https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv

對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？

今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。

習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。

歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。

意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。

美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。

（作者為元智大學助理教授）

On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> （作者為元智大學助理教授）

The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?

What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"

2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.

3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
of democracies.

"Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
rising, while the West is declining.”

Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
" What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "

Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.

On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:27:37 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> of democracies.
> "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> rising, while the West is declining.”
> Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.

Using the framework of good vs evil, the world is always bi-polar. It reflects more
the writer's faith on a certain system, such as liberal democracy, than the real world.

On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:27:37 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> of democracies.
> "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> rising, while the West is declining.”
> Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.

Many countries are conned by the rules-based international order when the order is written by US and its allies in so-called WTO or whatever bodies to set their rules to solve their own confronted problems. In short, they made those rules-based international order to suit themselves. They then amend and change those rules-based order to calibrate to milk, stall, and prevent other countries from advancing on their course of "rules-based international order" that called as "bilateral free trade or multi-lateral free trade" with each other.

On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8:27:37 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> of democracies.
> "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> rising, while the West is declining.”
> Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.

China and Russia could use each other as their chips against the rules-based liberal world order by starting their rules-based basket of international currency order comprising of currency from their participating SCO countries to trade and validate their currency rate, too. That will mean they could put US cold war into cold room storage.

On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:21:45 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:27:37 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> > The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> > https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> > What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> > Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> > 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> > 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> > model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> > There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> > 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> > failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> > The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> > The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> > of democracies.
> > "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> > international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> > home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> > now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> > rising, while the West is declining.”
> > Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> > " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> > in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> > eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> > Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> > and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> > Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> > order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.
> Using the framework of good vs evil, the world is always bi-polar. It reflects more
> the writer's faith on a certain system, such as liberal democracy, than the real world.

Is this kind of good versus evil bipolarism good for world peace?
Or would it destroy the world over time?

On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 9:56:49 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:21:45 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:27:37 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > > > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > > > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > > > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > > > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > > > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > > > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > > > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> > > The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> > > https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> > > What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> > > Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> > > 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> > > 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> > > model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> > > There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> > > 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> > > failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> > > The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> > > The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> > > of democracies.
> > > "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> > > international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> > > home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> > > now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> > > rising, while the West is declining.”
> > > Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> > > " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> > > in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> > > eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> > > Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> > > and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> > > Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> > > order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.
> > Using the framework of good vs evil, the world is always bi-polar. It reflects more
> > the writer's faith on a certain system, such as liberal democracy, than the real world.
> Is this kind of good versus evil bipolarism good for world peace?
> Or would it destroy the world over time?

Which countries do you consider as bipolar. Is Russia and US? Or, do you think multi-polar that consist Russia, China, and US is better in the long term?

On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 4:01:35 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 9:56:49 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:21:45 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:27:37 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > > > > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > > > > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > > > > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > > > > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > > > > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > > > > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > > > > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> > > > The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> > > > https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> > > > What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> > > > Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> > > > 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> > > > 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> > > > model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> > > > There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> > > > 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> > > > failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> > > > The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> > > > The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> > > > of democracies.
> > > > "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> > > > international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> > > > home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> > > > now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> > > > rising, while the West is declining.”
> > > > Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> > > > " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> > > > in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> > > > eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> > > > Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> > > > and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> > > > Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> > > > order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.
> > > Using the framework of good vs evil, the world is always bi-polar. It reflects more
> > > the writer's faith on a certain system, such as liberal democracy, than the real world.
> > Is this kind of good versus evil bipolarism good for world peace?
> > Or would it destroy the world over time?
> Which countries do you consider as bipolar. Is Russia and US? Or, do you think multi-polar that consist Russia, China, and US is better in the long term?

No need to ask anyone.
Which world power sets itself as the world police and describes nations it does not like as "evil empires"?

El viernes, 30 de septiembre de 2022 a las 15:22:43 UTC+2, ltlee1 escribió:
> On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 4:01:35 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> > On Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 9:56:49 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > On Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 11:21:45 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 12:27:37 PM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > > On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 1:30:25 AM UTC, ltlee1 wrote:
> > > > > > https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20220922005157-262104?chdtv
> > > > > > 對於變動中國際秩序的極化性及其不確定性，美國哥倫比亞大學名譽教授萊格沃德認為，兩場冷戰正在新兩極世界，中國在俄烏戰爭中的平衡立場，仍然是中美合作可以擴大的空間。吳玉山院士認為，歐亞兩個戰略斷層線是連動了，海權與陸權的兩個集團爭霸，趨近兩極，儘管中俄屬於鬆散的準盟友關係。那麼，俄羅斯希冀形塑的多極世界又是基於何種想法？
> > > > > > 今年9月5～8日，俄羅斯在其遠東之窗符拉迪沃斯托克舉辦了第7屆「邁向多極世界」的東方經濟論壇。9月14～17日，上海合作組織在烏茲別克的撒馬爾罕召開了元首理事會第22次會議。俄羅斯「向東轉」與中國的「一帶一路」，已經朝著結合成大歐亞能源共同市場，以及大歐亞基礎交通建設互聯通的區域經濟前景邁進了。除了交通帶來的貨物互通有無，以盧布和人民幣共同支付俄羅斯天然氣為例，去美元化的過程，似乎也是對西方實施經濟制裁以達孤立俄國的回應。那麼，在上海合作組織的架構下，一種不結盟且去美元的大歐亞市場，以多文明價值取代美國的民主價值論，正在詮釋杭亭頓在上個世紀90年代，在南斯拉夫內戰後提出的論述，國際秩序將從一超多強「單極的多極體系」走向21世紀的多極體系。
> > > > > > 習近平於14日在新冠疫情後首訪哈薩克斯坦，簽署中哈建交30年聯合公報，並獲得托卡耶夫總統頒贈最高榮譽金鷹勳章。16 日上合組織成員國領袖會晤後發表聯合宣言，強調經貿交通聯繫，促進不同文明對話，共同應對新威脅挑戰，實現繁榮與安全的共同目標。上合組織是全球最大的非結盟地區組織，擁有全世界最豐富的天然資源，超過世界一半的人口都在此居住，創造市場四分之一的經濟總值，具有先進科技的技術潛力與經濟產能。今年伊朗也成為正式會員國，沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林、卡達等中東產油國家成為上合組織的對話夥伴。蒙古是俄羅斯建立第二條通往中國天然氣管道的中轉國家，俄蒙中的天然氣戰略與地緣政治安全連成一線，這對於俄羅斯發展西伯利亞暨遠東經濟，都是具有長遠穩定的作用。
> > > > > > 歐安組織強調的全體和平與安全不可分割原則，曾是冷戰的穩定機制。當前俄羅斯通往德國的北溪天然氣一號遭到關閉，俄羅斯只是順應西方經濟制裁，北溪二號管道也已經灌氣。歐盟內部只要達成協議，打開所有關閉的天然氣開關，如何過冬天取決於歐盟自身。普丁說今年糧食生產有3000萬噸，明年增產到5000萬噸，9成將出口運往亞非拉地區，貨運因經濟制裁滯留歐洲港口。換言之，解決全球糧食危機，俄國把球拋給歐盟。
> > > > > > 意識形態和軍備競賽反映了冷戰的兩條路徑，烏克蘭的分裂戰爭可以說是蘇聯解體後的餘波、新冷戰的序曲。美國2001年退出《反彈道飛彈條約》，2019年退出《中程飛彈條約》，2020年退出《開放天空條約》，美俄喪失了冷戰具有的軍控穩定機制。拜登上任之後，僅是將2011年生效的《新削減戰略武器條約》自動延長5年。自從美俄在今年初談判失敗之後，烏克蘭成為美俄地緣爭奪戰地點，烏克蘭的身分認同夾雜著主權尊嚴，在美俄混合戰的賽局中，剪不斷理還亂。
> > > > > > 美俄以拖延戰爭推動長期政治經濟脫鉤，達到拖垮對方的目的。這樣一來，現階段情況不如冷戰「低盪」時期，美蘇領導人皆認知到核不擴散與限武條約的重要性，形成競爭又合作的長和平狀態。中國在美俄新冷戰對抗中成為第三方受益者，掌握和美國談判避免滑入中美新冷戰的籌碼。
> > > > > > （作者為元智大學助理教授）
> > > > > The above is referring to Robert Legvold's "Two Cold Wars in a New Bipolar World."
> > > > > https://nationalinterest.org/feature/two-cold-wars-new-bipolar-world-204553?
> > > > > What is obvious to Legvold as well as other observers is "the uncertain fate of the “liberal international order."
> > > > > Currently, three theories explaining the uncertain fate of the liberal internal order:
> > > > > 1. "...realist theorists like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt was always something of an illusion"
> > > > > 2. "...Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, the post-Cold War order led by the United States was dissolving into “a
> > > > > model in which many countries choose their own paths to order..."
> > > > > There is different paths toward national prosperity and peace. And nations could choose their own path.
> > > > > 3. "John Ikenberry, it remained in place but under assault, less by its Russian and Chinese challengers than by the
> > > > > failure of its democratic architects to protect it..."
> > > > > The path prescribed per the "liberal international order" is indeed the best possible path but it was abused by China.
> > > > > The liberal international order could be restored if Western democratic can adjust their policies and form a concert
> > > > > of democracies.
> > > > > "Most Western analysts saw it as a combination of the two: the threat posed by Russia and China to a “rules-based
> > > > > international order,” coupled with the growing incapacity of democratic governments to deal with core problems at
> > > > > home and abroad. For Russian and Chinese thinkers, the liberal international order was a conceit of a U.S.-led West
> > > > > now crumbling as other states gained power and asserted their interests—or as a Chinese saying put it, “the East is
> > > > > rising, while the West is declining.”
> > > > > Robert Legvold side stepped the issue of "liberal international order" and asked/suggested
> > > > > " What if the dominant feature of international politics in the decades ahead turns out to be two interlocking cold wars
> > > > > in a new bipolar world? One is already in place. The United States and Russia have been in a new cold war since the
> > > > > eruption of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. "
> > > > > Basically, his view of the bipolar world follows the G John Ikenberry's script. That is, the world is split to a good side
> > > > > and an evil side. The difference between new Cold War against China and new Cold War against Russia per the
> > > > > Taiwanese author above is the both China and Russia, could use each other as their chip against the "liberal world
> > > > > order." And currently China is benefiting from the US-Russia cold war.
> > > > Using the framework of good vs evil, the world is always bi-polar. It reflects more
> > > > the writer's faith on a certain system, such as liberal democracy, than the real world.
> > > Is this kind of good versus evil bipolarism good for world peace?
> > > Or would it destroy the world over time?
> > Which countries do you consider as bipolar. Is Russia and US? Or, do you think multi-polar that consist Russia, China, and US is better in the long term?
> No need to ask anyone.
> Which world power sets itself as the world police and describes nations it does not like as "evil empir
Purchase in Property BG / SBLC
@We work only with the client himself
Bank Offer Calendar - Transmission Procedures and Charges for MT799 and / or MT760 / MT799 Pre-Notice
PROVIDER - A
Currency: USD ($) or EUR (€)
TRANSACTION DESCRIPTION: Purchase full ownership for one term, callable at maturity
1. Instrument: BG / SBLC Cash Backed
2. Total Face Value: $ 150 M up to $ 10 B
3. Tranches: TBA
4. Issuing Banks: HSBC, Barclays Bank PLC, Lloyds Bank PLC, Deutsche Bank AG, NATWEST Bank PLC, Lloyds Bank PLC, Santander Bank PLC, TSB Bank PLC.
5. Term: One Year and One Day (With the option of Rolls and Extension)
6. Format: Cash backed ICC 758
7. Coupon rate: Zero Percent (0%)
8. Purchase price: 40 + 5% BPU required
9. Bank Emission Fees: (see below) before issue
10. Delivery: Bank to Bank Swift MT799 and / or MT760
11. Payment: MT103
12. Hard Copy: By Bank Bonded Courier within 7 banking days after delivery of Swift.
Transaction procedure
1.-The buyer provides the complete CIS with the complete banking coordinates of the receiving bank, including the name of the bank officer, the rank and the complete contact information, the letter of validity of the bank and the introductory commitment commitment.
2. Seller and Buyer execute, sign and initiate the Platform Brokerage Agreement and Deed of Agreement, which thereby automatically becomes a full business recourse contract that must be submitted by both parties for the initiation of Swift Transmission .
3. Within two (2) business days after the Buyer receives the contract documents, executed with the acceptance to continue, the Buyer will send by direct bank transfer to the bank coordinates provided by the Seller to receive the charges from the Bank issuer, transmission and main fast rate. , One-time fee for the BG / SBLC through Swift MT799 Pre-Advice and Swift MT760 for the amount of (see attached)
4. Within two (2) business days after both parties have signed the Agreement, complying with the procedure, the Seller's bank will send its Disposition, Will and Capacity (RWA) to the Buyer's email address through the Secure bank email protocol confirming your ability to issue the bank. instrument.
5. Within three (3) business days after the signing of the Agreement by both parties, the Seller will issue a Corporate Invoice for payment of fees and a Corporate Refund Resource Commitment to the Buyer guaranteeing the refund to the Buyer of all costs incurred by the Buyer as transmission / administrative charges for the transmission of Prior Advice via Swift MT799 and BG / SBLC via Swift MT760, both after due performance of the contract and in the event of default by the Seller, the Corporate Refund Resource Commitment guarantees that the Seller
Fully reimburses transmission / administrative fees, plus a default penalty that is 1% of SBLC's total face value.
6. Within three (3) business days after confirmation of receipt of payment of bank transmission / administrative fees for transmission of BG / SBLC through advance notice through Swift MT799 and Swift MT760 on the Seller's designated bank account, Seller will deliver advance notice from BG or SBLC via Swift MT799 or MT760 bank-to-bank confirmation to the buyer's banker.
7. Within two (2) banking business days, the Recipient's Bank will respond and issue a payment order (BPU) through SWIFT MT799 to the bank accounts designated by the Provider as
stipulated in this Agreement for an amount of 40% of the face value plus 5% of commissions.
8. Thereafter, within one (1) bank business day, the Provider's Bank will issue with full bank responsibility, a fully cash-backed BG / SBLC through SWIFT MT760 (ICC 600 or latest version) (see Annex) to the Recipient's Bank
9. Within two (2) business days after receipt and authentication
SBLC, Receiver's bank will release Buyer's payment Send full BG / SBLC payment via Swift MT103 Same Day Payment to Seller's Designated Accounts (deducting Initially Paid Bank Transfer / Administrative Fees) plus Broker Commission 5% of the total. Value by bank transfer within Two (2) international banking days from the delivery, confirmation and verification of BG or SBLC by MT760 in the account designated by the Buyer
10. The hard copy of BG or SBLC is sent via courier service within seven (7) international banks.
days to the Buyer's bank.
Any unauthorized calls by any party or their representative attorneys to probes or communication in an inappropriate manner.
proper to the bank (s) in this transaction will be prohibited and the contract terminated.
If the Buyer does not pay the purchase price to the Seller and the broker's commission as agreed after Ten (10) business days after the confirmation by BG / SBLC through Swift MT760 to the buyer's bank account, the Seller will indicate the issuing bank filing a claim on the BG / SBLC thereby forcing the Buyer's bankers to return the BG, SBLC to the issuing Bank.
The terms and procedures can be discussed and adapted to a particular transaction.
ATTACHED
These fees can be deferred with escrow and / or bank guarantee only. Corporate or personal guarantees will not be accepted.
If the DD is negative and the Client wishes to repeat a second Due Diligence… A flat fee of EUR 5,000 will be applied for the DD process.
SBLC: Nominal value € / $ Bank transfer / Administrative fees (Euro)
1M - 25M # 58,950 €
50 M # 117,900 €
100 M # 235,800 €
250 M # 589,500 €
500 M # 817,900 €
1,000 M - 10,000 M TBA
The terms and procedures can be discussed and adapted to a particular transaction.
contact:
whatsapp 0034651884888
stars88@gmx.es

On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 9:22:43 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:

> No need to ask anyone.
> Which world power sets itself as the world police and describes nations it does not like as "evil empires"?

US sets itself a world power. But in the coming time, their unipolar world is over. It will be multipolar world. The great powers will set its own tone in the world.

On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 5:36:30 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 9:22:43 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
>
> > No need to ask anyone.
> > Which world power sets itself as the world police and describes nations it does not like as "evil empires"?
> US sets itself a world power. But in the coming time, their unipolar world is over. It will be multipolar world. The great powers will set its own tone in the world.

Not US policy. It has not accepted the reality of regional hegemons such as
China and Russia yet. Under this circumstance, cold wars are inevitable.

On Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 2:30:50 AM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 5:36:30 PM UTC, stoney wrote:
> > On Friday, September 30, 2022 at 9:22:43 PM UTC+8, ltlee1 wrote:
> >
> > > No need to ask anyone.
> > > Which world power sets itself as the world police and describes nations it does not like as "evil empires"?
> > US sets itself a world power. But in the coming time, their unipolar world is over. It will be multipolar world. The great powers will set its own tone in the world.
> Not US policy. It has not accepted the reality of regional hegemons such as
> China and Russia yet. Under this circumstance, cold wars are inevitable.

Yes, world wars are inevitable. This is like one wolf will not easily allow the other wolves to emerge as leader. The leader will not allow other to join in their territorial space in the forest but to reject them. In short, US will fight to the end by slandering, smearing, and even sabotaging them too. If still not enough, the ultimate is to engage in a dog-fight to show whose teeth is more powerful than the other.