idea?
The Leafs are never a good idea and the Jets have a hill to climb, the
Oilers and Canucks look good to advance though.

Rangers are already through in 4 games, we are projecting them to win
the Cup.

On 2024-04-29 7:35 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
> On 2024-04-23 11:40 a.m., MH wrote:
>> On 2024-04-20 15:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual,
>>>> so I'll jot down my
>>>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>>>> that I've formed
>>>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>>>
>>>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>>>
>>>
>>> I'll give it a go again this year.
>>>
>>>
>> Thanks for this. You have obviously been paying a lot more attention
>> to the NHL than I have.  Calgary were so disappointing this year, and
>> whether the long term benefits of their rebuild will be apparent next
>> year is pretty doubtful.  Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Hanafin, Tanev
>> and others all gone, and other than Blake Coleman, and to an extent
>> Sharangovich, their replacements have underperformed.
>>
>> All four Canada-based teams won their last game - must be ages since
>> that happened in the playoffs.
>>
>>
>
> I am not sure if going all Homer on Canadian teams was such a good idea?
> The Leafs are never a good idea and the Jets have a hill to climb, the
> Oilers and Canucks look good to advance though.

The Leafs force a game 7, maybe it was genius pick and my east side of
the bracket is still OK. though for whatever reason, I am not sure if I
am even in the Bracket pool thing? For the record, as of this morning, I
am at 43 points. Well behind Werner at 56

>
> Rangers are already through in 4 games, we are projecting them to win
> the Cup.

On 20.04.2024 23:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
>> I'll jot down my
>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>> that I've formed
>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>
>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>
>
> I'll give it a go again this year.

And now I quickly need to brag a bit before the randomness of Game 7s
knocks me down from 7/8 correct series winners to 5/8.

> Eastern Conference
>
>
> Panthers (A1) vs Lightning (WC1)
>
> In their previous two playoff matchups in 2021 and 2022, the Battle of
> Florida has gone Tampa's way, but I feel like this year it should be
> the Panthers' time to shine, because last year's cinderella Eastern
> champions have gone and improved in practically every area - goalscoring
> (Reinhart has been killing it), goaltending (Bob has been as good as
> ever, and Stolarz is the best back-up in the league), defence (Forsling
> has the best +/- rating in the NHL), and shithousery (Nick Cousins is
> such a rat).
>
> Tampa OTOH are the same they've always been - the same old core
> including a brilliant Kucherov (100 assists for the season, a feat prior
> to this season only managed by Orr (once), Lemieux (once) and Gretzky
> (11 times) - this year McDavid has managed it, too -, an aging Stamkos
> that can still fire the puck like there's no tomorrow but sometimes
> looks as if he's hardly able to skate anymore, a defence struggling with
> injuries (Hedman has turned it on recently though), and an ever more
> inconsistent Vasilevsky in goal.
>
> Of course, you never know. But still, Florida in 6.

Yeah, Florida cruised to a win in 5. I see them as heavy favourites
against both Bruins or Leafs in Round 2.

> Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)
>
> 'It was 4-1!'
>
> This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last
> season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and
> Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence,
> goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the
> seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
> Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.
>
> Boston in 7.

And we have a Game 7, starting in a couple of hours. Boston could (and
should) have shut the door to a Leaf comeback after Game 4, but despite
(or due to???) Matthews missing because of an illness Toronto clawed
back in two hard-fought but not exactly pretty matches. Yeah, both teams
are noticeably worse than last year.

> Rangers (M1) vs Capitals (WC2)
>
> To the surprise of many, the Rangers have managed to win the Presidents'
> Trophy as the best team of the Regular Season, and there was indeed much
> to like about them this year - most of all Artemi Panarin shaving off
> his flowing locks and going on a tear, perhaps there's a correlation -
> but also a couple of reasons for concern - there were long stretches
> during the season where they didn't do much outside the powerplay, and
> Shesterkin in net took a while to get back to the level one is used to
> seeing from him. But he formed a good tandem with Jonathan Quick (happy
> to see him bounce back at the age of 38 from a really bad season), who
> picked up the slack when Shesterkin faltered, and vice versa.
>
> Washington OTOH should actually have no business being in this tie
> (they even were sellers at the trade deadline), what with their -37 goal
> difference, by far the worst for a playoff-bound team in the current
> era, but yet here they are, buoyed by hard-nosed defending, brilliant
> goaltending from previous journeyman Charlie Lindgren (a sibling duel
> coming up, his younger brother Ryan is a defenceman for the Rangers),
> and surprising contributions from both their Old (Ovie looks ancient and
> took a loooong time to get going, but did so in the end, Oshie chipped
> in with some timely goals, Carlson was solid) and New Guard (they have
> some really good development going on over in Hershey, the Bears are the
> best team in the AHL).
> All courtesy of rookie coach Spencer Carbery, the best hire the Caps
> could have made, and good on them for getting off the usual NHL coaches
> merry-go-round.
>
> Of course, the other teams in the Metro Division (Pittsburgh, New
> Jersey, Philadelphia) shitting the bed also helped.
>
> New York Rangers in 5.

Actually a sweep. Washington never really got out of 'just happy to be
there' mode. Ovechkin with just five shots in those four games, and no
goals. A mean-spirited person would say it's because they wouldn't have
counted towards the record.

Only the sixth time that a President's Trophy winner has swept the first
playoff series. Four of the five previous teams that did that (including
the Rangers themselves in 1993-94) then went on to win the Stanley Cup.
To be honest, my money would still not be on them though, there are two
or three teams left which I think are stronger.

> Hurricanes (M2) vs Islanders (M3)
>
> A repeat of last year's First Round match-up, and the Islanders, like
> Washington, are a team that are here mostly not due to own merit, but
> because their division rivals have been bad. I'll give them this though
> - after having changed coaches from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy they
> have become much less tedious to watch, even if only for Roy's
> propensity to pull the goalie ten minutes before the end of a game.
>
> But there's much more to like about Carolina, not the least of which the
> way they handled the Trade Deadline, calmly identifying needs and then
> addressing them - e.g. getting Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh was an
> inspired move, and Guentzel also very quickly silenced those critics who
> questioned if he could put up numbers without Crosby at his side.
>
> The only reason they didn't win their division (or indeed, the
> Presidents' Trophy) was that they somewhat bungled their goaltender
> situation, but that issue looks resolved now that Frederik Andersen has
> returned from his health scare (a blood clotting issue) and been
> amazing. I'll spill the beans and admit that in my playoff bracket I
> have Carolina going very far.
>
> Last years the Canes won in 6, this time I expect them to make even
> shorter work of it.
>
> Carolina in 5.

Check!
The Isles were actually better than I made them out to be (and Carolina
worse), so they at least deserved not being swept. The Canes definitely
need to improve for the next round against the Rangers, but I think they
will be able to do so.

> Western Conference
>
>
> Stars (C1) vs Golden Knights (WC2)
>
> So Dallas have done practically everything right, built a great roster,
> won the Western Conference, missed out on the Presidents' Trophy by a
> point, and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup
> with the reigning Stanley Cup champions. A slew of injuries halfway
> through the season has given Vegas an (ultimately not very serious)
> scare about missing the playoffs, but lo and behold! Miraculously all
> their LTIR players (Eichel, Hertl, Stone) are back on the ice just
> before the start of the playoffs, fully Salary Cap-compliant, and none
> the worse for wear.
>
> My sympathies are definitely with Dallas in this one, but this is the
> tie where I've flip-flopped around a couple of times in my prediction
> bracket, with repercussions all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals which
> both teams could reach.
>
> Vegas in 7. But it could just as easily be the other way around.

And we have a Game 7. Mark Stone came out of LTIR and immediately made
an impact, but the Stars did well to fight back from being 0-2 down in
the series.

So far, both teams have won two matches away and one at home. Doesn't
bode too well for Dallas who will host Game 7.

> Jets (C2) v Avalanche (C3)
>
> So Winnipeg have done practically everything right - when everyone
> expected a rebuild or worse, instead during the off-season they re-
> signed Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck to long-term contracts,
> shipped out deadweight like Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois (for
> whom they got a great return), played their best regular season in ages,
> and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup with a
> Nathan MacKinnon-powered Avalanche side that has gone full out this year
> at the Trade Deadline.
>
> But while Colorado in some matches look like a machine that can
> streamroll anyone, on other occasions they have looked fragile, most
> of all in goal where Alexandar Georgiev has collected the most wins
> in the league with a sub-.900 saving percentage.
>
> But as the Avalanche have shown in the past - if you're good enough up
> front you don't really need stellar goaltending to go all the way (they
> won the Cup with Darcy Kuemper), and if MacKinnon manages to turn it on,
> he's nigh unplayable.
>
> So, with a somewhat heavy heart, I pick Colorado in 6.

Werner Pichler wrote:

> And now I quickly need to brag a bit before the randomness of Game 7s
> knocks me down from 7/8 correct series winners to 5/8.

Warm weather theory not too hot, to say the truth

Werner Pichler <wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 20.04.2024 23:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>
>> Bruins (A2) vs Maple Leafs (A3)
>>
>> 'It was 4-1!'
>>
>> This will be interesting. On paper, both teams should be worse than last
>> season, with Boston still feeling the loss of Bergeron and Krejčí, and
>> Toronto still not having addressed any of their problem areas (defence,
>> goaltending, overreliance on their Core 4). Having finally overcome the
>> seemingly insurmountable First Round hurdle last year might give the
>> Leafs an extra edge, but old habits die hard.
>>
>> Boston in 7.
>
> And we have a Game 7, starting in a couple of hours.

Death, taxes, and…

Ciao,
Werner

On 20.04.2024 23:25, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On 17.04.2023 00:10, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> I've watched quite a lot of NHL this season, much more than usual, so
>> I'll jot down my
>> thoughts here, too, because I'm kind of curious how the impressions
>> that I've formed
>> so far will hold up in the play-offs.
>>
>> I fully expect >50% of these predictions to blow up in my face.
>
>
> I'll give it a go again this year.

6/8. Not bad, but helped by the fact that there were no real upsets.
All four division winners made it through to Round 2, and Colorado
were the only lower seed to qualify.

> Western Conference
>
>
> Stars (C1) vs Golden Knights (WC2)
>
> So Dallas have done practically everything right, built a great roster,
> won the Western Conference, missed out on the Presidents' Trophy by a
> point, and what they get for their troubles is a First Round matchup
> with the reigning Stanley Cup champions. A slew of injuries halfway
> through the season has given Vegas an (ultimately not very serious)
> scare about missing the playoffs, but lo and behold! Miraculously all
> their LTIR players (Eichel, Hertl, Stone) are back on the ice just
> before the start of the playoffs, fully Salary Cap-compliant, and none
> the worse for wear.
>
> My sympathies are definitely with Dallas in this one, but this is the
> tie where I've flip-flopped around a couple of times in my prediction
> bracket, with repercussions all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals which
> both teams could reach.
>
> Vegas in 7. But it could just as easily be the other way around.

Happy to be wrong! Or not, because it actually could just as easily have
been the other way around.

Due to NHL's scheduling the first match between Rangers and Canes
actually took place before the above series ended, but despite one
game already out of the way, here are my prediction for Round 2.

Panthers (A1) vs Bruins (A2)

The Bruins would certainly love to take revenge for last year's painful
elimination - but I've said it before, I don't see either Bruins or
Leafs posing a real threat to a Florida team without any real
weaknesses.

Florida in 5.

Rangers (M1) vs Hurricanes (M2)

Rangers won the first match at home on the back of their strength with
the man advantage, and I suppose most of the games in this series will
be as close as that one.

Carolina in 7.

Stars (C1) v Avalanche (C3)

Another very even series. I'll pick the Avs simply because Dallas had to
spend so much more energy in the first round.

Colorado in 6.

Canucks (P1) v Oilers (P2)

So at least one (but only one) Canadian team will reach the Conference
Finals. Oilers looked good against LA while the Canucks showed great
resilience against the Preds but also rode their luck a bit.

I don't believe either team will have a chance in the Western Conference
Finals, or perhaps only if Dallas and Colorado grind each other down to
pieces.

Oilers in 6.

Ciao,
Werner

On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:

I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.

Jesper Lauridsen <rorschak@stofanet.dk> wrote:
> On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
> I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.
>

I’m in Prague right now, but I couldn’t say.
Haven’t seen a thing.

Ciao,
Werner

Werner Pichler <no_email@invalid.invalid> wrote:
> Jesper Lauridsen <rorschak@stofanet.dk> wrote:
>> On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>
>> I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.
>>
>
> I’m in Prague right now, but I couldn’t say.
> Haven’t seen a thing.

No wait, I think I caught a glimpse of something…

Ciao,
Werner

Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>Werner Pichler <no_email@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>> Jesper Lauridsen <rorschak@stofanet.dk> wrote:
>>> On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>>
>>> I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.
>>>
>>
>> I’m in Prague right now, but I couldn’t say.
>> Haven’t seen a thing.
>
>No wait, I think I caught a glimpse of something…

Did you look to your 6?

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

On 15.05.2024 19:03, anders t wrote:
> Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>> Werner Pichler <no_email@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>>> Jesper Lauridsen <rorschak@stofanet.dk> wrote:
>>>> On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>>>
>>>> I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I’m in Prague right now, but I couldn’t say.
>>> Haven’t seen a thing.
>>
>> No wait, I think I caught a glimpse of something…
>
> Did you look to your 6?

It took me until the last second, but now I'm indeed very sure that I
actually perceived something.

Ciao,
Werner

Werner Pichler <wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Hurricanes (M2) vs Islanders (M3)
>
> A repeat of last year's First Round match-up, and the Islanders, like
> Washington, are a team that are here mostly not due to own merit, but
> because their division rivals have been bad. I'll give them this though
> - after having changed coaches from Lane Lambert to Patrick Roy they
> have become much less tedious to watch, even if only for Roy's
> propensity to pull the goalie ten minutes before the end of a game.
>
> But there's much more to like about Carolina, not the least of which the
> way they handled the Trade Deadline, calmly identifying needs and then
> addressing them - e.g. getting Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh was an
> inspired move, and Guentzel also very quickly silenced those critics who
> questioned if he could put up numbers without Crosby at his side.
>
> The only reason they didn't win their division (or indeed, the
> Presidents' Trophy) was that they somewhat bungled their goaltender
> situation, but that issue looks resolved now that Frederik Andersen has
> returned from his health scare (a blood clotting issue) and been
> amazing. I'll spill the beans and admit that in my playoff bracket I
> have Carolina going very far.

*throwsbracketinthebin*

Ciao,
Werner

On 2024-05-16, Werner Pichler <wpichler@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 15.05.2024 19:03, anders t wrote:
>> Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>>> Werner Pichler <no_email@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>>>> Jesper Lauridsen <rorschak@stofanet.dk> wrote:
>>>>> On 06/05/2024 21.26, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I hear there's also a World Championship going on at the moment.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I’m in Prague right now, but I couldn’t say.
>>>> Haven’t seen a thing.
>>>
>>> No wait, I think I caught a glimpse of something…
>>
>> Did you look to your 6?
>
> It took me until the last second, but now I'm indeed very sure that I
> actually perceived something.

How does Austria's performances make any sense?