https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
> China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
> Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023

In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
invasion IMHO.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Luck can't last a lifetime, unless you die young. (Russell Banks)

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
> > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
> > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
>
> In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
> invasion IMHO.
>
Whatever.
The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
>> > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
>> > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
>>
>> In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
>> invasion IMHO.
>
> Whatever.
> The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
> find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
> Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.

Nothing is too hard for Xi. President for life is the best.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| Since a politician never believes what he says, he is surprised when
| others believe him. (Charles DeGaulle)

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 9:38:29 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> >> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
> >> > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
> >> > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
> >>
> >> In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
> >> invasion IMHO.
> >
> > Whatever.
> > The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
> > find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
> > Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.

> Nothing is too hard for Xi. President for life is the best.

Don't know what you mean by describing Xi as President for life?
Can you really see the future?
Or are you arrogating yourself above all Chinese people such that your
say so will eventually turned true no matter how the Chinese think?

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 9:38:29 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> ltlee1 wrote:
>> > On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
>> >> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
>> >> > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
>> >> > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
>> >>
>> >> In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
>> >> invasion IMHO.
>> >
>> > Whatever.
>> > The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
>> > find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
>> > Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.
>
>> Nothing is too hard for Xi. President for life is the best.
>
> Don't know what you mean by describing Xi as President for life?
> Can you really see the future?

Formally President Xi is "president for lifer" more than even Putin [A][B].
Putin "resets" the limits. Formally you are right. Practice "may be"
different. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
You are hoping. I am preparing for Chinese Lukashenko [C]

> Or are you arrogating yourself above all Chinese people such that your
> say so will eventually turned true no matter how the Chinese think?

For me it merely not learning on USA mistakes/fixes. USA introduced
(formal constitutional) limit on number of USA president terms
*after four terms* of president Franklin Delano Roosevelt (D).
FDR was a great president, wasn't he? But somehow once was enough.
It is about mechanism of using power to stay in power, using *too much*.

<irony> I am ready to praise dynasty of Red Emperor Xi. </irony>

[A] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
> removal of term limits for the presidency in 2018
[B] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin
> (born 7 October 1952) […]
> He was reelected in 2004. Because he was constitutionally limited to
> two consecutive terms as president, Putin served as prime minister
> again from 2008 to 2012 under Dmitry Medvedev. He returned to the
> presidency in 2012, […] was reelected in 2018. In April 2021, after a
> referendum, he signed into law constitutional amendments including one
> that would allow him to run for reelection twice more, potentially
> extending his presidency to 2036.[8][9]
[C] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| My advice to you, my violent friend, is to seek out gold and sit on
| it. (The Dragon to Grendel, in John Gardner's "Grendel")

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 3:21:19 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> > https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
> > > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
> > > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
> >
> > In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
> > invasion IMHO.
> >
> Whatever.
> The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
> find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
> Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.

Nevertheless, the chick rib situation does provide an opportunity and China
is the best possible middle man .

ROC Chinatimes Editorial:
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20230322005532-262102?chdtv

"大陸國家主席習近平與俄羅斯總統普丁在克里姆林宮的會談，展現了兩國團結的夥伴關係與兩人親切的私人情誼。習近平有調停俄烏戰爭之意，普丁稱許習近平「對於國際局勢抱持考慮周全的態度」，表示已經看過中方提出的烏克蘭解決方案，會予以討論。習近平接著可能與烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基通話，為結束這場戰爭創造機會。

結盟抗美非北京首選

習近平促和中東宿怨伊沙兩國，讓西方國家吃驚，俄烏戰爭屆滿一周年當天，北京發表《關於政治解決烏克蘭危機的中國立場》12點主張，西方領袖普遍批評，認為缺乏具體方案，習近平訪俄又頻頻唱衰，甚至認為中方提出方案，只是為習近平訪俄製造中立假象。華府不斷指稱中國有支持俄國武器的計畫，但拿不出證據，白宮發言人柯比稱停火是「認可俄羅斯的征服」。國際刑事法院正式指控普丁的戰爭罪行，發布逮捕令，無異於給習近平難看，讓人產生習近平與戰爭凶手站在一起的印象。

美國不斷強調中國「反美親俄」，在俄烏兩造間不會保持中立，但這不是事實。中國確實不再對美中關係抱希望，習近平6日在全國政協一場委員會議的講話，罕見指名道姓地批評美國，指中國「發展的外部環境急劇變化，不確定、難預料因素顯著增多，尤其是以美國為首的西方國家對中國實施了全方位的遏制、圍堵、打壓，給我國發展帶來前所未有的嚴峻挑戰」。美方據此認定中俄關係將更加密切，習近平此行是去深化雙邊結盟關係，中方沒有資格做調人。

中俄關係友好、反美立場一致，的確很容易讓人推測，中方支持俄羅斯取得對烏戰爭的最後勝利。但這是過去冷戰二極對立下大三角戰略的慣性思維，對於反對打新冷戰的北京而言，未必如此。北京最在意的是周邊安全，而非與西方間的集團對抗，中俄結盟抗美不是北京的首要戰略，北京的首選是以多極格局建構有利和平發展的外部環境。

對北京而言，固然不樂見俄羅斯崩潰裂解，但更不願見一個衰敗虛弱，只能仰仗美國鼻息的歐洲，兩者都不符合北京的戰略利益。北京不想弱化歐洲，更不想失去歐洲。歐洲是中國第二大貿易夥伴，也是中國先進技術的來源之一。北京絕對會在俄烏之間保持中立，以免落入美國的口實，對中歐長期關係的維持不利。

俄烏雙方都信任中國

拜登政府不樂見中方調停和解談判，但現實上無法阻止中方在未來停火或停戰協議的討論與簽署中，可能扮演的角色，甚至未來烏克蘭的安全保障乃至俄羅斯所追求的安全空間，都可能有北京的影子。更不用說戰後重建，北京有舉足輕重的地位，烏克蘭十分清楚這一點，所以烏克蘭不願對北京惡言相向，希望保持雙邊溝通管道的暢通。日前烏克蘭外長庫列巴與大陸外交部長秦剛通話後表示，烏克蘭不認為北京有意武裝俄羅斯。澤倫斯基也與習近平約定，在習近平返回北京後通話。

拜登政府雖然不願停火，但國際輿論與美國民意開始改變風向。不只歐美大城市出現反戰示威，一些學者也表達反戰的立場，德國哲學家哈伯瑪斯日前發文，指西方的目標若訂在支持烏克蘭贏得戰爭，將會是一場步向深淵的夢遊，衝突將不斷擴大、加劇，德國將會深陷其中，如果目標放在阻止俄羅斯獲勝，則風險較小，因為這會在談判過程中提供更多妥協的機會。

美國明確表態不願烏克蘭停火情況下，習近平達成俄烏和談的使命難度極高，但一年多的苦戰，交戰雙方及涉入國家已顯疲態，持盈保泰的中方此時介入，對戰後國際安排與重建會有一定的影響力。中國已成為唯一夠分量，且能取得俄烏雙方信任的大國，北京在這時間點出手，也許不會立即有具體的成果，但至少已為世界帶來和平的希望。"

On Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 7:15:02 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 3:21:19 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:43:55 PM UTC, A. Filip wrote:
> > > https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
> > > > China’s Xi arrives in Moscow for first visit since Russia invaded
> > > > Ukraine ; Updated 7:02 AM EDT, Mon March 20, 2023
> > >
> > > In practices the timing makes it a "slightly" reluctant support for the
> > > invasion IMHO.
> > >
> > Whatever.
> > The three active players are facing a "chicken rib" situation. Xi is trying to
> > find a face-saving out for them. The world will also welcome peace. But
> > Xi certainly has a difficult job cut out for him.
> Nevertheless, the chick rib situation does provide an opportunity and China
> is the best possible middle man .
> ROC Chinatimes Editorial:
> https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20230322005532-262102?chdtv
> "大陸國家主席習近平與俄羅斯總統普丁在克里姆林宮的會談，展現了兩國團結的夥伴關係與兩人親切的私人情誼。習近平有調停俄烏戰爭之意，普丁稱許習近平「對於國際局勢抱持考慮周全的態度」，表示已經看過中方提出的烏克蘭解決方案，會予以討論。習近平接著可能與烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基通話，為結束這場戰爭創造機會。
> 結盟抗美非北京首選
> 習近平促和中東宿怨伊沙兩國，讓西方國家吃驚，俄烏戰爭屆滿一周年當天，北京發表《關於政治解決烏克蘭危機的中國立場》12點主張，西方領袖普遍批評，認為缺乏具體方案，習近平訪俄又頻頻唱衰，甚至認為中方提出方案，只是為習近平訪俄製造中立假象。華府不斷指稱中國有支持俄國武器的計畫，但拿不出證據，白宮發言人柯比稱停火是「認可俄羅斯的征服」。國際刑事法院正式指控普丁的戰爭罪行，發布逮捕令，無異於給習近平難看，讓人產生習近平與戰爭凶手站在一起的印象。
> 美國不斷強調中國「反美親俄」，在俄烏兩造間不會保持中立，但這不是事實。中國確實不再對美中關係抱希望，習近平6日在全國政協一場委員會議的講話，罕見指名道姓地批評美國，指中國「發展的外部環境急劇變化，不確定、難預料因素顯著增多，尤其是以美國為首的西方國家對中國實施了全方位的遏制、圍堵、打壓，給我國發展帶來前所未有的嚴峻挑戰」。美方據此認定中俄關係將更加密切，習近平此行是去深化雙邊結盟關係，中方沒有資格做調人。
> 中俄關係友好、反美立場一致，的確很容易讓人推測，中方支持俄羅斯取得對烏戰爭的最後勝利。但這是過去冷戰二極對立下大三角戰略的慣性思維，對於反對打新冷戰的北京而言，未必如此。北京最在意的是周邊安全，而非與西方間的集團對抗，中俄結盟抗美不是北京的首要戰略，北京的首選是以多極格局建構有利和平發展的外部環境。
> 對北京而言，固然不樂見俄羅斯崩潰裂解，但更不願見一個衰敗虛弱，只能仰仗美國鼻息的歐洲，兩者都不符合北京的戰略利益。北京不想弱化歐洲，更不想失去歐洲。歐洲是中國第二大貿易夥伴，也是中國先進技術的來源之一。北京絕對會在俄烏之間保持中立，以免落入美國的口實，對中歐長期關係的維持不利。
> 俄烏雙方都信任中國
> 拜登政府不樂見中方調停和解談判，但現實上無法阻止中方在未來停火或停戰協議的討論與簽署中，可能扮演的角色，甚至未來烏克蘭的安全保障乃至俄羅斯所追求的安全空間，都可能有北京的影子。更不用說戰後重建，北京有舉足輕重的地位，烏克蘭十分清楚這一點，所以烏克蘭不願對北京惡言相向，希望保持雙邊溝通管道的暢通。日前烏克蘭外長庫列巴與大陸外交部長秦剛通話後表示，烏克蘭不認為北京有意武裝俄羅斯。澤倫斯基也與習近平約定，在習近平返回北京後通話。
> 拜登政府雖然不願停火，但國際輿論與美國民意開始改變風向。不只歐美大城市出現反戰示威，一些學者也表達反戰的立場，德國哲學家哈伯瑪斯日前發文，指西方的目標若訂在支持烏克蘭贏得戰爭，將會是一場步向深淵的夢遊，衝突將不斷擴大、加劇，德國將會深陷其中，如果目標放在阻止俄羅斯獲勝，則風險較小，因為這會在談判過程中提供更多妥協的機會。
> 美國明確表態不願烏克蘭停火情況下，習近平達成俄烏和談的使命難度極高，但一年多的苦戰，交戰雙方及涉入國家已顯疲態，持盈保泰的中方此時介入，對戰後國際安排與重建會有一定的影響力。中國已成為唯一夠分量，且能取得俄烏雙方信任的大國，北京在這時間點出手，也許不會立即有具體的成果，但至少已為世界帶來和平的希望。"

https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/why-ukraine-may-embrace-chinas-peace-plan/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why Ukraine may embrace China’s peace plan
Recent private conference of top US foreign policy experts saw Ukraine at risk of losing a war of attrition despite West’s best efforts
by Spengler
"A gloomy assessment of Ukraine’s prospects for victory against Russia emerged from a recent
private gathering of former top US soldiers, intelligence officials and scholars with resumes
reaching from the Reagan to the Trump administrations.
Short of trained personnel and ammunition, one speaker argued, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr
Zelensky might consider a Chinese peace plan, especially after Beijing’s successful mediation of
the Iran-Saudi dispute.
The several dozen attendees, many of whom had held cabinet or sub-cabinet positions, met under
Chatham House rules, which forbid identification of individual participants but allow the content
itself to be presented.
Overwhelmingly, the sentiment of participants leaned towards escalation in the form of providing
additional weapons to Ukraine. One prominent analyst proposed the formation of a “foreign legion”
of fighters from other countries to supplement Ukraine’s shrinking pool of trained manpower.
The great majority of participants favored risking everything for absolute victory over Russia. None
of the attendees mentioned the qualms that former president Donald Trump voiced on May 17
about the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine.
...
The prospects for a breakthrough to end the stalemate along the Line of Contact are poor, the rapporteur
continued. The expected Ukrainian Spring offensive is one of the most anticipated maneuvers in military
history, and Russia has had plenty of time to prepare defensive positions. Ukraine would need 650
modern main battle tanks and 1,000 armed personnel carriers to make a difference, in the view of one
expert.
...
A foreign policy analyst who has advised the US Defense Department noted that Putin can call up 1.7
million reserves if he has to. “It may be fun to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea or to destroy targets
inside Russia,” he said, “But it doesn’t relieve pressure on Ukraine. It’s like the American Civil War. The
South fought more effectively, but the North had an overwhelming advantage in manpower and munitions.
By 1865, the South didn’t have enough soldiers to defend Richmond.” He proposed an international army
of volunteers to fight for Ukraine.
...
I am at liberty to report what I told the group. The Ukraine war has set in motion a global realignment,
including the China-Iran-Saudi agreement. Looking at America’s blunders in Ukraine, the Saudis have
concluded that America won’t put boots on the ground in the Middle East and are looking for other friends.
Turkey has flourished as a trade intermediary between China and Russia, and has patched up relations
with the Gulf States as well as Israel. India, supposedly an ally against China, has become Russia’s biggest
customer for oil and has vastly expanded its trade with China, which now provides 30% of its non-oil imports.
The United States is losing influence catastrophically by underestimating Russia. It doesn’t have the
industrial capacity to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The best policy is an immediate ceasefire, I
argued."
...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

ltlee1 <ltlee1@hotmail.com> wrote:
> […]
> https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/why-ukraine-may-embrace-chinas-peace-plan/
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Why Ukraine may embrace China’s peace plan
> Recent private conference of top US foreign policy experts saw Ukraine
> at risk of losing a war of attrition despite West’s best efforts by
> Spengler
>
> "A gloomy assessment of Ukraine’s prospects for victory against Russia
> emerged from a recent private gathering of former top US soldiers,
> intelligence officials and scholars with resumes reaching from the
> Reagan to the Trump administrations.
>
> Short of trained personnel and ammunition, one speaker argued,
> Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky might consider a Chinese peace
> plan, especially after Beijing’s successful mediation of the
> Iran-Saudi dispute.
> […]

Less grand goal may be to make Russia derail "the peace plan" by PRC.
It may make PRC-Russia relations "less warm".

IMHO calling it "PEACE plan" is counter productive.
IMHO Ukraine *may* agree to something called "cessation of hostilities"
but be VERY reluctant to call it (implied permanent) peace without
getting control of East Ukraine back.

--
A. Filip : Big (Tech) Brother is watching you.
| "Engineering meets art in the parking lot and things explode."
| (Garry Peterson, about Survival Research Labs)