A tail wagging a dog? And because Estonia did not leave the former USSR with the correct procedure?

"Only a "ruined" Russia can ensure peace on NATO's eastern flank in the near future, a senior European defense official has said, as Kyiv's Western allies look to recalibrate their wartime strategy after a disappointing 2023.

"Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost, that they will lose the next war," Kusti Salm—the permanent secretary at the Estonian Defense Ministry—told Newsweek in an exclusive interview from Tallinn.

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears set on trying to stare down and outlast his Western enemies, an approach successful for the Kremlin in Ukraine in 2014, in its intervention in Syria, and in its invasion of Georgia in 2008.

The Russian leader, Salm said, must end his gamble in Ukraine knowing "that economically they are ruined, we outlasted them, we kept our industry on a better footing, we have the technological advantage, we have better training, better morale; that they don't stand a chance.""

ltlee1, <news:134fa3d3-eb8a-4b39-a81f-f8249819e49bn@googlegroups.com>

> "Only a "ruined" Russia can ensure peace on NATO's eastern flank in
> the near future, a senior European defense official has said, as
> Kyiv's Western allies look to recalibrate their wartime strategy
> after a disappointing 2023.
>
> "Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost,
> that they will lose the next war," Kusti Salm-the permanent secretary
> at the Estonian Defense Ministry-told Newsweek in an exclusive
> interview from Tallinn.

For the Baltic governments, also Poland, the aggressive and
bold anti-Russia stance is a way to increase their role/status
within the Atlanticist hierarchy. More attention from the US,
and also an opportunity to obtain more Atlanticist money under
the pretext of "countering" Russia. So their politicians seek
to show themselves off like "little but very stinky" (while
business people there have pretty strong links to Russia btw).

Poland isn't little, but their political class keeps an old
complex in front of Germanic "true" Europe and shows symptoms
similar to the Baltics' ones. Other East European countries
are more balanced, but, for their governments, the prospect to
get certain benefits through antagonism with Russia also can
make some sense (then they would have to compete with Poland
and Baltics for American attention and money). And without the
basic contradiction between the Atlanticism and Russia, the
whole East Europe would be much less important.

What's driving "the true West". I see it so that after the end
of the USSR, the Atlanticism set itself a mode that requires
"expansion drug". It needs to interfere somewhere militarily
and/or expand its hegemony somewhere. This external mode helps
maintain internal modes within the US and West Europe. Recent
attempts at self-satisfaction (Afghanistan, Syria) were not so
successful, and the Ukraine case gives them one more chance.

On Friday, December 29, 2023 at 10:03:49 PM UTC, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> ltlee1, <news:134fa3d3-eb8a-4b39...@googlegroups.com>
> > "Only a "ruined" Russia can ensure peace on NATO's eastern flank in
> > the near future, a senior European defense official has said, as
> > Kyiv's Western allies look to recalibrate their wartime strategy
> > after a disappointing 2023.
> >
> > "Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost,
> > that they will lose the next war," Kusti Salm-the permanent secretary
> > at the Estonian Defense Ministry-told Newsweek in an exclusive
> > interview from Tallinn.
>
> For the Baltic governments, also Poland, the aggressive and
> bold anti-Russia stance is a way to increase their role/status
> within the Atlanticist hierarchy. More attention from the US,
> and also an opportunity to obtain more Atlanticist money under
> the pretext of "countering" Russia. So their politicians seek
> to show themselves off like "little but very stinky" (while
> business people there have pretty strong links to Russia btw).
>
> Poland isn't little, but their political class keeps an old
> complex in front of Germanic "true" Europe and shows symptoms
> similar to the Baltics' ones. Other East European countries
> are more balanced, but, for their governments, the prospect to
> get certain benefits through antagonism with Russia also can
> make some sense (then they would have to compete with Poland
> and Baltics for American attention and money). And without the
> basic contradiction between the Atlanticism and Russia, the
> whole East Europe would be much less important.
>
> What's driving "the true West". I see it so that after the end
> of the USSR, the Atlanticism set itself a mode that requires
> "expansion drug". It needs to interfere somewhere militarily
> and/or expand its hegemony somewhere. This external mode helps
> maintain internal modes within the US and West Europe. Recent
> attempts at self-satisfaction (Afghanistan, Syria) were not so
> successful, and the Ukraine case gives them one more chance.

One other question is who are the targeted audience. With a population of
1.365 million, of which 22% are Russians. Overall, Estonia has much higher
per capita GDP than Ukraine. However, if Russians are discriminated, some
of them may want to join Russia.

One general principle, "the true West" chooses to forget is that bilateral border
must be bilaterally determined. UN membership confers independence. But UN
cannot dictate issues concerning bilateral borders.

On Friday, December 29, 2023 at 2:16:53 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> A tail wagging a dog? And because Estonia did not leave the former USSR with the correct procedure?
>
> "Only a "ruined" Russia can ensure peace on NATO's eastern flank in the near future, a senior European defense official has said, as Kyiv's Western allies look to recalibrate their wartime strategy after a disappointing 2023.
>
> "Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost, that they will lose the next war," Kusti Salm—the permanent secretary at the Estonian Defense Ministry—told Newsweek in an exclusive interview from Tallinn.
>
> Russian President Vladimir Putin appears set on trying to stare down and outlast his Western enemies, an approach successful for the Kremlin in Ukraine in 2014, in its intervention in Syria, and in its invasion of Georgia in 2008.
>
> The Russian leader, Salm said, must end his gamble in Ukraine knowing "that economically they are ruined, we outlasted them, we kept our industry on a better footing, we have the technological advantage, we have better training, better morale; that they don't stand a chance.""

At present, Russia does not appear will walk away with the understanding that they lost.
Au contraire, Ukraine is clearly losing and it was suggested that Zelensky needs to go before Ukraine collapses.

"There is an emerging consensus in the Biden administration that Ukraine is barely hanging on in its war with
Russia and that some sort of negotiated settlement will be needed.

While this is portrayed as the “long held” policy of President Biden, the truth is it is just the reverse: It has been
the Biden administration that has blocked all attempts to broker a peace deal with Russia.

Biden and company have embraced Zelensky for the same reason: Zelensky, who more than a year ago was open
to a deal with the Russians, fell into line with Biden’s national security team and even got the Verkhovna Rada,
Ukraine’s parliament, to pass a law making it unlawful for him to deal with the Russians while the war was going on.

The United States and its NATO allies have poured massive amounts of military hardware and ammunition into Ukraine,
have provided the backbone for Ukrainian strategic intelligence, trained Ukrainian troops, and have put advisers in the
field, some of whom have been killed in action. If the reports are true about the Russian Iskander strike on Kherson on
December 27th, four UK Patriot operators were killed along with 60 other soldiers and police when Russian rockets
slammed into the Kherson train depot.

On the battlefield the Ukrainian army is facing defeats. ...

On the political front cracks are getting wider. Ylulia Timoshenko served as Ukraine’s prime minister two times and is now
a serving member in Ukraine’s Parliament under the banner of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) political party. She is a
supporter of Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO. Timoshenko says that the country is at a dead end and is facing defeat.

Politicians who say such things in Ukraine most often are arrested or exiled or, as in the case of former Ukrainian President
Petro Poroshenko, are stopped at the border by Ukraine’s secret service. Even worse happens if they cross Zelensky. Treason
charges have recently been brought against politician Oleksandr Dubinsky, and he is not alone.
....
If Washington really wants a political deal, Zelensky can’t negotiate it. He will have to go.

Washington may decide the only way out is a coup d’état in Ukraine, replacing Zelensky with either a political or military leader
willing to sit down with the Russians."

https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/zelensky-needs-to-go-before-ukraine-collapses/