"As a public service, therefore (and maybe to inspire them a little), here are my top five big questions about China. The answers to these questions would tell you a lot about how worried you should be.

No. 1: Is China’s economic future bright, dark, or somewhere in between?

Power in international politics ultimately rests upon economics. You can talk all you want about “soft power,” the genius of individual leaders, the importance of “national character,” the role of chance, and much more, but the bottom line is that a country’s ability to defend itself and shape its broader environment ultimately depends on its economic strength. You need a large population to be a great power, but you also need substantial wealth and a diverse and sophisticated economy.
....
No. 2: Will U.S. export controls work?

How you answer the first question depends in part on whether you think the Biden administration’s economic war against China will be successful. By denying China access to advanced semiconductors (and related technologies), the United States is hoping to retain technological supremacy in this important sector. Although U.S. officials insist that these measures are limited to narrow national security concerns (what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan characterized as a “small yard and high fence”), the real aim seems to be to slow China’s technological advance more broadly.
....
No. 3: Is Xi Jinping another Mao Zedong or another Lee Kuan Yew?

China’s rapid rise began under its post-Mao “collective leadership,” even if Deng Xiaoping was “first among equals” in the Chinese Communist Party hierarchy. Today, however, Xi has concentrated power to an extent unseen since Mao himself and cultivated a Mao-like cult of personality in which his thoughts are considered infallible and his decisions cannot be questioned.

Letting one person have unchecked power in a country is usually a recipe for disaster. No human being is infallible, ...

No. 4: Will Asia balance effectively?

One of Xi’s major failures was not doing more to discourage China’s neighbors from joining forces to keep Beijing in check.
....
No. 5: What will the rest of the world do?

The final issue isn’t about China, per se; it’s about how the rest of the world is responding. "
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/07/china-rise-geopolitics-great-power-scared/