from
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/asia/north-korea-submarine-intl/index.html

North Korea says it launched new ‘tactical nuclear attack’ submarine.
South Korea doubts it works
Brad Lendon Hamdi Alkhshali
By Brad Lendon and Hamdi Alkhshali, CNN
Updated 3:37 AM EDT, Fri September 8, 2023

People attend what North Korean state media said was a launch ceremony
for a new tactical nuclear attack submarine, in a handout image released
on September 8, 2023.
People attend what North Korean state media said was a launch ceremony
for a new tactical nuclear attack submarine, in a handout image released
on September 8, 2023.
KCNA/Reuters
Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—
North Korea claims to have launched a new “Korean-style” tactical
nuclear attack submarine that it says heralds “the beginning of a new
chapter” for its navy. But analysts say those claims should be taken
with a large pinch of salt, with South Korean authorities doubting the
vessel even works properly.

The submarine, named “Hero Kim Kun Ok,” was launched to much fanfare at
a ceremony attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday,
according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The agency quoted Kim as saying the vessel was “equipped with a large
number of nuclear delivery means” and capable of “preemptive and
retaliatory strikes against hostile countries,” and said he had called
on the country to convert all of its medium-sized subs into
nuclear-capable versions.

But South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staffs (JCS) poured scorn on those
claims in a statement on Friday, saying the new sub appears “not capable
of normal operation,” and warned there were signs North Korea was trying
to exaggerate its capabilities.

The reports about the sub come after North Korea last weekend claimed to
have simulated a nuclear missile attack to warn the United States of
“nuclear war danger.”

Meanwhile, US experts have also expressed doubts over the new submarine,
both over the potency of its missiles and whether North Korea would be
able to build more than one such vessel.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends what state media report was a
launching ceremony for a new tactical nuclear attack submarine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends what state media report was a
launching ceremony for a new tactical nuclear attack submarine.
KCNA/Reuters
What’s ‘nuclear’ about it?
US analysts believe the submarine, which was first revealed to be under
construction four years ago, is conventionally powered but possibly
capable of launching ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.

Submarine expert H I Sutton, writing on the Naval News website, said the
new vessel appears to be based on the old Soviet-designed Romeo-class
submarines. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, North Korea
already has 20 Romeo-class subs in its fleet of an estimated 64 to 86
submarines.

The latest sub appears to have 10 missile launch tubes in a compartment
attached to its sail, Sutton noted, adding that, “Given the Hermit
Kingdom’s investment in ballistic missiles, it is likely that these are
nuclear capable.”

North Korea has test-fired submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)
nine times since 2015, most recently in 2022, according to the James
Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) North Korea Missile
Test Database.

North Korea's state media release images of its submarine-launched
ballistic missile (October 2021)
02:50 - Source: CNN
However, other analysts said it remained unclear whether the new sub was
capable of launching SLBMs.

Others were even more skeptical. Carl Schuster, a retired US Navy
captain and former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s
Joint Intelligence Center, said the newly launched sub was probably two
years away from being fully operational. He said installing and testing
the sub’s internal machinery and components would take around 18 months,
then there would be up to six months of sea trials and training.

And even if and when the sub does become fully operational, there are
some who doubt the effectiveness of Pyongyang’s submarine-launched missiles.

Vann Van Diepen, a former US government official working on weapons of
mass destruction issues, wrote on the 38 North website in July that
ballistic missile subs had taken a back seat to land-mobile ballistic
missiles in Pyongyang’s forces and were unlikely to be “a consequential
and credible leg” of its nuclear forces anytime soon.

“Pyongyang’s land-based missiles, which are much more survivable and
cost-effective than a (ballistic missile submarine) force, are highly
likely to remain the mainstay of its nuclear and missile forces,” he wrote.

Sending a message
While analysts believe the sub launched on Wednesday is conventionally
powered, Kim has said previously that he wants his country to produce
nuclear-powered vessels in the future.

He reiterated that call in his speech Wednesday, saying it was
“necessary to give greater impetus to the construction of
nuclear-powered submarines to strengthen and develop our navy into a
military force of a world-class maritime power,” according to KCNA.

Irrespective of its power source, Schuster said Wednesday’s launch
enabled Kim to “send a deterrent message” to adversaries like the US and
Japan.

“He is signaling that his nuclear program is progressing and that he can
soon conduct strikes from multiple directions,” Schuster said.

All US Navy submarines, both of the attack and ballistic missile
varieties, are nuclear powered. Russia, China, Britain, France and India
also operate nuclear-powered subs.

Here's what Kim may be trying to get from Putin in exchange for munitions
03:16 - Source: CNN
The launch of the sub and North Korea’s claim to have simulated a
nuclear missile attack last weekend come as Pyongyang prepares to
celebrate the 75th anniversary of the country’s founding on September 9.

The events also come amid signs that Pyongyang has been rattled by
increasing cooperation between the United States and South Korea.

At the end of August the two countries held joint military live-fire
exercises simulating a counterattack against invading forces. And
following a May summit meeting in Seoul the US and South Korean
presidents pledged to step up military cooperation. That pledge followed
more than a dozen missiles tests by North Korea this year – a big
increase on the eight it carried out in 2021 and the four in 2020.

CNN’s Yoonjung Seo contributed to this report.

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